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Mexico vs Brazil Odds & Prediction – Olympic Men’s Soccer Semifinals

John Dillon

by John Dillon in Soccer News

Updated Aug 2, 2021 · 7:12 AM PDT

Brazil soccer
Brazil's Richarlison, right, and Egypt's Akram Tawfik battle for the ball during a men's quarterfinal soccer match at the 2020 Summer Olympics, Saturday, July 31, 2021, in Saitama, Japan. (AP Photo/Martin Mejia)
  • High-scoring Mexicans take on 2016 gold medallist Brazil at 4:00 am ET on Tuesday
  • Mexico won nine-goal thriller in last eight against S.Korea while Brazil edged past Egypt
  • See odds, best bets & preview for Mexico vs Brazil – Olympic Men’s Soccer Semifinals

Mexico meets Brazil in the Semifinal of the Men’s Olympic soccer tournament in Japan on Tuesday in a repeat of the 2012 final. The Mexican team heads into the game in Kashima off the back of a wild 6-3 defeat of South Korea in the last eight.

For Brazil, meanwhile, progress was more sedate as it maneuvered past Egypt in a 1-0 win despite dominating play throughout.

Mexico vs Brazil Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Mexico vs Brazil MEX +0.5 (-155) | BRA -0.5 (-105) MEX +250 | BRA +110 | DRAW +255 Ov 2.5 (-120) | Un 2.5 (-105)

Odds as of August 2 at DraftKings

Brazil is the reigning champion following a win on penalties against Germany at the 2016 Games in Rio De Janeiro.

Previously, Mexico defeated Brazil 2-1 at the 2012 final at Wembley in London. This was the only prior Olympic meeting of these Under 23 teams.

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Now Brazil is favored to progress to a third consecutive final even though it is Mexico that has been the more flamboyant outfit. It has hit no fewer than 14 goals in its four games at these Olympics.

Brazil Undefeated at Tournament

However, Brazil is undefeated at the tournament while Mexico lost one group game by 2-1 against the host nation Japan, at Draftkings, Brazil is favored to win at +110.

Meanwhile, Mexico is priced as the outsider at +255 with the draw at +260. There is an early start for US followers of the Games with kick-off at 4:00 am ET.

A look at the Prop offers could be attractive here. In particular, the odds of +240 for a one-goal Winning Margin for Brazil certainly catch the eye. With only three goals conceded by Brazil, Mexico will surely find it harder to come by goals this time around.

This is especially true with the Brazilian team led by the 38-year superstar former Barcelona full-back Dani Alves.

If so, it will be massively in contrast with Mexico’s thrilling Quarterfinal game. It took the lead against the South Koreans through Henry Martin after only 12 minutes. An equalizer from Lee Dong-gyeong leveled the scores after 20 minutes.

But Mexico’s lead was then subsequently restored by Luis Romo.

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A penalty strike from Sebastian Cordova made it 3-1 to the Mexicans before half-time But then another goal from Dong-gyeong reduced the arrears after the break. Mexico displayed its hunger by replying again through Martin only three minutes afterward to make it 4-2.

Cordova then scored again with Eduardo Aguirre adding another six minutes from time – with South Korea clawing back one more in added time for a 6-3 finish.

Mexico vs Brazil Statistics

Mexico
VS
Brazil
3 Wins 3
0 Draws 1
1 Losses 0
14 Goals 8
6 Goals Against 3
7 Yellow Cards 5
2 Red Cards 1
1 Clean Sheets 2

Certainly, this displayed the fact that Mexico is dangerous going forward but can be vulnerable to the kind of predatory attacking skills possessed by the Brazilians.

The Mexicans had, however, conceded only three times in the group stage – so they may be tighter than Brazil expects.

Mexico Strikes Late On

Moreover, Mexico is adept at scoring late – with nine of its goals coming after half-time to prove its determination and resilience. Four of its strikes, in particular, have arrived after the 80th minute.

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Meanwhile, Brazil was dominant against Egypt but could not add the 37th-minute strike from Matheus Cunha which delivered its win. Brazil has by comparison displayed good finishing skills at the tournament while also struggling in two games to make its possession-based dominance emphatically count.

It firstly overcame Germany 4-2 in its opening group game with striker Richarlison of Everton scoring a hat-trick.

But secondly, however, came a 0-0 draw with Ivory Coast. Richarlison subsequently scored twice more – along with Cunha – in a 3-1 win against Saudi Arabia. Mexico, moreover, gave notice of its attacking intentions early on with a 4-1 opening game defeat of France.

A defeat by Japan followed. But then Mexico further hit the heights with a 3-0 win against South Africa. Although Brazil’s Richarlison is the tournament’s leading scorer with five goals, Mexico has four men in the top 10. These are Martin and Cordova who have three each – and Aguirre and Romo who have two apiece.

Seven Different Marksmen

Furthermore, no fewer than seven different players have hit the net for Mexico.

In contrast, Richarlison, Cunha – with two – and Paulinho – are Brazil’s only marksmen thus far.

Cunha could miss the game with a knee injury.

Even so, the fact that Brazil has yet to be behind at any stage in the competition makes it clear why they are the favorites.

In conclusion, Brazil should win but it could be high-scoring from both sides – accordingly making the winning margin a close one.

Pick: Brazil to Win By Exactly 1 Goal (+240) 

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