MLS Cup Playoffs Round One Odds & Best Bets

• The Audi 2019 MLS Cup Playoffs begin this weekend with Round One
• First-place sides New York City FC and Los Angeles FC are on bye
• See the odds and best bets for this weekends first round of matches below

Round One of the MLS Cup Playoffs begins this weekend with six matches spread over Saturday and Sunday. With the league’s new single-elimination playoff format, how important will home-field prove to be as teams aim to advance to the Conference Semifinals next week.

Let’s break down a couple of best bets for this weekend’s Round One matches.

MLS Cup Playoffs Round One Odds

*All odds taken 10/17/19

Pick 1: Atlanta United vs New England Revolution

Second place Atlanta will host seventh-place New England Revolution in the Eastern Conference at 1:00 pm EST at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon.

The Five Stripes were always expected to be here. Last year’s champions got off to a slow start in 2019, but then reeled off wins in 17 of their next 28 league matches. Atlanta have lost just three MLS matches since August 19, a stretch of 11 games.

They’ve already won the Campeones and US Open Cups this season and now will be taking aim at a third trophy in just a few month period.

There are many champions.
But only true icons rewrite history.

This is when Kings Become Legends ?#UniteAndConquer pic.twitter.com/xO7WuozcHm

— Atlanta United FC (@ATLUTD) October 18, 2019

Opening the MLS Cup Playoffs at home to the New England Revolution bodes well for their chances of advancing into the Conference Semifinals. Atlanta closed out the regular season with a 3-1 home win against this same Revolution side. It was their second win over New England this year, as they were 2-0 winners in Foxborough earlier this season.

It’s a short sample size with Atlanta still being relatively new to the league, yet in six overall head-to-head meetings, Atlanta are undefeated against the Revs with a 4-0-2 (WLD) record. They’ve won the past three meetings between the sides and all three which have been played in Atlanta.

In six overall head-to-head meetings, Atlanta are undefeated against the Revs with a 4-0-2 (WLD) record.

Bruce Arena righted the ship in New England this season and guided the team into what looked like an unlikely playoff position earlier this season. With Carles Gil and Gustavo Bou, New England have been one of the league’s hottest teams in the second half of the season. They’ve lost just three times in their past 22 league matches.

However, down the stretch, wins have been hard to come by for New England with just two in their past 11. A closer look will also show the wins they have recorded recently haven’t come against the league’s best.

A Week 30 home win over NYCFC is impressive, but their previous six wins have all come to non-playoff teams in Chicago, Orlando, Cincinnati, Vancouver, Colorado and Houston.

Atlanta suffered a scare in losing Josef Martinez to what looked like a serious knee injury late in the season, but he returned on Decision Day, scoring once and assisting on two others against New England.

Martinez had 27 goals on the year and had a 15-game scoring streak prior to his injury. He doesn’t offer much value, but an “Anytime goalscorer” bet on Martinez at -227 would seem to be a sure-thing.

Pick: Atlanta United and Over 1.5 Goals (-200)

Pick 2: Seattle Sounders vs FC Dallas

In a one-game playoff, earning home-field is extremely important. That’s exactly what the Sounders did in finishing second in the Western Conference with a 16-10-8 (WLD) record and ranking among the West’s top teams for much of the season.

A home game at CenturyLink Field where they were 11-2-4, fairly gives them the edge in the odds.

The Sounders closed out the regular season with 1-0 wins over San Jose and Minnesota and won five of their final eight matches, while only losing twice.

It's all on the line this weekend.

Let's ride.#FightForAll | #DTID pic.twitter.com/PSDBk9cC7W

— Dallas Burn (@FCDallas) October 17, 2019

I’m actually surprised the price does not favor Seattle a little more, given Dallas were one of four teams battling for the final playoff spots in the West on Decision Day.

And while yes, they closed out the year strong with a 6-0 thrashing of Sporting Kansas City, KC were already eliminated, Dallas was at home, and it was FCD’s first win since the end of August.

Prior to that, they had gone 0-2-2, while only scoring once in those four matches.

Dallas saw three of their final four matches fall Under 3.5 and were 10-24 (O/U) on totals of 3.5 and 5-29 to totals of 4.5.

Road games have also not been kind to Luchi Gonzalez’s side, as they have just three wins (3-11-3) all season. On the road, Dallas ranked only above the Houston Dynamo on points with 12, which also tied them with the Earthquakes. Houston had just six road points. League-wide, FC Cincinnati also had 12 road points, while Chicago Fire had 11. Not the best company to be keeping.

However, Dallas was undefeated against Seattle this season with a win and draw, but have failed to win in the Emerald City in the past 13 competitive head-to-head matches.

The Sounders experience (MLS Cup Finals in 2016/2017) and their firepower, (Rual Ruidiaz, Jordan Morris, Nicolas Lodeiro et al) will be too much.

11 Seasons, 11 Postseasons

The @Audi 2019 #MLSCupPlayoffs are here…

and we are Built for This ➡️ https://t.co/1ASbfadXYJ pic.twitter.com/rs9uUhb5wC

— Seattle Sounders FC (@SoundersFC) October 7, 2019

I’m happy with a straight Sounders win, but for a little extra value a Seattle win and Under 3.5 total goals (+180) or Seattle win and Under 4.5 total goals (+125) could also be worth a bet.

Each of the past four Seattle matches fell under three total goals, as well as four of their past five. The Sounders were also 11-23 (O/U) with 3.5 goals and 9-25 with 4.5 goals this season.

Dallas saw three of their final four matches fall Under 3.5 and were 10-24 (O/U) on totals of 3.5 and 5-29 to totals of 4.5.

Both Dallas/Seattle matches this season finished below 3.5 goals with 0-0 and 2-1 results.

Pick: Seattle Sounders win (-130)