MLS Week 17 Odds & Picks – October 10-11

• MLS Round 17 includes four matches on Saturday followed by nine more on Sunday
• Can Toronto extend their lead in the Supporters’ Shield race when they meet struggling FC Cincinnati?
• Read on for the odds and our best bets from Round 17 here

MLS Round 17 kicks off with a full fixture list of 13 matches this weekend. Inter Miami, fresh off Gonzalo Higuain’s first MLS goal and a 2-1 win in midweek play will kick things off at home to Houston at 5:00 pm EST on Saturday.

Other midweek action saw both Toronto and Seattle win once again as both lead their respective conferences. The Timbers have now won four-straight after a wild 6-3 win over the LA Galaxy to remain three points back of Seattle, while the Galaxy are now winless in six.

Montreal upset title contenders Columbus 2-1, while it was another game, another loss, for both DC United and FC Cincinnati. Wednesday’s 4-1 defeat to NYCFC was the last straw for DC management which said goodbye to head coach to Ben Olsen on Thursday. Assistant Chad Ashton will step in on an interim basis. Atlanta has struggled this season, but now has points in two-straight and will likely welcome new DP Marcelino Moreno to the squad this weekend.

Once again, check-in on which players are away for international duty as several teams may be fielding rotating lineups during the international break.

See the odds for every game this weekend as well as our top betting predictions below.

MLS Week 17 Odds

All odds taken Oct 8 at William Hill

Pick 1: FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC

One of these teams is among the league’s worst, while the other is a legitimate contender to win the East and possibly MLS Cup. Of course, it’s Toronto, who falls into the latter category, as they host Cincinnati at 7:30 pm EST Sunday night.

Toronto has sole possession of first place in the Eastern Conference at 34 points, three ahead of both Philadelphia and Columbus with their 1-0 win over New England on Wednesday. They also lead the Supporters’ Shield race with Seattle leading the West with 30 points. It was a more defensive effort for TFC overall, but Ayo Akinola’s first half goal proved to be enough for the win. TFC also benefitted from Adam Buksa’s missed PK in the second half. Akinola has stepped up for TFC with Jozy Altidore in and out of the lineup and sits tied with LAFC’s Bradley Wright-Phillips for the league-lead in goals-per-90 at 0.94.

TFC has failed to take points from a game just twice in 11 contests since the MLS is Back Tournament. They are 8-1-2 (WDL) in that time and have now won four-straight. At 2.13 points per game, they lead the league in that category while Cincinnati are second-worst at only 0.81 PPG, while sitting 13th in the East.

🗣️ Ayo Akinola is a stud! 💪@MattDoyle76 breaks down the @TorontoFC striker's game on Top Tier. pic.twitter.com/HLMLDoRl9S

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 8, 2020

It was more of the same for Cincinnati on Wednesday. Despite coming out strong and creating some chances against Philadelphia, they failed to score and entered the half tied 0-0. An Ilsinho substitution for the Union in the second half gave the Union the spark they needed to pull away and eventually win 3-0.

For Cincy, they’ve now lost three-straight, being shutout in each game and are 1-4-6 of late. The team simply can’t score and have scored just twice in that timeframe and once in their past five. Cincy is the only team that has failed to score in the opening 30 minutes of a match. While Toronto, if they can score early this weekend, may have the win wrapped up early. They’ve yet to lose a match when leading at the half and in seven matches when leading, Toronto is 5-2-0. When Cincy has been trailing at the half they are 0-0-7. If you think Toronto can score early, a half-time/full-time bet on TFC at +180 odds has good value.

These midweek GOLAZOS were on another level! 🔥

🗳️ Vote now for #ATTGotW –> https://t.co/0Vcxgrt7fr pic.twitter.com/cf0Ktr4Xtu

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 8, 2020

One positive for Cincy may be the fact that all four home matches since the tournament have seen them draw 0-0. Not a strong statement about their offense, but proof that they can, on their day, shut down teams on their own pitch.

These teams have only met twice with Toronto winning both encounters last season by 2-1 (home) and 5-1 (away) scorelines.

I only see this match ending one way and that’s with a TFC win.

