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Juventus vs Sevilla Odds & Prediction – Europa League Semifinals Leg 1

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer News

Updated May 10, 2023 · 6:05 PM PDT

La Liga Matchday 29
Sevilla's Youssef En-Nesyri in action during the Spanish La Liga soccer match between Sevilla and Real Betis at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan stadium in Seville, Spain, Sunday, March 14, 2021. (AP Photo/Mateo Villalba)
  • Juventus hosts Sevilla in the first leg of their Europe League semifinal tie on Thursday, May 11th, at 3:00 pm ET
  • The hosts are 2-1-1 all time against Sevillistas Los Rojiblancos
  • Get our Juventus vs Sevilla prediction and odds below

Thursday’s Europa League slate features two matches, including Juventus vs Sevilla at the Allianz Stadium in Turin. For a football fan, this match in particular oozes football heritage. Two historic clubs meeting on a knockout stage, in somewhat foreign circumstances. Juventus obviously faced a drastic point deduction this year and Sevilla are looking at a bottom half finish in La Liga, which has not happened since they were relegated in 2000. Our Juventus vs Sevilla prediction looks to pick through these struggles and balance them with what we know from a historical perspective.

Juventus vs Sevilla Odds

Matchup Moneyline Odds
Juventus -125
Sevilla +400
Draw +255

Overall, Juventus are the favorites at home with moneyline odds of -125, equating to an implied win probability of 55.6%. This might come as a surprise to most, considering Juventus’ poor form in the last month of play. The Old Lady is only a mere 3-3-4 across all competitions in their last ten, a record they will want to soon erase from the memory bank. Conversely, while a Sevilla win seems lofty, a play on the draw no bet in their favor sits at +255. The Spanish side has only lost twice in their last ten and this play offers serious returns.

In the Europa League odds, Juventus are the favorites to lift the cup at +200. Meanwhile, Sevilla have the longest odds in the remaining pool of teams at +350.

 

Juventus vs Sevilla odds as of  May 10th from DraftKings Sportsbook. Want a great soccer bonus for the DFB-Pokal?

All in all, these two sides are the fourth and second-most decorated Europa League sides. Sevilla are basically Europa League royalty, having lifted the cup six different times since 2006 and Juventus have won on three occasions all within the 70s and 90′. With that being said, anything can happen on Thursday, even with the disarray of these two massive clubs.

 

Juventus vs Sevilla Over/Under

Additionally, this game is expected to be a snoozer in terms of offensive productivity. In fact, the under on 2.5 total goals currently sits at a juicy -160; the reverse option offers plus odds of +130. Across their last twenty combined matches, the over on this total has only hit 35% of the time. While playing the under market does not offer much value, you can instead look at fading both teams to score. This play has odds of -130, which are not the best, but still gives a nice angle on this game being quiet on the goal front.

Juventus vs Sevilla Props – En-Nesyri to Bag a Goal

Another play I really favor on Thursday is Youssef En-Nesyri to score anytime. The Moroccan forward has the sixth longest odds to score at +270, but is the most likely to score in this Sevilla side. José Luis Mendilibar’s front man has 17 goals to his name this season, 11 more than any other player in the squad. Moreover, he is scoring 0.63 goals per ninety minutes, which is an amazing clip. While he has drawn a blank in his last three outings, he has five in ten in European play this year, with a brace in their last Europa League match versus Manchester United.

Juventus vs Sevilla Projected Lineups and Injuries

Juventus Projected Lineup: Szczesny, Kostic, Sandro, Danilo, Bremer, Cuadrado, Rabiot, Locatelli, Fagioli, Di Maria, Vlahovic

Major Injuries & Absences: De Sciglio

Sevilla Projected Lineup: Bounou, Acuna, Marcao, Bade, Navas, Fernando, Rakitic, Torres, Lamela, En-Nesyri, Ocampos

Major Injuries & Absences: Zianzou, Suso

Sevilla’s Europa League Success is Astounding

Not to beat a dead horse, but it is almost silly to think about betting against Sevilla in the Europa League. Their overall record in this competition is 91-31-33 (58.7% win rate), with a truly ridiculous goal differential of +149.

Juventus vs Sevilla Head-to-Head Statistics

Juventus
VS
Sevilla
1.17 Goals per game 1.33
1.59 Expected goals per game 0.85
1.25 Goals allowed per game 1.33
1.34 Expected goals allowed per game 1.53
48.8% Possession % 48.4%
33.3% Clean Sheet % 41.7%
13.6 Shots per game 11.5
W-W-D-L-L Recent Form Guide (All Comps) W-L-W-W-W

Stats in the table from 2022/23 European play.

Also, do not underestimate the fact that they are just a team who has been here before. This includes fans, players and really everyone at the club. Deep runs in the Europa League are the norm for Sevilla. For Juventus, outside of a few senior players, this is all new territory for a side that has seen extreme turnover in recent years. They really lack an identity, which has been more than apparent in recent weeks. Sevilla are the giant slayers, and can take down Juventus just like Manchester United.

YouTube video

Juventus vs Sevilla Prediction

Overall, I am still hedging my faith in Sevilla with a draw no bet play in addition to riding with Youseff En-Nesyri to score.

Juventus vs Sevilla Picks: Sevilla draw no bet (+255), En-Nesyri to score (+270)

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