MLS Week 13 Odds & Picks Sept 23: Atlanta vs Dallas, Chicago vs Houston & Portland vs Seattle

• MLS Week 13 sees a full slate of matches on Wednesday, September 23, 2020
• After each team has won once this season, the Timbers and Sounders meet for the third time, with a road team winning each of the last five in the rivalry
• Read on for the odds and best bets from the midweek slate of games below

It’s a full midweek slate of matches in Major League Soccer as all 26 teams will play on Wednesday night in 13 games.

Home teams struggled on the weekend with just three wins in 13 games and San Jose were routed once again. The Earthquakes are winless since the season resumed and have been outscored 23-7. Ouch.

The highlight of the night looks to be a nightcap between two top-five Western teams when Cascadia rivals Portland and Seattle meet for the third time this season.

Let’s take a look at the odds for each game on Wednesday, along with our top picks from the slate below.

MLS Week 13 Odds

All odds taken Sept 21 at Bet365

Pick 1: Atlanta United vs FC Dallas

This one jumped off the page to me as soon as I saw the opening lines. Maybe that’s a bad thing when a game looks too obvious, or maybe the oddsmakers are giving us another gift with great value on FC Dallas once again. Last weekend, FCD rewarded their backers as huge 4-1 underdogs in a 3-2 win over Sporting Kansas City. The game looked mispriced but I still thought a road team, coming off midweek play against a capable SKC team, could fail to cash on the outright. I bet an FCD goal prop but avoided the straight-up win.

I don’t want to make that same mistake this week when Dallas travels to Atlanta at 7:00 pm EST Saturday night. Dallas is rolling right now and find themselves third in the West with 19 points and just two points out of first. After dropping a 1-0 result to Nashville in their first game since March when the season resumed, they’ve now gone 4-3-1 (WDL) in their last eight. That includes their current three-game winning streak with wins over Houston (2-1), Colorado (4-1) and SKC (3-2).

2nd goal today for Franco Jara #DTID pic.twitter.com/Uk1urdPdTu

— Will Forbes (@TransfersMLS) September 19, 2020

Despite losing striker Zdenek Ondrasek who decided to return to the Czech Republic for family reasons, others have stepped up. Franco Jara has five goals on the year and four in his last four games, Santiago Mosquera has four on the year and had a hat-trick against the Rapids and Andres Ricaurte has looked good in his early time with the team with a goal and assist in his first three matches. He was rested Saturday so should figure into the starting XI on Wednesday.

When I bet this match on the weekend Dallas were +225 underdogs and that number has since shortened over the past couple of days to +210. Even at +210 that gives FCD an implied probability of winning the match at only 32.26-percent. Right now I would give almost anyone higher than a 32-percent chance of beating Atlanta United.

Stephen Glass says Ezequiel Barco did train today, but is still day-to-day and it is uncertain if he can play Wednesday.

— Mike Conti (@MikeConti929) September 21, 2020

Since the regular season resumed, Atlanta has played seven matches and have just one win, a 2-0 win over Nashville in their first game back. They’re 0-2-4 (WDL) since and all of those matches have come against either Nashville, Miami or Orlando, because of the weird COVID-19-related scheduling quirks to the season. They’re fresh off a third-straight loss on the weekend, 2-1 to Inter Miami. The losing streak includes two losses against Miami and another to Nashville where they allowed four goals to a Nashville team who had previously never scored more than once in a game. One of their lone remaining attacking threats, Ezequiel Barco sat out Saturday’s match with an injury and his fitness should be monitored.

However, either way, I just can’t can’t find any good reason to think this Five Stripes team who can’t beat the league’s expansion teams, will suddenly step up and defeat Dallas.

Dallas on the moneyline looks like a great upset bet, or if you want to be safer the ‘draw no bet’ or ‘double chance’ markets pay +120 or -175 odds respectively.

Pick: FC Dallas win (+210)

Pick 2: Chicago Fire vs Houston Dynamo

Another 7:30 pm EST match sees the East’s last-place team Chicago, hosting the West’s tenth-place Houston Dynamo.

