Upcoming Match-ups

MLS Odds: Summer Transfer Prospects

Don Aguero

by Don Aguero in Soccer News

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

Sporting KC v San Jose Earthquakes
Photo credit: Ryan Knapp [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]

You could field one of the best starting 11s in history from the list of MLS players, past and present. David Beckham, Thierry Henry, David Villa, Kaka, Andrea Pirlo, Didier Drogba: there’s no shortage of superstars who have called the league home. What I’m neglecting to mention is that none of these players ever came to the MLS in their prime. They only made the trip across the Atlantic when their talent started to wane and interest from bigger European clubs went with it.

American soccer has grown in leaps and bounds, though, and the MLS is getting stronger every year. It’s only a matter of time before a bone fide star makes the switch while he’s at the height of his powers.

 

 

Until then, MLS teams will need to make a crucial decision. Do they continue to focus their resources on retirement-age superstars, or instead invest in promising youngsters?

Big names garner a lot more excitement, and bringing them to the MLS is a great short-term strategy to grow interest. But in the long run, it’s better for the quality of play to invest in rising stars and lesser-known players in their prime. And, ultimately, the way to attract the very best talent is to be one of the very best leagues.

The MLS’s Targeted Allocation Money (TAM) fund is a step in the right direction. Unlike the Designated Player rule, TAM allows clubs to invest in players that will have a big impact on the league but aren’t necessarily household names.

As we approach the summer transfer window, let’s take a look at some young (or at least young-ish) players that could potentially make the switch.


MLS Transfer Odds

KAI HAVERTZ

The 17-year-old midfielder’s contract at Bayer Leverkusen ends this summer and his future at the moment remains unclear. The German up-and-comer is already being compared to fellow countryman Mesut Ozil for his intelligent and creative playmaking skills.

If the MLS is able to snap up a player like Havertz, it would be a turning point for the league. It’s unlikely that Havertz would take such a risk, but if the paycheck is big enough, you never know.

He could be taken under the wing of Andrea Pirlo at New York City FC. At 37 years old, the Juve star has a lot to teach. Or he could partner up with Nicolas Lodeiro at Seattle FC and form the most solid central midfield in the MLS.

Odds to sign to the MLS: 17/3

If he signs, odds he will end up at:

  • NYFC: 3/2
  • Seattle FC: 4/1
  • LA Galaxy: 6/1
  • Toronto FC: 8/1

CHRISTIAN PULISIC

Christian Pulisic is by far the most promising player on the US Men’s National Team. At just 18 years old, he’s already established himself as a key player in the starting line-up. While most of the USMNT play in for MLS or lower-tier English teams, Pulisic plays for Borussia Dortmund, a continental power.

Would he give that up to play in the MLS?

We’ve seen American players return home before. Most notably, Michael Bradley left Roma for Toronto FC and Clint Dempsey ditched Tottenham for Seattle. But both players were well into their late 20s when they left Europe. Pulisic is just 18.

He may feel at home with Jozy Altidore at Toronto FC, or alongside C.J. Sapong with his home-state Philadelphia Union.

Odds to sign to the MLS: 89/11

If he signs, odds he will end up at:

  • Toronto FC: 13/7
  • Philadelphia Union: 7/3
  • Sporting Kansas City: 9/1
  • Orlando City: 12/1

SANTI CAZORLA

Photo: Ronnie Macdonald [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0]
At 32 years old, Santi Cazorla is no spring chicken. He may be a little past his prime but he’s still one of the top midfielders in the English Premier league. He missed a good part of the 2016-17 season due to injury, and Arsenal suffered because of it.

His contract expires this summer, and while Arsene Wenger has assured fans that Cazorla will be re-signed, we can’t be sure of anything right now.

Cazorla would be a great addition to clubs like Orlando City and Sporting KC, who are doing well so far this season but have had trouble scoring goals. A player like Cazorla would be the solution to their problems.

Odds to sign to the MLS: 10/1

If he signs, odds he will end up at:

  • Sporting Kansas City: 3/1
  • Orlando City: 3/1
  • Vancouver Whitecaps: 6/1
  • LA Galaxy: 8/1

PAUL POGBA

Photo: Xavier NALTCHAYAN (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/]
Paul Pogba left a title-winning Juventus team to join the ailing Manchester United for a cool £90 million. The MLS is a wealthy league, but they’ve never forked out that much money for a player. In fact, no other club in the world has: at £90M, Pogba is the most expensive player in the world.

If he was willing to leave Juventus, who are currently seeking the Italian treble, to join Man. United, who will be lucky to qualify for the Champions League, then he’ll probably join the MLS if the money is right.

It’s possible some of the big spenders in the MLS will make an offer. I’m looking at you, New York City FC and LA Galaxy. Also, Toronto FC and Orlando are known to drop big bucks for their stars.

Or maybe he’ll make the move to Montreal where he can converse in French to his heart’s content. I really like the potential of a Pogba-to-Drogba connection.

Of course, the sheer amount of money it would take to woo the Frenchman make the odds extremely long.

Odds to sign to the MLS: 30/1

If he signs, odds he will end up at:

  • LA Galaxy: 1/1
  • NYFC: 2/1
  • Orlando City: 8/1
  • Montreal Impact: 15/1

GARETH BALE

Photo: Ruben Ortega [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0]
There are a few world-class strikers up for grabs in this year’s summer transfer window and, as usual, Real Madrid will have first pick. With Romelu Lukaku and Álvaro Morata becoming a real possibility, where does that leave Gareth Bale?

The Welshman is linked to a Manchester United move, but if that falls through, there’s always the MLS. His pace and power would wreak havoc stateside.

He could join the stellar attack of Toronto FC or Chicago Fire, or perhaps add some much-needed firepower to the San Jose Earthquakes or New York Red Bulls.

Odds to sign to the MLS: 50/1

If he signs, odds he will end up at:

  • Toronto FC: 4/1
  • NY Red Bulls: 4/1
  • San Jose Earthquakes: 6/1
  • Chicago Fire: 7/1
Author Image