MLS is Back Tournament Day 5 Odds & Picks on July 12

• Three matches take place on Sunday in Day 5 of the MLS is Back Tournament
• Playoff rematch between Toronto and DC, while four undefeated teams meet at night
• Read on for the odds and best bets for the MLS is Back July 12 matches below

Three games are now in the books as of this writing at the MLS is Back Tournament in Orlando. Champions Seattle will take on San Jose later tonight, while Atlanta vs New York and Cincinnati vs Columbus in Group E will play tomorrow.

The first three games though saw some trends worth monitoring over the weekend to see if they continue. If not for Nani’s 97′ minute winner for Orlando on Wednesday, UNDER 2.5 totals would have been 3-0 instead of 2-1. Orlando were 2-1 winners, while Philadelphia and New England each won their debuts 1-0. Also, so far zero goals have been scored in the first halves of any game so far.

As we look forward, Sunday offers the first three-match day with MLS Cup finalists playing DC United in the morning and all four Group D teams playing in the evening. Read on for our best bets from Day 5 below.

MLS is Back July 12 Odds

All odds taken July 10

Toronto FC vs DC United

This match was originally scheduled for Friday night but was postponed until Sunday at 9:00 am EST to accommodate Toronto’s delayed departure to Orlando.

This one will be a rematch of last year’s knockout round playoffs. The final scoreline of TFC winning 5-1 was not indicative of the actual game. Toronto led 1-0 through a Marky Delgado goal in the 32′ minute, the game’s only goal until DC drew level with a stoppage-time 93′ minute tying goal. Toronto exploded out of the gates in extra-time though, with goals at the 93′, 95′, 103′ and 106′ minutes to earn the lopsided result.

Their two previous meetings in the regular season ended 1-1 and 0-0.

In the two rounds of regular season matches we saw earlier this year, TFC drew 2-2 with San Jose when the Earthquakes scored to tie in stoppage time, and TFC were 1-0 winners over NYCFC.

DC’s two results both ended in 2-1 scorelines, a 2-1 defeat to Colorado and 2-1 win over Inter Miami.

To note, of the four matches these teams played, only 2/11 goals were scored in the first half and one was an Alejandro Pozuelo penalty.

Group C action starts tonight 🔜 @TSNSoccer sets the table ahead of kickoff. #MLSisBack | #TFCLive pic.twitter.com/SB9KxAFkWk

— Toronto FC (@TorontoFC) July 9, 2020

These are two strong defensive sides who will likely take some time to feel each other out in the early goings of this one. Toronto is lined as pretty large favorites in this one but DC are no slouches with their additions this offseason. With tired legs at 9:00 am, I think finding +140 odds for a half-time draw is fantastic value.

Pick: Half-time Draw (+140)

Sporting KC vs Minnesota United

Sunday night sees Group D begin play with SKC and Minnesota kicking off at 8:00 pm EST. When you consider all four teams in the group were undefeated in their opening two matches, the case can be made that this is the Group of Death.

Further to that point, SKC vs Minnesota pits the league’s two most exciting teams together from the opening two weeks of the season.

After two rounds Sporting sits tops in the West with a 3-1 win over Vancouver and 4-0 win over Houston. Their +6 goal-differential was tops overall. But not to be outdone, the Loons were 3-1 winners over Portland and 5-2 winners over San Jose, good for a +5 goal-differential.

I've somehow carved out the predictions beat at Major League Soccer soccer dot com. It's a blessing and a curse. Mostly a curse.

I'm most confident in Alan Pulido for Golden Boot/Ezequiel Barco for Young Player, which is to say I'm not confident at all 🤷‍♂️ https://t.co/kf6s8018iI

— Andrew Wiebe (@andrew_wiebe) July 8, 2020

Last year the teams met on three occasions. Each team won at home (SKC 1-0) and (Minnesota 2-1) in the regular season, and Minnesota winning a second in the US Open Cup.

Each team made big offseason acquisitions upfront with SKC bringing in Alan Pulido and Minnesota Luis Amarilla. Both players paid early dividends with two goals and one assist.

The Loons will have a glaring hole in their roster at MLS is Back though in MLS Defender of the Year Ike Opara. Opara is currently rehabbing an injury and at best could potentially join the team in the knockout round. In 2018, Minnesota allowed 71 goals. When Opara joined the team in 2019 that number was cut drastically to just 43. A past member of SKC for six seasons, he would’ve also been a key part to Minnesota’s chances against SKC.

#MUFC Defender of the year in Ike Opara will not participate in the #MLSisBack tournament due to injury. pic.twitter.com/UibhcNBNO9

— MLS Transfers and News (@transfers_mls) July 2, 2020

Sporting KC may have only allowed one goal earlier this year, but this is still a team that conceded 67 times last year. Minnesota should be able to score, but without Opara, you can’t count on them to keep a clean sheet.

Scoring has been low so far at MLS is Back but I’ll predict some goals in this one.

Pick: Both teams to score & Over 2.5 (-138)

Real Salt Lake vs Colorado Rapids

The rest of Group D kicks off late Sunday night at 10:30 pm EST.

Real Salt Lake were third in the West last season while Colorado fell just short of the playoffs in the final weeks, finishing in ninth.

RSL reached the conference semis of the playoffs before bowing out to eventual champions Seattle 2-0. They began the 2020 season with back-to-back draws, 0-0 vs Orlando and 1-1 vs the New York Red Bulls.

A quick reminder on where we left off back in March#RSL | @AFCU pic.twitter.com/iarDUd9Gki

— Real Salt Lake (@realsaltlake) July 10, 2020

The Rapids may have missed the playoffs last season but they were one of the league’s better teams down the stretch and showed a renewed enthusiasm with the appointment of Robin Fraser as head coach. They finished the year on a 7-1-4 (WDL) run and won five of their final seven matches. Rapids games were always exciting with eight of those 12 matches going OVER 2.5 goal totals. But even that is only a small sample size of their season’s results.

Both teams scored in 24 of 34 Rapids’ matches, while OVER 2.5 totals were 23-11. Overall, Colorado games were tied for the most average goals per game at 3.6 (tying LAFC, Philadelphia and Portland).

The early stages of 2020 saw much of the same with Colorado winning 2-1 over both DC and Orlando.

“Any time we’re playing RSL it means something. Whether it’s in preseason, in the playoffs, or inside of a bubble in Orlando, it’s always an important game.” – @drewmoor

The first podcast with @rachel_vigil_ & Drew is up!
 https://t.co/zN92nI8MDY pic.twitter.com/5YVvWwBKYL

— Colorado Rapids (@ColoradoRapids) July 10, 2020

RSL fell on the opposite side of the scoring charts last year with only 2.6 goals scored per game in their matches, ranking 22nd, and as mentioned above, that trend continued for them in 2020.

Last year RSL won both matches 3-2 and 2-0, while they went undefeated against the Rapids in 2018 as well: 3-0, 2-2 and 6-0.

While those scorelines may point towards a high-scoring match on Sunday, let’s also remember many of these teams have looked fairly sluggish to start this tournament. These are also two Western Conference teams being forced to play in a 10:30 pm EST time slot. I see these teams canceling each other out Sunday night.

Pick: Draw (+255)