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MLS Week 30 Odds & Picks: Four Playoff Spots Remain as Season Nears End

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 11:54 AM PDT

Portland Timbers
The Portland Timbers let a two-goal lead slip away on Wednesday night and find themselves in a tight race to claim a Western Conference Playoff spot. Photo By @TimbersFC (Twitter).
  • MLS Week 30 sees every team set to take the pitch on Sunday at either 5:00 pm or 7:30 pm EST
  • Will the Timbers find success in their first road game since July?
  • See the odds for a few of the key Western Conference matches being played this weekend in games that could decide playoff positions

MLS Week 30 continues after six midweek matches brought every team in the league to 32 games played. We now have six of ten playoff teams confirmed and LAFC crowned as Supporters’ Shield winners in just their second season. However, several teams still have much to play for with just two games remaining over the next two Sundays.

The New England Revolution look likely to claim the East’s final spot, with all of Chicago, Montreal and Orlando technically still in the hunt. While much is still to be decided in the West.

Let’s take a look at a few best bets from the weekend slate and provide some expert betting advice.

Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Sporting Kansas City -1.0 (+170) -110 O 2.5 (-130)
Portland +1.0 (-210) +255 U 2.5 (+105)
Draw N/A +275 N/A

All odds taken 9/27/19.

These two teams are each coming off midweek disappointments, just of varying degrees. For SKC, it was giving up a one-goal lead in Minnesota and eventually losing in the 90′ minute to see their playoff hopes extinguished.

For Portland, it was seeing their streak of winless results at home stretch to four. This time, despite scoring twice at home to New England and leading 2-0 after an 81′ minute goal, they allowed Gustavo Bou to cut the lead to one at the 87′ minute mark and conceded a penalty (albeit a questionable one) deep into stoppage time. It allowed New England to draw level at 2-2 with a goal in the 97′ from the spot.

The result leaves Portland sixth in the West with 45 points. Likely too far away from a top-four finish, considering Seattle is fourth with 50 points, but also just barely above eighth-place place San Jose with 44 points, which leaves me to think the bookmakers may have mispriced this one.

True, road teams are rarely favored in MLS, much less road teams who have not won in four matches.

However, in this case, we have the better team, with more to play for, given +255 odds to win the match.

In this case, we have the better team, with more to play for, given +255 odds to win the match.

SKC have also failed to win in four games, all of which were important matches where they needed the points. I question how much they’ll have left in the tank for Sunday’s match with the Timbers. Portland were 2-1 victors at home earlier this season and 3-2 winners in Kansas City last season in their past two head-to-head.

Having just played ten-straight matches at home in Providence Park, Portland was expected to be in a much better position at this point of the season. Perhaps a change of scenery will do them well on Sunday when they visit Kansas City at 7:30 pm EST.

There’s huge value on an outright win at +255. A safer play could be Portland with a double chance (win or draw) bet at -115. But I’ll look for the Timbers to at least find the back of the net a couple of times at +180.

Pick: Portland to score over 1.5 goals (+180)

Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Colorado 0, -0.5 (-110) +120 O 2.5 (-140)
Dallas 0, +0.5 (-115) +195 U 2.5 (+115)
Draw N/A +270 N/A

Both Colorado and Dallas should be fresh this Sunday as neither were involved in midweek action on Wednesday. The Rapids will host Dallas at 7:30 pm EST.

Dallas currently hold a playoff position in the West in seventh with 45 points and Colorado are on the outside looking in at ninth with 39 points. However, there are scenarios where technically the Rapids could still find themselves in the playoffs. That would require numerous results falling their way over the next week but it is possible. Just not likely.

With that said, both teams should be giving full effort this weekend and the Rapids have been especially strong of late under new head coach Robin Fraser. The Rapids were on a three-game win streak under Fraser prior to a 3-2 road loss to Toronto on September 15. Last week, despite falling behind early 2-0 to Sporting Kansas City, an early SKC red card altered the course of the match and the Rapids came back to win 3-2.

Colorado has now scored at least twice in five straight matches. However, they’ve also conceded five goals in their past three and have kept just five clean sheets all season.

These teams met up at the start of the season back in March, which saw Dallas win 2-1 at Toyota Stadium. That was the second-straight 2-1 result between the teams and fourth-straight time both teams found the back of the net.

FCD have failed to lock up a playoff position in recent weeks with a 4-0 loss to Chicago, 0-0 draw with Seattle and 1-1 draw with NYCFC in their past three matches.

Dallas aren’t strong on the road. They’re 3W-10L-3D on the year and have one win in their past 12 road matches. They’ve also been shut out in 4/5 and 6/8 recent road trips.

