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MLS Week 27 Odds & Picks: Value on Road Wins for Toronto and LAFC?

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Apr 1, 2020 · 8:41 AM PDT

Jozy Altidore of TFC
Toronto FC are hoping star forward Jozy Altidore will be fit when they travel to Cincinnati this weekend. Photo By @JozyAltidore (Twitter).
  • MLS Week 27 will feature five matchups on Saturday
  • Can NYCFC take over first place in the East?
  • Will the Rapids frustrate the Sounders at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park

With most major soccer leagues around the world off for the international break, Major League Soccer is set to feature an abbreviated schedule as well. MLS Week 27 features just five matches this weekend

Let’s take a look at a few best bets from the weekend slate and provide some expert betting advice.

FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Cincinnati +0.5 (EVEN) +265 O 3.0 (-115)
Toronto -0.5 (-120) -120 U 3.0 (-105)
Draw N/A +300 N/A

*All odds taken 9/5/19

There’s a lot on the line for Toronto FC when they travel to Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati on Saturday night at 7:30 pm EST. Greg Vanney’s side finds themselves back in the playoff picture after last week’s 1-1 draw on the road to New England.

The draw gave them 38 points which bumped them to seventh place and just one point ahead of the Montreal Impact who lost at home 3-0 to DC United. While they’ll take the road point, they were minutes away from leaving with all three points before a Quentin Westberg gaff in the 86′ minute allowed Gustavo Bou to draw the Revs level.

Toronto will be hopeful of the return of leading scorer Jozy Altidore who sat out last week’s match with a quad strain, who is expected to be fit for this weekend.

TFC have picked up their play of late going undefeated in four straight league games and in six matches overall. With just six games left and four coming on the road, along with two against heavy-hitters New York City and LAFC, the impetus to pick up points this weekend will be strong.

Adding to that is the fact TFC will face a congested schedule later this month with two matches against Montreal in the Canadian Championship finals and this match begins to enter the must-win territory.

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It’s been a long time since Cincinnati tasted victory and last week was more of the same in a 3-1 road loss to FC Dallas. Their past three matches have seen them lose by that scoreline in back-to-back matches, as well as a 4-1 defeat as well. Their last victory came on July 13.

Across their current streak of eight winless matches, Cincy fell on the road to Toronto 2-1 back on July 21.

If TFC could hold off New England’s high-flying attack, they should be able to contain the league’s lowest scorers whose top scorer has no more than five goals on the year.

Orlando City vs Los Angeles FC Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Orlando +0.5 (+110) +300 O 3.0 (-140)
LAFC -0.5 (-130) -135 U 3.0 (+115)
Draw N/A +305 N/A

Something shocking happened last weekend. No, it wasn’t another MLS record falling or being close to eclipsed by Los Angeles FC, it was a loss for the second-year side, and home loss nonetheless, where they failed to score.

Supporter’s Shield leading LAFC controlled much of the play with nearly 77-percent possession and an edge in both attempts (23-5) and shots on target (8-4). But two Mason Toye first-half goals would pace Minnesota to the 2-0 win. LAFC also got a look at their team without the services of likely league MVP Carlos Vela. Vela was held out of the match to deal with a minor hamstring injury. His status for this weekend is still questionable.

Orlando have just one win in five and two in nine of their recent matches.

That match will be on the road to Orlando at 7:30 pm EST. The teams have met just once historically, a 4-1 home win for LAFC last year.

Orlando saw their playoff hopes slip further from reach last week when they lost 3-0 at San Jose. It was their second straight loss (both by clean sheets) and third without a win. They have just one win in five and two in nine of their recent matches.

The playoffs are still possible for the Lions, but with just five games remaining, four points out, and having played one more game than current seventh-place Toronto FC, time is certainly running out.

With little to play for outside of chasing records down the stretch run of the season, it’s possible Vela is held out again Saturday and LAFC ease up just a little. However, Sunday’s loss was just the fourth this season for LAFC. After each of the previous three losses, they responded with wins of 4-1, 5-1 and 4-3.

I like either of these road favorites (Toronto or LAFC) on their own to win the match as single plays. However, for some great value, a parlay of TFC and LAFC wins would pay out at +219 odds. With some uncertainty around Vela, several players on international duty and the fact the match means much more for the home side Orlando, I’ll look to a Toronto win and double chance (win or draw) parlay with LAFC.

