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Juventus vs AC Milan Odds & Pick: Coppa Italia Semifinals Leg 2

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 12:07 PM PDT

It's the second leg of the Coppa Italia semifinals this week with, first up, Juve entertaining AC Milan at the Allianz Stadium and then Inter heading to Napoli for the second semifinal. We take a look at the best bet for Wednesday's match here.
  • The second legs of the 2019/20 Coppa Italia semifinals are this week
  • AC Milan and Juventus drew 1-1 in the San Siro in the first leg, so still all to play for
  • Read on for a preview of the game, odds and the best bet

It’s the second leg of the Coppa Italia semifinals this week with, first up, Juve entertaining AC Milan at the Allianz Stadium and then Inter heading to Napoli for the second semifinal.

The Juve/AC tie is finely balanced at 1-1, so we’re going to take a look and see if there are some value bets here for the punters for their match on Wednesday, March 4, 2020, at 2:45 pm EST.

Juventus vs AC Milan Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Juventus -1.0 (-107) -182 O 2.5, 3.0 (+101)
AC Milan +1.0 (-113) +440 U 2.5, 3.0 (-121)
Draw N/A +295 N/A

All odds taken Mar. 1.

Odds-On Juve

Juventus starts this one as odds-on favorites but after the first leg ended 1-1 and with Juve at nothing like their best, for AC this tie is still very much alive.

The Old Lady needed a 91st-minute penalty from Cristiano Ronaldo to salvage a draw in the San Siro – after Ante Rebic had given AC Milan the lead just after the hour mark – but the Red and Black ended the game with ten men after Theo Hernandez was sent off with 20 minutes left after picking up his second booking of the night.

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Fortress Allianz

Juve’s home form is good though and they come into this game off the back of a six-game winning run, which includes four clean sheets. This, together with home advantage, is why oddsmakers have them at -182 for the win.

On the road, things have been a little more difficult for Juventus and last time out they were beaten 1-0 in Lyon in their Champions League round-of-16 first leg, while Milan come into this straight off the back of a 1-1 draw with Fiorentina in Serie A. Juve had a clear weekend as their game was canceled due to the coronavirus outbreak, so they will be fresh.

  Juventus vs AC Milan Head-to-Head Stats

Juventus
VS
AC Milan
3 Coppa Italia games played 2019/20 3
8 Goals scored in competition 8
2 Goals conceded in competition 3
62 Possession in first leg (%) 38
21/11 Shots in first leg/shots on target 14/4
3 Corners in first leg 3
16 Fouls in first leg 14

Milan Struggling on the Road

Milan’s form on the road is far from ideal, especially coming into a game they need to win, although the optimists will point to two wins in their last five away games. But this is Juve they’re up against, which makes the win doubly difficult, with the Old Lady in touching distance of another Coppa Italia final. And, as if they need reminding, Milan have not been victorious in any of their last 11 games against Juve.

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But, nevertheless, these are still usually tight games and only once in their previous five meetings have these two combined to score more than twice in a game. Both teams are set up to be solid defensively, so let’s not expect a goal-fest.

Low Scoring Game Incoming

The smart money here will probably be on a single goal victory – either a 1-0 or a 2-1 – although it’s quite possible, if AC Milan can quell the threat of Ronaldo and co, it could take extra-time, maybe even penalties, to separate them. Only an early goal for Milan would give them a chance of doing it in 90 minutes, but it’s conceivable they could get to 90 minutes level.

I think Juve may ultimately have just too much, but there is certainly value here in the draw, even if the Old Lady may edge it in extra-time.

Pick: Juve and AC Milan to draw after 90 minutes (+295); Juve to win 2-1 aet.

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