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After Humiliating 5-1 Defeat & Niko Kovac Sacking, Bayern Munich’s Bundesliga Odds Sink to Lowest Point

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer News

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 9:22 AM PDT

Ronert Lewandwoski celebrates another goal for Bayern Munich
Prolific striker Robert Lewandowski is in the form of his life after scoring three times in the UCL this season and hitting another 12 in Germany's Bundesliga for Bayern Munich. Photo from @UEFA (Twitter)
  • Niko Kovac fired on the back of 5-1 defeat
  • Borussia Monchengladbach three points clear at the top
  • See the updated odds for all the contenders to win the 2019-20 Bundesliga title

After a 5-1 defeat at the weekend, Bayern Munich fired Niko Kovac. As a result, their Bundesliga odds shifted to -250. The Bavarian superclub are still the heavy favorites to win the title this season, but this lengthening in their price leaves them with their worst odds of the season. As recently as October 2nd, Bayern were -490 to win the league.

Borussia Dortmund’s price has shortened from +530 down to +330 over the same period. Leipzig have moved in from +1100 to +880. Borussia Monchengladbach are setting the early pace in the German top flight, resulting in their odds moving from +32000 on October 2nd to just +2400.

2019-20 Bundesliga Odds

Team Odds
Bayern Munich -250
Borussia Dortmund +350
RB Leipzig +900
Borussia Monchengladbach +2800
Bayer Leverkusen +12500
Eintracht Frankfurt +12500
VFL Wolfsburg +20000
Schalke 04 +25000
Hoffenheim +25000
Freiburg +50000

Odds taken Nov. 5. 

Bayern Resurgence?

The decision to move on from Kovac wasn’t entirely surprising. Clubs of Bayern’s stature do not take well to heavy defeats. Only four points behind Gladbach, though, Kovac’s management did not push them out of contention. Bayern face Gladbach on December 7th – assuming a new manager is appointed by then, that will be a great opportunity to regain control of the title race.

Erik ten Haag recently ruled himself out of the running to replace Kovac, but it was reported on Tuesday that they have made an approach to Paris Saint-Germain for Thomas Tuchel. Jose Mourinho is still one of the frontrunners as well. Whoever they appoint, there’s no question that Bayern have the squad to make up this early deficit.

The other key thing for bettors to consider is that Bayern’s underlying numbers have been solid. Their expected points tally is the best in the Bundesliga. Their defense – despite conceding 16 in 10 Bundesliga matches – has been relatively solid with only Wolfsburg and Schalke boasting a lower non-penalty expected goals against.

Chance creation remains the best in the league, and with the attacking talent at their disposal, there’s no reason for that to change. Poor finishing has been an issue so far this term (Robert Lewandowski is the only player with more than two Bundesliga goals), but that should improve.

Gladbach Lead the Charge

Leipzig, Dortmund and Gladbach are all ahead of Bayern currently. Leipzig have a goal difference advantage, while Dortmund have a lead of a solitary point. They were the pre-season favorites to push Bayern this term, but both have suffered from mixed form of late.

Leipzig smashed Mainz 8-0 at the weekend to bring an end to a four-match winless run in the Bundesliga. Dortmund have only lost once this term, but they’ve picked up just two victories in their last six league outings. Lucien Favre’s side face Bayern this weekend and victory would put them in a superb position heading into a run of five straight matches against teams in the bottom half.

Gladbach, who have lost to Leipzig and Dortmund already this term, have been an entertaining team to watch this season. Their defense, despite conceding just 10 goals in the Bundesliga, has been vulnerable as their 15.24 non-penalty expected goals against is a mid-table level defense. Offensively, however, they have created chances for fun.

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Tough to Call

Bayern’s financial advantage has seen them dominate the Bundesliga, winning the title for seven consecutive seasons. The depth of their squad makes it hard to look past them lifting the trophy again this term, despite this period of relative turmoil.

Of the challengers, league-leading Gladbach provide the best value at the moment. Their defense is a concern against the top sides, but that attack will fire them to plenty of victories when they face the teams they are expected to beat. Gladbach’s price will likely drop further in coming weeks as they face Werder Bremen and Union Berlin in their next two.

Pick: Gladbach at +2800

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