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Liga NOS Matchday 30 Odds & Picks: Relegation Dogfight Inbound

Carlos Verde

by Carlos Verde in Soccer News

Updated Mar 10, 2021 · 1:52 PM PST

Swansea vs Middlesborough
The ball is seen during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Manchester City at Old Trafford Stadium, Manchester, England, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2015. (AP Photo/Jon Super)
  • Benfica’s horrific run of form has allowed Porto to open up a six-point lead atop the Liga NOS table, putting the pressure on the former entering their Saturday match vs. Boavista
  • At the bottom of the league table, six teams are within four points of the final relegation spot — currently held by surging Portimonense
  • Get all the odds and best bets for Matchday 30 in Portugal below

Porto are -455 favorites at home against sliding Belenenses (+1250) on Sunday, with a chance to take a large step towards clinching just the club’s second league title since 2013.

Benfica will be in for a stiffer test than their -323 moneyline value would indicate against Boavista (+950), who have won three of their last four matches to definitively remove themselves from the relegation muck.

Vitoria Setubal (+230) just gassed manager Julio Velazquez, and will face Pacos Ferreira (+120) in a key relegation clash; the Vitorianos have slipped from potential long-shots to make Europe earlier this season down to just three points clear of the drop zone.

From the top-5 to the relegation zone, there are plenty of great matches on deck in the Liga NOS’s Matchday 30; the fun gets started with Santa Clara and Maritimo at 2:15 pm EST on Friday.

Liga NOS Matchday 30 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Santa Clara pk, -0.5 (-105) +134 O 2, 2.5 (+100)
Maritimo pk, +0.5 (-115) +230 U 2, 2.5 (-120)
Draw N/A +215 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Vit. Setubal pk, +0.5 (-106) +230 O 2 (-109)
Pacos Ferreira pk, -0.5 (-114) +120 U 2 (-111)
Draw N/A +210 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Portimonense pk, +0.5 (-101) +235 O 2, 2.5 (-107)
Vit. Guimaraes pk, -0.5 (-119) +115 U 2, 2.5 (-113)
Draw N/A +220 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Benfica -1.5 (-106) -323 O 2.5, 3 (+101)
Boavista +1.5 (-114) +950 U 2.5, 3 (-121)
Draw N/A +350 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Sporting Braga -1.5, 2 (-121) -500 O 3 (+101)
Aves +1.5, 2 (+101) +1200 U 3 (-121)
Draw N/A +480 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Gil Vicente +0.5 (-125) +245 O 2 (-128)
Rio Ave -0.5 (+105) +105 U 2 (+108)
Draw N/A +220 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Tondela pk, +0.5 (-108) +215 O 2, 2.5 (-108)
Famalicao pk, -0.5 (-112) +125 U 2, 2.5 (-112)
Draw N/A +215 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
FC Porto -1.5, 2 (-112) -455 O 2.5, 3 (-111)
Belenenses +1.5, 2 (-108) +1250 U 2.5, 3 (-109)
Draw N/A +440 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Moreirense +0.5 (+101) +330 O 2.5 (-106)
Sporting Lisbon -0.5 (-121) -121 U 2.5 (-114)
Draw N/A +230 N/A

All odds taken July 3

Pick 1: Vitoria Setubal vs. Pacos Ferreira

Vitoria Setubal (6-12-11) are in shambles: The club relieved Julio Velazquez of managerial duties this week just days after strongly denying media reports of the same vein, cancelled Italian youngster Mirko Antonucci’s loan from Roma after social media videos, and the squad has been outscored 7-2 during its current three-game skid.

Pacos Ferreira (9-4-16) are a bit more stable, though just a single point ahead of Setubal and four points clear of the drop: Manager Pepa has prior experience steering clubs clear of relegation with Tondela, and Pacos have posted a relatively red-hot 3-0-2 record post-COVID.

YouTube video

Setubal are in free fall and Pacos look poised to elevate themselves from the pack at the bottom.

Pick: Pacos Ferreira +120

Pick 2: Sporting Braga vs. Aves

Our mantra in recent weeks has been hammer whichever team is playing Aves (4-2-23), who have reached a new low this season with zero goals in the five games since the restart.

It hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for Braga (15-5-9), who have dropped three of five matches since the restart and fallen behind Sporting in the race for third place.

While the results haven’t been there for Braga since the restart, their matches have featured plenty of goals: Three of their five matches have featured five or more goals, and Aves are the worst defensive team in the league (55 GA) by far.

PICK: O 3 (+121)

Pick 3: Gil Vicente vs. Rio Ave

By all accounts, it’s been a successful season for Vitor Oliveira’s Gil Vicente (8-9-12); they’ve claimed some big-three scalps, and sit a comfortable six points clear of the relegation zone.

It’s been an even better campaign for Carlos Carvalhal’s Rio Ave (13-8-8), which sits a remarkable fifth place despite a rollercoaster of results since the COVID break including a wild 4-3 win over Braga on Tuesday.

YouTube video

Goals have not been an issue for either team, with a combined 80% of their post-break games featuring three goals or more.

PICK: O 2 (-128)

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