MLS Round 16 Odds & Picks October 6-7

• MLS Round 16 features 13 games this week over Tuesday and Wednesday
• Will NYCFC stay hot? Will teams like DC and Cincinnati be able to find a win?
• Read on for the odds and our best bets from Round 16 here

After just one matchday last week, MLS returns will a full midweek slate of games spread over Tuesday and Wednesday this week. Nashville kicks things off on Tuesday night hosting Minnesota at 8:30 pm with the bulk of the schedule set to follow on Wednesday with 12 more games.

Be sure to check on the international call-ups departing from each team this week before placing your bets as several players are traveling with their national teams on international duty.

See the odds for every game this weekend as well as our top betting predictions below.

MLS Round 16 Odds

All odds taken Oct 5 at Bet365 

Pick 1: NYCFC vs DC United

The odds have already been adjusting in New York’s favor for this one when they host DC United at 8:00 pm EST on Wednesday. While scanning the opening lines for Week 16, New York was in the -160 range to win the match and now sit at -200.

I think that move is more than justified as NYC look to have hit their stride with just a single defeat in their past nine matches. The run has seen New York rise to fifth in the East and just five points outside of the top four places. They’re coming off back-to-back wins which have seen them shut-out Cincinnati 4-0 and edge out Inter Miami by a 3-2 scoreline on Saturday.

The weekend match saw a wild first half where all five goals were scored with Alexandru Mitrita scoring a brace and Alexander ring recording three assists. New York will be without Mitrita though on Wednesday as he has been recalled to Romania for international duty.

"Not every game we can outplay the opponent and have full control, sometimes you have to dig out the results, and how we did that tonight was amazing."

📰 5 Points 👇 @etihad https://t.co/0HkZK1XvLQ

— New York City FC (@NYCFC) October 4, 2020

Their opponents, DC United, could not be in more opposite form. Ben Olsen’s United have just a single win since the regular season resumed—that’s a record of 1-3-6 (WDL) since the MLS is Back Tournament.

I feel like I can keep repeating the same DC stats each week. They’re a mess and have no offense. After the weekend’s 4-0 loss to Atlanta, they’ve now been shutout in three-straight matches and also in five of six. Their only goals in that stretch were against Toronto FC in a 2-2 draw where their goals came off TFC mistakes.

DC are second-last in the league in goals scored (11) and dead-last in expected goals (xG) at 9.1. The next worst team in xG is Atlanta and Cincinnati, who are over three goals better at 12.6. On the season, DC have scored just 11 goals, whereas NYC have conceded just 12.

Saturday’s defeat included another low-light for DC when they subbed on Russell Canouse who wasn’t listed on their roster and who was forced to leave the field two minutes later as an illegal substitution.

“We’re fragile, we’re a fragile group emotionally right now and we are, from a soccer standpoint, not very good either,” admitted Olsen after the game.

The Cityzens return to Yankee Stadium for the first time in over a year, a location where they have lost just four times in 57 matches. When these teams played on September 6, DC sat back and held on for a 0-0 draw. However, NYCFC had 70-percent possession and led in attempts 19-0 and shots on target 5-0. I can’t see DC holding New York at bay for a second time and barring a disaster, NYCFC should make light work of this DC side.

Pick: NYCFC  – Win to Nil (+175)

Pick 2: Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati

We have, on paper, what looks like another mismatch as the fourth-place Philadelphia Union face 12th-place FC Cincinnati at 7:30 pm EST Wednesday night.

We just saw this matchup two weeks ago on Wednesday, September 23 in Cincinnati where the teams drew 0-0. And that’s about all there is to say about the match. Cincy had a few missed chances, but not only were there no goals scored, but there was just a single shot on target by either team. That came from Cincinnati and not until the 92′ minute.

Keeping games tight as Nippert Stadium has been the calling card for this FCC squad. All four of their home matches since the MLS is Back Tournament have ended 0-0.

Let us know what you think? 🤔

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 6, 2020

When they hit the road is when things get really bad though. Not counting MLS is Back matches, away from home they are 1-0-7 having scored five and conceded 19. FCC are playing through a heavy dose of road matches right now with five of their past six coming on the road. In those five road matches, they’ve allowed three, two, zero, four and two goals. Their past two results were a 4-0 loss to NYCFC and 2-0 loss to Minnesota United on Saturday.

The only team with a worse goal-scoring record than DC is this Cincinnati team who have scored just eight goals on the year and only two in their past ten matches. Somehow, that’s going to need to change if they hope to avoid defeat against Philly on the road.