Despite that, I can’t trust the Rapids to keep a clean sheet in a match they’ll need to open up for to try and gain all three points. Dallas certainly have the talent to contribute to the scoresheet, especially with Zdenek Ondrasek in strong form with five goals in his past six .

Pick: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (+105)

MLS Week 30 Parlay Pick

Let’s look at a small two-team parlay between LA Galaxy vs Vancouver Whitecaps and Minnesota United vs LAFC.

MLS Week 30 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
LA Galaxy -2.0 (+110) -475 O 3.0 (-125)
Vancouver +2.0 (-130) +1000 U 3.0 (-115)
Draw N/A +525 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Minnesota 0, +0.5 (+105) +220 O 3.0 (-115)
LAFC 0, -0.5 (-135) -105 U 3.0 (-115)
Draw N/A +285 N/A

LA Galaxy vs Vancouver Whitecaps

For the first leg of this parlay, I’ll look towards a match which sees the third-place LA Galaxy hosting the 12th place Vancouver Whitecaps at 7:30 pm EST Sunday night.

It seems like just yesterday that the Galaxy were in real danger of missing the playoffs altogether. However, they’ve reeled off wins of 7-2 over Sporting Kansas City, 2-1 over Montreal and 2-1 over Real Salt Lake on Wednesday. Zlatan Ibrahimović and the Galaxy now find themselves third in the West, likely hosting a home playoff game and still capable of leapfrogging Minnesota United for second.

The Galaxy don’t always win pretty and are way too reliant on Ibra and Christian Pavon, each of whom had a goal and assist midweek. But, they are always strong at home with 11 wins on the year.

Los Angeles have scored 11 goals across their past three matches and have scored at least twice in seven of their  past eight. On home field, they’ve scored two goals or more in six of seven and they’ll look to continue that trend in the regular season home finale against the Whitecaps.

Outside of pride, Vancouver has little to play for right now and may save their best performance for their season and home finale next week. The Caps fell 2-0 to LA earlier this year at home and have allowed two, three and three goals in their past three road games.

YouTube video

Minnesota United vs LAFC

To complete the second leg of the parlay let’s make it an all-LA special and tie-in a result with Minnesota United hosting LAFC, also at 7:30 pm EST.

Los Angeles FC had hit a dry spell at one of the least opportune times with the MLS Cup Playoffs approaching. Prior to their midweek match at home to Houston, they had failed to win in five straight. It meant their inevitable Supporters’ Shield title was a little drawn out. But it was officially confirmed on Wednesday night in a 3-1 home win over the Dynamo.

Coincidentally, their previous swoon really began with a September 1st, 2-0 home loss to these same Loons. It was the first time they had failed to score a goal in MLS play since June 28. Their winning streak was actually halted one game prior though, in a 3-3 draw to the crosstown rival Galaxy. Following the loss to Minnesota, LAFC drew 2-2 with Orlando, and 1-1 to both Philadelphia and Toronto before Wednesday’s win.

In their draw to Toronto, they were actually lucky to grab a point at home, as they were losing 1-0 until being awarded a late stoppage-time penalty.

What all this means is that there is now less to play for Sunday. That is, depending on how much importance head coach Bob Bradley places on all-time records. LAFC have 68 points. Placing them just three behind the all-time record of 71 set by the Red Bulls last year. There is also the all-time goals record that captain Carlos Vela is chasing down. With a goal scored through penalty on Wednesday, Vela now has 30 on the year. Two ahead of Zlatan’s 28, and one back of Josef Martinez’ all-time record of 31 goals scored in a season last year.

The big question will be if head coach Bob Bradley decides to rest his star player, or others, or to attempt to chase down history.

The Loons are coming off an accomplishment of their own from midweek, securing the club’s first-ever playoff birth with a last-minute win over Sporting Kansas City (2-1). SKC led for most of the match with a goal just seven minutes in. But after numerous chances, Minnesota finally broke through in the second half with goals at the 70′ and 90′ minutes.

While both teams may take their foot off the pedal just slightly this weekend, it’s Minnesota with more to play for in the immediate future. Sitting second in the West with 52 points, they’ve yet to clinch home-field. The Loons beat LAFC 5-1 on their home field last year and I’m betting on them at least securing a point on Sunday.

A single point for LAFC would also suffice for them, with a win at home to Colorado next week allowing them to break the all-time points record. If nothing else, their post-game celebrations (pictured earlier), don’t look like a team too focused on Sunday’s match.

MLS Week 30 Parlay Pick: LA Galaxy to score Over 1.5 team goals and Minnesota double chance (+137)

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