La Liga Matchday 15 Odds & Picks: Valencia vs Sevilla, Sociedad vs Atletico & More

• A special mid-week slate of La Liga games kicks off on Tuesday at 11:30 am ET, when Valencia entertains Sevilla and Elche faces Osasuna simultaneously to begin Matchday 15
• Free-falling Real Sociedad — still miraculously within grasp of the top of the table, despite a five-game winless skid — host league leaders Atletico Madrid on Tuesday (1:45 pm), while there could be ‘Under’ value in a bottom-half contest between Alaves and Eibar on Wednesday (4:00 pm)
• Get all the odds and best bets for Matchday 15 in Spain’s La Liga below

The vast majority of the time in Europe’s largest soccer leagues, the cream rises to the top. It appears the 2020-21 La Liga season will offer no surprise at its summit, after all; Real Sociedad’s early-season push has been washed out in recent weeks, with the major Madrid clubs surging ahead into a title race and Barcelona finally clawing its way into the top five ahead of La Liga Matchday 15.

Matchday 15’s opening contest provides both big clubs — Valencia and Sevilla — and intriguing storylines; the former is closer to the relegation zone than top half with a threadbare roster, while the latter looks to be in for a dogfight over the fourth and final Champions League place this season.

Elsewhere, Alaves entertains Eibar in a key relegation contest on Wednesday (4:00 pm EST).

La Liga Matchday 15 Odds

All odds taken Dec 20 at DraftKings

Note: 61-percent of La Liga matches have hit the Under 2.5 this season, a stark contrast to the rates of 54, 53 and 49-percent over the past three completed seasons.

This column-like many bettors — has been hit by La Liga’s downturn in scoring this season, to the tune of a 3-6 record on Over 2.5 or 3.5 picks. As such, we will shy away from ‘Overs’ until it can be determined whether this shift is here to stay.

Pick 1: Valencia vs Sevilla

It was clear for all to see at the beginning of the season that Valencia (3-6-5) was not going to be a strong team: Ferran Torres and Rodrigo departed for England in August and were hardly replaced.

Javi Gracia’s side has had tough timing: When the goals are flowing so too are the conceded goals, and when the defense shows up the side’s attacking well runs dry.

Sevilla (6-2-4) is by now a known quantity under Julen Lopetegui: Efficient and — especially in league play — a favorite of the Under 2.5 bettor. A 1-1 draw at home against Valladolid on Saturday was disappointing for the Nervionenses.

While results have been mixed over the last five league meetings between the two (Valencia leads 2-1 with two draws), Under bettors have had success in four of those five.

Pick: Under 2.5 (-143)

Pick 2: Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid

In terms of trends, Real Sociedad (7-5-3) is headed in the complete wrong direction while Atleti’s (9-2-1) — blip derby loss at Real Madrid aside — is surging in both league play and into the Champions League knockout round.

Sociedad’s squad is thinner than its top-five counterparts to begin with; factoring in European play, Tuesday’s game will be the squad’s fifth in just 12 days — including trips to Valencia (Levante), Barcelona and Italy (Napoli). Conversely, it will be Atleti’s fourth in 13.

The rojiblancos are Spain’s best team over the last eight matchdays (7-0-1); Sociedad are a middling eighth in that same timeframe.

Bet on Diego Simeone’s side in La Liga Matchday 15 to grind out yet another road result and continue their hosts’ slide.

Pick: Atletico Madrid (+140)

Pick 3: Alaves vs Eibar

We promised not to get greedy on total goals plays, but with Alaves (3-5-6) and Eibar (3-6-5) — two of La Liga’s worst attacking teams — colliding on Wednesday there is one aggressive play worth looking at.

Eibar has seen a league-low 57-percent of its matches feature Over 1.5 goals, with Alaves’ 64-percent the third-lowest mark; Wednesday’s hosts have been remarkably been shut out in five of eight home matches this season.

With critical points up for grabs between these two early-season relegation candidates, expect a low-scoring affair at Mendizorroza on La Liga Matchday 15 to lead into the week-long Christmas pause.

PICK: Under 1.5 (+145)