Results-wise and clearly based on their position in the standings, Chicago have been brutal. The Fire have two wins on the year, just one since the season resumed after the tournament (1-2-4 record in that time) and have the league’s second-worst goal-differential at -10. They have though, been feisty of late and could’ve had some better results. Chicago had a strong game against New England but lost 2-1, were leading Columbus 2-0 before fading and drawing 2-2 and their 4-1 defeat to Orlando on the weekend looks much worse than it was.

Chicago hit the crossbar, the post, missed a PK and had a goal called back by VAR all in the first half. They had a second goal called back by VAR in the second half as well. This match was a wild one and the Fire deserved more than the single goal they scored. The Fire have created the fifth-most attempts at goal at 173 and have the East’s second-highest xG at 14.0, only behind Toronto. No Eastern Conference team though has allowed more goals than Chicago’s 22 though, which exceeds their East-worst (24th overall) xGA of 17.2.

Expecting the Dynamo to win or keep a clean sheet on the road would be completely foolish. Last year they were 2-0-15 on their travels. They haven’t won more than two road games since 2014 (three) and since are 9-23-53 on the road. It was 28 road matches ago since the Dynamo kept a clean sheet on the road, a 0-0 draw with Orlando on September 22, 2018. Since that game 18/27 of their next road matches have seen both teams scoring and the total exceeding 2.5 goals.

Houston’s road woes have continued in 2020 with just one win in four road matches. If you count their “away” matches at the MLS is Back Tournament where they drew twice and lost once, they are now 1-3-3 in games not played at BBVA Stadium.

🐾 36 goals & 30 assists for @HoustonDynamo 🐾@alberthelis17 is headed to Portuguese club Boavista.

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) September 21, 2020

Albert Elis is/was arguably Houston’s most important player and had four goals/three assists before his transfer to Portuguese side Boavista was announced this week. Elis was held out on the lineup the past three games for Houston, likely with the knowledge that his transfer was imminent. Houston was winless in those three matches: 1-1 (COL), 2-1 loss (DAL) and 2-2 (MIN) on Saturday.

They have though, been obviously scoring in those matches and should be able to find the back of the net against the Fire. The onus will fall on the likes of Darwin Quintero who leads the team with 5G/6A and Memo Rodriguez 3G/3A.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-125)

Week 13 comin’ up! 👀 pic.twitter.com/Jle98rhL4m

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) September 21, 2020

Pick 3: Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders

At 10:00 pm EST it’s the season’s third installment of the Cascadia rivalry between Portland and Seattle. Seattle claimed a 3-0 victory in the first match back on August 23 in Portland, while Portland were 2-1 winners earlier this month on September 6 in Seattle. Clearly home field hasn’t mattered much for these two this year. In fact, oddly the road team has now won each of the past five in this rivalry with four of the results ending 2-1. Throw in Seattle’s 3-0 win this season and all five have seen three goals scored.

This rivalry is always filled with goals and 7/9 have now seen the both teams to score and OVER 2.5 combined goals bet cashing. Considering each team is coming off impressive blowout wins, we could be in for a wild one Wednesday night. The Timbers were 6-1 winners over San Jose on Saturday, while the Sounders were 3-0 winners over LAFC Friday and also routed those same Earthquakes 7-1 the week before.

Now THAT'S more like it. #RCTID #SJvPOR pic.twitter.com/DxmIViukho

— Portland Timbers (@TimbersFC) September 20, 2020

There’s an interesting travel note here in that Seattle’s last three matches have all been at home and they also played the lone Friday night game last weekend. Whereas the rest of the league played either Saturday or Sunday.

Portland meanwhile are coming off a four-game road trip which included back-to-back trips to San Jose on Wednesday and Saturday. Despite the short turnaround between games in San Jose, Portland was still forced to return home after Wednesday’s match and then come back to San Jose on Saturday. This due to the COVID-19 travel regulations for road teams this season. It’s not a long trip for the Timbers, but Seattle should still be the more well-rested team.

Is this real life?!! pic.twitter.com/7vVMh1gnYb

— Seattle Sounders FC (@SoundersFC) September 17, 2020

Should both teams score in this one? Very likely. That pays out at only -188 odds though. Should both score and the game see at least three goals? Again, it’s probably hard to not see that outcome. That’s offered at -120. But I also like an even-money bet on the Sounders to score OVER 1.5 goals.

Pick: Seattle Over 1.5 Goals (+100), Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-120)