MLS is Back Odds & Predictions July 18: Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo & LAFC vs LA Galaxy

• MLS is Back Group F continues with each team’s second fixture on Saturday night, July 18
• LA’s El Trafico rivalry is renewed in Orlando in the late game at 10:30 pm EST
• Read on for our preview and best bet for each of Saturday’s MLS is Back Group F matches below

Group F provided plenty of talking points from it’s first round of fixtures earlier this week. First up was the Dynamo who ended in a wild 3-3 draw with LAFC. The following match saw Portland claim a 2-1 win over the Galaxy to go tops in the group.

After a rather slow, low-scoring start to the tournament, those results, along with Toronto and DC’s 2-2 draw earlier on the same day, were the start of what’s turned into more of what we’re used to in MLS—wild results, chaos and tons of goals. The first eight games saw 15 total goals good for a lowly average of 1.88 per game. However, the next ten matches have seen 40 goals, good for 4.0 GPG. That’s included a 4-3 result on both Wednesday and Thursday, and a hat-trick from TFC youngster Ayo Akinola.

As of this writing on Friday, Orlando, Philadelphia and Columbus have now all confirmed their progression to the knockout round. But let’s get back to Saturday’s games and take a look at some best bets from Group F’s second round of fixtures.

MLS is Back July 18 Odds

On Monday, Portland entered halftime drawn 0-0 with the LA Galaxy. Sebastian Blanco delivered for the Timbers in the second half though, first setting up Jeremy Ebobisse for the first goal, and then scoring his own seven minutes later. Portland looked to be well and clear for the win, but a late red card gave LA life and Chicharito was able to score his first goal for the Galaxy and in MLS in the 88′ minute. It was too little too late though in what ended 2-1 for Portland. However, Portland were lucky to have not conceded earlier when Chicharito missed a first-half penalty.

Overall several key stats were relatively split with LA edging the possession battle with 51.7-percent, as well as attempts (13-12), but Portland registering more shots on target (6-4).

Houston could not have asked for a better start to the tournament as they jumped out to a 3-1 lead at the half over LAFC on Monday. Memo Rodriguez scored twice, with Albert Elis scoring the other.

Sebastián Blanco is on fire right now. #LAvPOR | #RCTID pic.twitter.com/RQqAB7PVf5

— Portland Timbers (@TimbersFC) July 14, 2020

Taking over for Carlos Vela, Bradley Wright-Phillips had LAFC’s lone first-half goal. As good as the scored looked for Houston, it was only a matter of time before LAFC added some more to the scoresheet.

LAFC finished the game with 71.6-percent possession and had 23 attempts on goal compared to just nine for the Dynamo. Those attempts eventually found the back of the net with Diego Rossi and Brian Rodriguez each scoring within six minutes to level the game at 3-3. Another glaring stat is that the Dynamo had only 82 final third passes, compared to the 215 of LAFC. If they can’t improve on that, surely Portland will find their chances on Saturday.

In the very short two-game sample size we have from earlier this year, Houston drew 1-1 with the Galaxy and lost 4-0 to Sporting Kansas City. For Portland, they fell 3-1 to Minnesota but defeated Nashville 1-0.

There’s plenty of attacking firepower on the field for both teams in this one and it seems hard to envision an ending that doesn’t see a few goals scored. Last year the teams drew 1-1 in Houston, and the Timbers won 4-0 in Portland. In their last 14 meetings, 11 have seen both teams score, as well as four of the past five.

Pick: Both teams to score & Over 2.5 goals (-110)

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Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy

El Trafico comes to Orlando at 10:30 pm EST following the match above late Saturday night. We’ve already covered each team’s tournament results in the preview above, so let’s recap a little El Trafico history.

The atmosphere won’t quite be the same without the raucous crowds of either team, but any meeting between the two LA-based clubs will surely offer fireworks as we’ve seen in their short rivalry so far.

Last season the Galaxy extended their regular season dominance over LAFC with a 3-2 win and 3-3 draw. They were also undefeated in 2018, winning 4-3 and drawing 2-2 and 1-1. However, it was LAFC who got the last laugh with a 5-3 win in last fall’s Western Conference Semifinals. So for those counting, that’s both teams scoring in all six meetings and forget OVER 2.5 totals, OVER 3.5 totals are 5-1.

Earlier this year, LAFC began the season with a 1-0 win over Inter Miami, followed by a 3-3 draw with Philadelphia. The Galaxy drew 1-1 with Houston and lost 1-0 to the Whitecaps.

Having now scored his first goal in the league, the hope will be that the weight has been lifted off Chicharito’s shoulders and the goals may start to flow. That’s the hope. But despite his goal, he also missed a penalty and was unable to finish other opportunities. Their goal also came while up a man versus Portland and only in the 88′ minute.

The type of movement Chicharito built his career on, but also the definition of ball-watching from the Portland defenders #LAGalaxy pic.twitter.com/H8Ll3qYbH8

— James Nalton (@JDNalton) July 14, 2020

In three games this year, the Galaxy now have just three goals, and one through a PK. Their offense has not looked potent, either earlier this year or on Monday.

Despite being without Vela, LAFC still found three different goal-scorers on Monday. They’ve now scored seven goals in three games. It’ll be a different rivalry without Vela or Zlatan present, but there’ll still be plenty of firepower on the field to continue the high-scoring results we’ve been seeing of late at MLS is Back.

LAFC looks to be the stronger side right now and should win (-150), though I think the Galaxy will be motivated to at least contribute to the scoresheet in this rivalry. LAFC to win and both teams to score at +180 looks like the best value play. But I’m perfectly happy backing another play of both teams to score & OVER 2.5 goals at -138.

I’ve also already made a bet with both Saturday games simply seeing both teams to score in a two-game parlay at +136 odds.