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MLS Week 24 Odds & Picks: Road Value in San Jose & NYCFC?

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Apr 15, 2020 · 11:33 AM PDT

Chris Wondolowski of the Rapids
Chris Wondolowski leads the San Jose Eathquakes with nine goals this season as the Quakes continue to move up the standings. Photo By @JulesBoykoff (Twitter)
  • MLS Week 24 continues this weekend with 12 more matches
  • Can home underdogs FC Cincinnati and Sporting KC upset New York and San Jose?
  • In a possible high-scoring affair with RSL, will Carlos Vela break the total goals and assists record?

It’s already been a busy MLS Week 24, with two coaches, Mike Petke (personal conduct) of Real Salt Lake and Wilmer Cabrera (performance) of Houston, being shown the door from their respective clubs. Toronto and Montreal advanced to the Canadian Championship with semifinal wins, and Atlanta United claimed a huge scalp for MLS by defeating Mexican giants Club América in the Campeones Cup.

Five midweek MLS matches also took place, prior to every team in the league being in action this weekend.

We take a look at a few games from the MLS Week 24 weekend slate and provide some expert betting advice.

FC Cincinnati vs New York City Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Cincinnati +0.5 (-125) +240 O 3.0 (-120)
NYCFC -0.5 (+105) +100 U 3.0 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +260 N/A

*All odds taken August 16, 2019

Will FCC be Any Match for NYC?

It’s the second-ever meeting between MLS debutants FC Cincinnati and New York City when FCC host the Pigeons at 7:30 pm EST on Saturday.

When the teams met earlier this season on June 7, NYC made quick work of Cincinnati in a 5-2 win. New York took a 3-1 lead to the half and managed to go up 4-1 in the second. Heber had two goals and Maxi Moralez had a goal and three assists.

While FCC had their fair share of chances, it was New York which actually scored all seven goals in the match, having scored two own goals to put Cincinnati on the scoresheet.

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That win, at the time, had put NYC on a streak of ten matches undefeated. While that streak has long ended, they’ve still won three of five, however, only one of their past three.

On the road, New York has struggled of late as well, including last Sunday’s 2-1 defeat in Atlanta. They’ve won just one of their past six games away from Yankee Stadium, going 1-2-3 (W/D/L). That lone win came against bottom-feeder Colorado. Though it’s worth noting that all three losses came to strong opponents all currently in playoff positions — the aforementioned Atlanta, and also Real Salt Lake and New York Red Bulls.

Saturday’s opponent is certainly much closer to the level of the Rapids, sitting at the bottom of the league table with just 18 points and a 5-17-3 record.

Cincinnati took a 2-0 lead over Columbus last week, however, failed to hold on for an eventual 2-2 draw. Their last win came on July 13, with four losses sandwiched between those results.

With a win, NYCFC has a chance to move into third place in the East and at even-money against the league’s worst team, it looks too good to pass up.

Alternatively, FCC has allowed at least two goals in each of their past five games and in eight of nine overall, making New York to score “Over 1.5 goals” at -138 odds also an enticing proposition.

Pick: NYCFC win (+100) or NYCFC to score over 1.5 goals (-138)

Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Sporting Kansas City -0.5 (-115) -110 O 3.0 (-120)
San Jose +0.5 (-105) +265 U 3.0 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +275 N/A

Earthquakes Offering Big Road Value?

During my readings for the MLS Week 24 midweek action on Wednesday, I saw mention of the match between Orlando City and Sporting KC being a “loser go home” type of match. That being because each was (and still are) below their respective playoff lines.

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For SKC, they had more attempts (14-8), more shots on target (3-2), crosses (26-8), corners (11-2) and more possession (55.5% – 44.5%) than Orlando, yet still fell 1-0 on the road. They were six points out of a playoff spot prior to the match. The loss, coupled with a Portland win later in the night has now increased that gap to nine.

For SKC, they had more attempts (14-8), more shots on target (3-2), crosses (26-8), corners (11-2) and more possession (55.5% – 44.5%) than Orlando, yet still fell 1-0 on the road.

So if they haven’t “gone home” after the loss, then surely Saturday, when they host the San Jose Earthquakes at 8:30 pm EST, will be another such game with similar circumstances on the line.

While Sporting will have the home-field advantage, they’ll also have the disadvantage of playing on short rest. Their opponents, the Earthquakes, last played on Saturday, in a 2-1 road loss to Colorado.

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But the Earthquakes have been one of the league’s hottest teams over the last three-to-four months. In fact, from the time they defeated SKC 4-1 at home back on April 20, they had lost just two times in league play prior to last weekend.

