Napoli vs Salzburg Champions League Matchday 4 Odds, Picks & Betting Preview

• Napoli host Salzburg at San Paolo Stadium on November 5, 2019
• In three all-time meetings, the total average goals scored between the sides if four
• Napoli are short home favorites in UCL Group Stage Matchday 4 odds

UEFA Champions League Group Stage Matchday 4 sees the reverse of the fixtures from Matchday 3. Italian side Napoli will host Austria’s Red Bull Salzburg on Tuesday, November 5, 2019 at 4:00 pm EST. Back on Matchday 3, Napoli were 3-2 winners at Salzburg’s Red Bull Arena.

Currently first in UCL Group E, the Italians have been installed as short -120 favorites on Tuesday. Napoli’s current Champions League odds sit at 38-1, while Salzburg are wide outsiders at 180-1.

Napoli vs Salzburg Champions League Odds

Odds taken Nov. 1

The October 23 matchup was an exciting five-goal thriller with Napoli taking the early lead just 17 minutes into the match, with Salzburg drawing level before the half to send the teams to the locker room at 1-1.

The goals were scored by Napoli’s Dries Mertens and Salzburg’s Erling Braut Håland, who both scored their second goals of the match past the hour-mark in the second half. While Håland drew Salzburg level in the 72′ minute, Lorenzo Insigne would put Napoli ahead for good just a minute later for the 3-2 win.

The result kept Napoli at the top of the group table at seven points with a 2-1-0 (WDL) record, just one point ahead of second-place Liverpool who were 4-1 winners on the road in Belgium over Genk.

Salzburg, who’ve now lost to both Liverpool and Napoli, sit third in the group with just three points, ahead of only Genk with one point.

Historically this will only be the fourth meeting between the teams. Prior to this season’s earlier UCL match, they’d only met in last season’s Europa League. Both teams were comfortable winners on their home pitch with Napoli winning 3-0 in Italy and Salzburg 3-1 winners in Austria.

Champions League Group E as it stands:

1⃣ Napoli – 7
2⃣ Liverpool – 6
3⃣ Salzburg – 3
4⃣ Genk – 1

— GOAL India (@Goal_India) October 24, 2019

Napoli Strong at San Paolo

The side from Naples will enter Tuesday’s UCL match in decent,  yet unspectacular form. While they are undefeated across their past seven matches in all competitions leading into their weekend Serie A match away to Roma, they still sit only sixth in the league table. For a team that entered the season with aspirations of dethroning champions Juventus, this surely is not good enough.

Napoli are 5-3-2 (WDL) in the league with 18 points but are eight points adrift of the summit and table-toppers Juve with 26 points. And while they’ve lost just twice this season, they have just five victories, while struggling to keep things tight at the back with 13 goals conceded in their opening ten matches.

ℹ️ Most goals for Napoli:

⚽️1⃣1⃣6⃣ Dries Mertens
⚽️1⃣1⃣5⃣ Diego Maradona#UCL | @en_sscnapoli pic.twitter.com/q8Hu5OZA3n

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) October 30, 2019

In league play they’ve drawn back-to-back matches 1-1 with SPAL and 2-2 with Atalanta. Including their Matchday 3 win over the Austrians, Napoli have now scored six and conceded five across their past three matches overall.

Napoli’s home form in the Champions has been strong historically with just one home defeat across their past eight matches. That has included keeping clean sheets against Liverpool 2-0 this campaign and 1-0 last season. In fact, in those eight matches they’ve kept four clean sheets and only conceded multiple goals once, that being to Man City (4-2) in 2017.

Salzburg Soaring Domestically but Fading in UCL

The Austrians have yet to taste defeat in their domestic Bundesliga campaign with a 10-2-0 record and 32 points. They hold a narrow three-point lead though over second-place LASK with 29 points. The main difference between the sides is Salzburg’s unrelenting offense. While LASZ own a slight advantage in goals allowed with eight compared to Salzburg’s 12, Salzburg have scored a whopping 50 goals compared to the 26 of LASK. That’s 20 more than any team in the league.

Salzburg goalscorers own four of the top 15 spots in the league scoring race, led by Håland who sits first with 12.

Bayern are one of over 20 clubs scouting and monitoring the progress of Red Bull Salzburg striker Erling Braut Håland (19). Salzburg expect that they will be able to sell Håland for more than €60m in the summer. [@FabrizioRomano] pic.twitter.com/v9IYN1ehE7

— Bayern & Germany (@iMiaSanMia) November 1, 2019

The team’s most recent performances included a 5-0 midweek win in Cup play over Ebreichsdorf on October 30 and last weekend’s 3-2 league win over Rapid Wien. This weekend will see them travel to Mattersburg prior to their UCL match.

Håland was again involved in the scoring during their Cup match and his success has carried over to the Champions League as well. Håland currently leads all UCL scorers during the group stage with six goals. While odds have not been released for goalscorers in next week’s match yet, Håland as an “Anytime Goalscorer” has to be considered.

With 11 total goals thus far, only Bayern Munich with 13 have scored more than Die Mozartstädter in the group stage. Over three matchdays, they smashed Genk 6-2 at home, were defeated 4-3 in Anfield to Liverpool and lost 3-2 at Red Bull Arena to Napoli. This leaves them in real need of collecting points soon if they hope to advance.

Napoli vs Salzburg UCL Stats

Best Bet

With the amount of firepower that will be on the field come Tuesday, betting anything other than goals would seem foolish. Not only does Håland lead the group stage with six goals, but Napoli’s Dries Mertens also ranks in the top ten with three.

After failing to claim all three points on their own home pitch on Matchday 3, a road win in Naples may be too much to ask for the Austrians, but Jesse Marsch’s men should still be up for the challenge.

4 – FC Red Bull Salzburg became only the fourth team to score three goals away at Anfield in the UEFA Champions League (after Barcelona, Chelsea and Real Madrid), and the only one of those four to fail to win the game. Valiant. pic.twitter.com/XjkC32jyXo

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 2, 2019

Granted the Austrian league does not offer the stiffest of competition, but across all 54 matches, Salzburg has played in 2019, only 12 times have they failed to score at least two goals. Of those, several came during friendlies with little at stake.

Salzburg not only has the second-most goals in the competition thus far, but also rank third in both attempts on goal and shots on target (53/23).

Both teams to score and Over 2.5 total goals should be a banker, yet offers little value, so instead I’ll look to Salzburg to find the back of the net at least twice.

Best Bet: Salzburg Over 1.5 goals (+105)