MLS Week 26 Parlay Pick #1: Toronto FC win and LAFC double chance (+126)

New York City vs New England Revolution Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
New York City -0.5 (-125) -125 O 3.5 (+110)
New England +0.5 (EVEN) +305 U 3.5 (-145)
Draw N/A +275 N/A

New York City FC enters Week 27 just a single point behind first-place Philadelphia Union in the Eastern Conference standings. With the Union off this week, they could find themselves at the top of the East by Saturday evening.

NYCFC will host New England Revolution at 3:30 pm EST in the weekend’s first match. It’s a match between two sides who have been steadily climbing up the East’s standings in the last number of weeks.

New York won 3-1 on the road in Vancouver on Saturday which clinched their playoff spot. It was their fourth-straight win and seventh in their past nine overall. During their four-game win streak, they’ve outscored opponents 10-3. And while NYC are an impressive 8W-4D-1L at home this year, they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their past five home matches.

The Revs have cooled off a bit of late with just one win in their past five. However, they’ve drawn three times, meaning they’ve only lost once. That loss came to LAFC, and it’s been the only loss in their past 16 MLS matches, plus the first under the watch of head coach Bruce Arena.

The streak came perilously close to ending last week though, as the Revs needed a late-game blunder from TFC (mentioned earlier) to draw the Reds 1-1 on their home pitch. It’s rare that TFC keeps a clean sheet, much less on the road. So there is some concern about New England hitting the road and being successful offensively against a team that has only conceded 12 goals in 13 home matches.

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However, City will be forced to use some rotation on their backline with several absentees, specifically at centre-back with Alex Callens away on international duty and James Sands injured. They’ll also be without starting keeper Sean Johnson, plus Ronald Matarrita and Tony Rocha. Maxine Chanot has elected to delay his departure to be able to play Saturday.

With New York only entering the league in 2015, their historical head-to-head history has only included 11 matches. But, seven of those 11 have seen both teams scoring, including a streak of five-straight that was finally broken in their most recent matchup, a 1-0 road win for New England last September. Earlier in the 2018 season, the sides drew 2-2 in Foxborough.

Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Colorado -0.5 (+120) +125 O 3.0 (-110)
Seattle +0.5 (-145) +210 U 3.0 (-110)
Draw N/A +240 N/A

Colorado may be well out of the playoff conversation, but they are still fighting hard down the stretch and rose to the occasion in new head coach Robin Fraser’s debut last week. The Rapids went to Red Bull Arena and defeated the New York Red Bulls 2-0.

On Saturday, at 9:00 pm EST, Fraser will make his home coaching debut with the team.

The Rapids have won just eight matches this year and have returned only 30 points. It puts them second from bottom in the West, as well as nine places and 16 points lower than the Seattle Sounders.

Yet one stat that is quite comparable is the goals scored for both sides. Seattle has just one more goal scored (46-45) than the Rapids. It’s evidence that offensively, the Rapids have been competitive. Those 45 goals are more than two current Western Conference playoff teams’ totals and more than the totals of three in the East.

At home Colorado are scoring over two goals per game with 29 in 14 matches. However, their propensity to concede has also seen them allow two goals per game with 28.

The problem has been the 54 goals conceded, which is better than just two teams overall.

At home, Colorado is scoring over two goals per game with 29 in 14 matches. However, their propensity to concede has also seen them allow two goals per game with 28.

It’s hard to not see that trend continue this weekend against a Sounders team fresh off a 4-3 win over the LA Galaxy.

These teams met in the early stages of the season, which saw Seattle win 2-0 at home, a lead they held in the opening eight minutes.

There is some concern from the Seattle end as several players have been called up for international duty including the likes of Jordan Morris, Raúl Ruidíaz, Cristian Roldan, Brad Smith and Gustav Svensson to name a few. That does take out several of Seattle’s top offensive threats. Seattle will actually be missing ten regulars and one assistant coach.

But at home, in altitude, I think the Rapids are certainly capable of contributing to the scoresheet this time. Colorado has actually never failed to score at least once this year. 12 of their 14 home dates have also seen both teams score. The two that didn’t were 1-0 Rapids’ wins.

Games in Colorado this year have averaged a total of 4.07 goals per game. Take out those two 1-0 wins and that number is 4.58.

Though Colorado will also be shorthanded with the likes of Kei Kamara, Diego Rubio and others playing for their national teams. That means the leading five overall scorers among both teams won’t be playing this weekend. This could mean others step up and the goalscoring trends continue. It could also definitely bring the “Under” (-110) into play. At home with the more settled team and Fraser looking to impress in his home coaching debut, I’ll back Colorado on the double chance.

MLS Week 26 Parlay Pick #2:  NYCFC vs New England btts & Colorado Rapids double chance (-103)

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