MLS Week 18 Odds & Picks: DC vs Philadelphia, Toronto vs New York & Houston vs Nashville

• MLS Week 18 features 12 matches on Wednesday, October 14, 2020
• Toronto FC have won five-straight, lead the Supporters’ Shield race, and are the first team to clinch a playoff spot
• Read on for the odds and our best bets from MLS Week 18 here

This past weekend saw teams like Toronto keep winning, while also clinching a playoff spot, teams like DC and Cincinnati keep losing, and a shorthanded LAFC record an impressive 3-1 victory over Seattle.

This week offers an almost full midweek slate of 12 matches on Wednesday. If you’re a Rapids fan, you’ll have to wait a little longer to see Colorado take the pitch as they haven’t played since September 23. Originally scheduled to play Seattle on Wednesday, due to positive COVID tests, this match, as well as their October 18th match against RSL and October 21st match with SKC, have now been postponed.

See the odds for every game on Wednesday as well as our top betting predictions below.

MLS Week 18 Odds

All odds taken Oct 13 at Bet365

Pick 1: DC United vs Philadelphia Union

Week 18 kicks off at 7:30 pm EST with four matches and this is one of them between the last-place DC United and second-place Philadelphia Union in the Eastern Conference.

Philly find themselves just three points back of Toronto, having kept pace with TFC on the weekend with a 2-1 win over the Montreal Impact. The Union have won two straight and have suffered just a single defeat in their past eight matches. They’ve lost just twice since the MLS is Back Tournament and that came to fellow East contenders Toronto and Columbus. The Union get contributions all across their lineup and have outscored their opponents 18-5 in their past eight.

That’s bad news for a DC United team devoid of goals and very likely belief that they can actually win a game at this point. A five-game losing streak, 1-3-8 (WDL) record since the MLS is Back Tournament and being outscored 23-7 in that stretch will do that to you.

Report: Former #USWNT head coach Jill Ellis is among the candidates to fill the open coaching vacancy at @dcunited: https://t.co/ECK4QY0qsy pic.twitter.com/a0f4moPDlS

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 13, 2020

Longtime player-turned-coach Ben Olsen was let go after DC lost 4-1 to NYCFC last week, and interim Chad Ashton didn’t fare much better in a 2-1 loss to Chicago on Sunday. To make matters worse, DC’s goal came after falling behind 2-0 and only from an own goal. Their goal against NYCFC came from a penalty and they’re a league-worst in expected goals at 11.5, scoring 13. By contrast, Philly has six players who have scored three or more goals, totaling 25 goals on their own.

At this price, I can only look to a Union win.

Pick: Philadelphia Union win (-118)

All eyes on the race for the Supporters' Shield. 👀 pic.twitter.com/nw9gUVJycs

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 12, 2020

Pick 2: Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls

Another 7:30 pm EST matchup between the East’s first-place Toronto FC and seventh-place New York Red Bulls.

Last year each team won at home, Toronto 3-1 and New York 2-0. This year, neither team is at home, with TFC being the “home” team, but playing in Hartford. But home, away or neutral grounds haven’t mattered for Toronto this season. In a weird COVID schedule that has seen them with several scheduling oddities and a team without a true home game since September 1st, they’ve still soared to the top. Since the summer tournament, they are 9-1-2 (WDL) and have now won five-straight after a 1-0 win over Cincinnati on Sunday clinched them a playoff spot. They’ve conceded just twice during those five games while scoring eight.

.@TorontoFC has punched their postseason ticket. 👏 pic.twitter.com/44lMxUQeD7

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) October 12, 2020

On Sunday, Greg Vanney rotated his side with the likes of Nick DeLeon, Pablo Piatti and Ayo Akinola all starting on the bench. Jozy Altidore was also out injured, though Auro did return at fullback to play a full 90 minutes after subbing on for just 34 minutes the match before after recently being injured himself.

At seventh in the East, the Red Bulls are probably about where they deserve to be—somewhere in the middle, though they may actually be slightly overperforming despite a 7-2-8 (WDL) record. Their xG is only 18.5 but they’ve scored 21 goals. Since MLS is Back, New York has gone through a stretch of one win and six and are now currently riding a streak of three wins in five. On Saturday, they were 1-0 winners in Atlanta when 17-year-old Caden Clark scored the game’s lone goal in his MLS debut.

THE KID CADEN CLARK!

0-1 #ATLvRBNY | #RBNY pic.twitter.com/CNcGRCmzvR

— New York Red Bulls (@NewYorkRedBulls) October 10, 2020

But let’s look at New York’s wins this season in 2020. Two came against Atlanta and one versus each of Cincinnati, NYCFC, DC, Miami and Montreal. Only one of those teams has a winning record, New York and that win, 1-0, came off a gaffe by New York keeper Sean Johnson. Miami, Cincy and DC are 12th-14th respectively in the East. When they’ve played stronger sides like Orlando (3-1 loss) and Philadelphia (3-0 and 1-0 losses) they haven’t fared as well.

Outside of two losses this summer to Montreal and Vancouver, a tournament knockout round loss to NYCFC and their MLS Cup defeat to Seattle, Toronto hasn’t lost another MLS match since August 3, 2019, coincidentally though, to these Red Bulls. That’s a run of just four defeats, only two in the regular season, in their past 32 MLS matches.

Toronto is a class above New York right now and given their current form, should pick up another win on Wednesday.

Pick: Toronto FC win (-125)

Pick 3: Houston Dynamo vs Nashville SC

The ninth-place (19 points) Houston Dynamo in the West host 11th place (18 points) Nashville SC from the East at 8:00 pm EST on Wednesday.

After returning from the tournament to a 3-1-0 (WDL) record, Houston are now 1-3-4 in their past eight. The Dynamo, despite having some exciting pieces and getting a strong season from Darwin Quintero (6G/8A), are proving they lack the necessary punch to truly compete without Albert Elis. Elis’ last game was Houston’s 2-1 win on September 5th and the Dynamo have just one win since. On Saturday, after a weather delay, they eventually fell 1-0 to Inter Miami with Miami scoring on a second-half penalty.

▪️ Was the #RBNY goal actually offside?
▪️ Should #VWFC's Montero have gotten a red card?
▪️ Was that a penalty kick for #FCCincy?

We've got plenty of controversy in this week's Instant Replay. // @cheezit pic.twitter.com/zZfUf7QUf6

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 13, 2020

Without Elis, Houston has scored multiple goals just twice in their past eight. Whereas for Nashville, they’ve scored more than one goal in a game just once the entire season. Once! If their offense was even marginally better they would easily be in a playoff position, given they’ve conceded only 16 goals in 18 games this season. Heading into last weekend’s match, they had allowed just one goal in four games.

Riding Nashville UNDERs has been a profitable endeavor for much of this season as they are 12-4 to UNDER 2.5 totals. After five-straight matches falling under 2.5 goals, the streak ended this weekend when they lost 2-1 to Sporting Kansas City. Nashville actually took the early lead just 15 minutes in, before drew level in the 53′ minute. The UNDER may well have cashed again, however, Nashville took a red card just two minutes later and SKC would go on to score the eventual winner in the 79′ minute playing with the advantage.

Right now, I don’t trust either of these offenses to combine for three or more goals so I’ll side with the UNDER in this one.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-134)