Pick: Toronto win (-114)

Pick 2: LAFC vs Seattle Sounders

This looks like the match of the weekend between Western Conference contenders LAFC (5th) and Seattle (1st) at 7:00 pm EST.

Both teams are missing some key players due to international call-ups with Raul Ruidiaz (Peru), Gustav Svensson (Sweden) and Xavier Arreaga (Ecuador) away for Seattle and Diego Rossi and Brian Rodriguez (Uruguay), plus Jose Cifuentes and Diego Palacios (Ecuador) away for LAFC.

Seattle was at home in midweek action which saw them defeat Real Salt Lake 2-1. It wasn’t their best performance, yet they still held a two-goal advantage until a late own goal allowed RSL back into the match. It was Seattle’s third-straight win and fifth in six matches. Much like Toronto in the East, Seattle have only failed to record points twice in ten matches since the tournament.

The wild wild West. 👀 pic.twitter.com/CKjRoOcTgJ

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 8, 2020

LAFC was off midweek as their match against Colorado was postponed due to a Rapids’ staff member testing positive for the coronavirus. Los Angeles did play last weekend and were 3-1 victors over Real Salt Lake. That came after a surprising 2-1 defeat to San Jose in the match prior.

LAFC have alternated losses and wins since a 3-0 loss to RSL on September 9. They’ve won three and lost three in their past six but are just 4-0-6 (WDL) since the tournament.

The teams are meeting for the fourth time already this season. LAFC took the first match in Orlando during the MLS is Back Tournament 4-1, before Seattle got their revenge at home 3-1 on August 30. It was another Seattle win at CenturyLink Field on September 18, this time 3-0 in their last matchup.

For great value, a straight Sounders win will offer a great return. LAFC have been very inconsistent and oddly have struggled to score in many games of late. That was with Rossi and Rodriguez in the lineup. Without them, and as long as Seattle fields a regular starting XI, Seattle should have a good chance to pull the upset on Sunday.

Wagers on Seattle ‘double chance’ (-120) or Seattle to score OVER 1.5 goals (+105) could also be worth a wager and be a little safer but the big value comes on the outright win.

Pick: Seattle Sounders – Win (+230)

Pick 3: Sporting Kansas City vs Nashville SC

At 7:30 pm EST on Sunday, third-place Sporting KC in the West, hosts tenth-place Nashville in the East.

Nashville was a part of the lone Tuesday match in midweek action, drawing Minnesota at home 0-0. It was their third draw in a row and second scoreless 0-0 result. Nashville is now undefeated in four matches at 1-3-0, having scored twice and conceded once in that stretch.

Sporting Kansas City played out an entertaining 1-0 win on Wednesday at home to Chicago. The Fire had a chance to go ahead early but in-form striker Robert Beric missed his PK which was awarded just 30 seconds into the match. Winston Reid, on loan from West Ham United, would head home the winning and the only goal of the match in the 67′ minute. The win was more impressive for SKC, given they were without DP striker Alan Pulido who is away with Mexico for international duty. Pulido had just returned from injury and had scored both goals in SKC’s 2-1 win over Houston last weekend.

Winston Reid scores his first goal with #SportingKC and breaks the scoreless tie!

TV: FSKC
Stream: FSGO – https://t.co/tSYcSIQwsr pic.twitter.com/J5FDlOABMn

— FOX Sports Kansas City (@FSKansasCity) October 8, 2020

On one hand, SKC is a team that tilts to an OVER betting team. They are 10-5 to OVER 2.5 totals and three of their past four matches have seen at least three goals scored. For Nashville, their games see the lowest average number of goals scored of any team at only 1.7 GPG. This has seen them go 3-12 to the UNDER with 2.5 totals, two more than the next closest team in New England.

Nashville doesn’t score much with only 11 goals scored all season, only better than DC’s eight. Away from home that gets even worse with only two goals scored in eight matches. They have kept things tight defensively in only allowing one GPG on their travels with eight conceded.

With a little extra rest and SKC having to make do without Pulido, I think Nashville will again keep this match close and another UNDER will cash.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals (+105 at Bet365)