San Jose is sixth in the West with 38 points. While their past two matches have seen them lose to Colorado and draw Columbus 1-1, previously they had won four-straight.

The Earthquakes 3-3-5 (W/D/L) record on the road also gives them the West’s sixth-best road record.

I’m going to side with the hotter, fresher Earthquakes at long odds. But given how long the odds are, the safer route when backing this road team may be a “Draw No Bet” or “Double Chance” play on San Jose at +170 or -110 odds respectively.

Pick: San Jose Earthquakes – Double Chance -110

MLS Week 24 Parlay Bet

Let’s take a look at small parlay for the weekend’s matches between RSL vs LAFC and Portland vs Atlanta.

Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Real Salt Lake +0.5 (-140) +210 O 3.0 (-130)
Los Angeles FC -0.5 (+115) +110 U 3.0 (+105)
Draw N/A +260 N/A

Los Angeles FC may be the class of the league, but when they travel to Rio Tinto Stadium to play Real Salt Lake on Saturday night at 10:00 pm EST, they’ll be playing another one of the league’s hottest sides.

RSL now sits fourth in the West, tied with Los Angeles Galaxy in third with 40 points. They are just one point behind Minnesota for second place, yet still an insurmountable 15 points behind LAFC.

Salt Lake is coming off a midweek 3-0 home win over the Seattle Sounders, which was their third-straight win. The win was even more impressive considering they held the Sounders to zero shots on target. Add to the fact they were dealing with the news of head coach Mike Petke’s firing earlier in the week, and RSL didn’t miss a beat.

Their previous two wins saw scorelines of 2-1 and 3-1.

They’ve now lost just once in their last ten league games. That current form has seen them collect 21 points in their past ten games and puts then only behind LAFC who has 24 points over the same timeframe.

At home, RSL is an impressive 9-1-2 with 25 goals scored, compared to just ten allowed.

There’s not much more to say about LAFC that hasn’t been said in several past game previews in this column. They’re good. Really good. And on pace to smash numerous MLS records. Carlos Vela needs just one goal or assist to break the single-season record for most combined goals and assists.

There are scenarios where they could actually already lock up a playoff position this weekend.

They score — a lot but often manage to concede as well, such as in last weekend’s 4-2 win over one the East’s stronger teams in the New York Red Bulls.

In their past ten road MLS matches, they’ve kept a clean sheet just twice.

Salt Lake are coming off a midweek 3-0 home win over the Seattle Sounders, which was their third-straight win.

LAFC and RSL have played in five historical matches with LAFC winning on four occasions. Both teams have scored three times, with one of those matches coming earlier this year in a 2-1 home win for LAFC back in March.

Los Angeles would again win 3-0 in Salt Lake in June in the US Open Cup.

With this matchup historically producing goals and both in fine form, backing both to find the scoresheet seems the way to go.

Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Portland -0.5 (+105) EVEN O 3.0 (-115)
Atlanta +0.5 (-130) +225 U 3.0 (-105)
Draw N/A +280 N/A

The Portland Timbers and Atlanta United will be the standalone match taking place on Sunday at 10:00 pm EST at Providence Park.

Both teams played important midweek matches, with Portland claiming a 3-2 win over Chicago to bring them above the playoff line. While Atlanta lifted the Campeones Cup against Club América with a 3-2 win of their own.

Atlanta is second in the East and third overall in the Supporter’s Shield race. It’s been a long time since they didn’t score at least once in a match. 19 matches overall to be exact in a 1-0 road loss to the Red Bulls on May 19.

It’s also been a while since the reigning Golden Boot winner Josef Martínez failed to find the back of the net. In Atlanta’s 2-1 win over New York City last weekend, Martínez scored in a record tenth-straight MLS game. He also scored a penalty in Wednesday’s final.

The Timbers are into game three of a ten-match homestand which will surely see them hold onto their playoff position. Portland has lost just once in eight home games and own a +11 goal-differential on home soil.

In MLS play, they’ve lost just once in their past nine, while only three teams have collected more than their 20 points from the past ten.

In Brian Fernández, they have a DP in peak form, scoring twice in Wednesday’s win, bringing his tally to ten goals in his 12-game MLS career. That already ties him for eighth in league scoring this year.

Expect an exciting match Sunday night in MLS Week 24 and at least a goal from each side.

Parlay Pick: Real Salt Lake vs LAFC – both teams to score & Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United – both teams to score (+108)

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