Traveling to Subaru Park hasn’t ended well for many teams this season where Philly is undefeated. In the four matches played at home since the summer tournament the Union have emerged victorious 1-0, 4-1, 2-1 and 3-0.

@PhilaUnion's taking a look at Sergio Santos' key touches from Saturday's match 👀 #DOOP | @torkusa pic.twitter.com/3pdC5fuwTu

— PhilaUnion🛡 (@PhilaUnion) October 5, 2020

Philadelphia had been riding a five-match undefeated streak heading into their match with Toronto on Saturday. There, they were defeated 2-1, in a game played at a neutral venue. It was just their second loss in ten as they’ve gone 6-2-2.

Philly will likely have to make do without Brenden Aaronson who’s cleared his physical and looks set to depart to Austria to join RB Salzburg. That could impact the Union’s offense as he’s a regular in the midfield and has contributed seven points on the year.

The Union should win this one but are fairly heavy favorites at -175. Instead, betting the Union on the spread or Asian Handicap at -1 provides a little better return on your wager. They’ll need to win by more than one goal, but a single-goal win would at least return your bet as a push.

Pick: Philadelphia Union -1 (+102)

Pick 3: Parlay

Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas

It’s the third meeting between these Texas rivals at 8:00 pm EST Wednesday night. When the regular season resumed from the tournament, Houston’s first match back saw them draw at home 0-0 with Dallas. When Dallas hosted the second match on September 12, FCD came out on top 2-1.

That win over their rivals sparked FCD to a run which has seen them fall to defeat just once, a surprising 1-0 loss to Atlanta. Against the usually stingy Columbus Crew, Dallas drew 2-2 on Saturday and are now off back-to-back draws, but have failed to score in two of three. Still, those are the only two matches where the Dallas attack has failed to register in nine matches, while also conceding in all but one.

Speed 💨
Strength 💪
Skills 🔥

Mateo brings it all to the H pic.twitter.com/odMDy3n4dv

— Houston Dynamo FC (@HoustonDynamo) October 5, 2020

Tab Ramos’ Dynamo are languishing with no wins in their past six but they are rarely shutout. In 15 matches this year they’ve scored in 13, though have also conceded in the same amount.

It’s been seven matches since Houston kept a clean sheet and this rivalry is usually one that features goals. Last year, each won at home, Houston 2-1 and Dallas 5-1. Nine of the last ten have all seen both teams scoring as well. That single 0-0 draw in Houston, was also the only time in 11 home matches that Houston has failed to score against Dallas in MLS play, the last coming  May 5, 2010.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-200)

Sporting Kansas City vs Chicago Fire

In this new-look 2020 schedule, it’s a rare West vs East matchup between Sporting KC and Chicago at 8:30 pm EST Wednesday. This is another match where I see the potential for goals as both teams are 10-5 to OVER 2.5 totals.

SKC looks impressive sitting third overall in the West, but prior to Saturday’s 2-1 win over Houston they had won just one in seven. They’re still living off a strong start to the year and showing at MLS is Back. That one win came on September 13, 1-0 over Minnesota, and is the only clean sheet they’ve kept in nine matches post-tournament.

They have still managed to score in each of those nine matches, just not enough. The return of DP striker Alan Pulido on the weekend gave their offense a boost as Pulido scored both SKC goals in the win. Unfortunately, Pulido looks set to be departing to play with Mexico this week for international duty.

We see you, @alanpulido! @MLS Player of the Week 👏🏼https://t.co/PxVab7XjUg pic.twitter.com/AfYv1wJZw6

— Sporting Kansas City (@SportingKC) October 5, 2020

Chicago has now picked up points in three-straight after Saturday’s 2-2 draw with the Impact and has also recorded points in four of five. They’ve scored a goal in six-straight and multiple goals in four of five.

Neither of these teams is shy about shooting on net as each have attempted 207 shots, tied for fifth overall. Chicago, despite being outside of the playoffs, have the second-highest xG in the East at 20.2 and have scored 20 goals. SKC meanwhile, have the fifth-highest xG in the West at 17.4, while having far exceeded that total by scoring 26.

SKC were 1-0 winners at home last season in this fixture and are 5-1-1 vs the Fire of late in MLS. Regardless of the outcome, I see both teams finding the scoresheet on Wednesday and see value in tying together both of these games with the same outcome.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-163)

Parlay Both Games (+142)