Porto vs Roma (03-06-19) Odds & Predictions: UCL Round of 16 Leg 2

• Porto takes on Roma on Wednesday, March 6th at Estádio do Dragão
• Porto scored a vital away goal in Rome
• A place in the UEFA Champions League last 16 awaits

This tie is finely balanced with Roma narrowly winning the first-leg 2-1 thanks to two goals from 19-year-old striker Nicolo Zaniolo. While it’s a narrow lead, one that Porto will be confident of overturning, it’s also one the Italians will back themselves to defend.

For many years, clubs from Serie A (the Italian Premier League) have built a reputation on sound and solid defense and as such, this is a tricky one to call. For spectators, both in the Estádio do Dragão and on TV, it promises to be a fascinating evening.

Porto vs Roma Odds

*Odds taken 03/04/19
Porto’s home form has given them the edge in the eyes of the bookmakers, and with an away goal these odds are well justified. Roma will likely need an away goal of their own, which is reflected in the +240.

FC Porto 1-2 Benfica match report by @P_SRibeiro, including video highlights https://t.co/lFfYzRM6TE pic.twitter.com/XjJClpIhDe

— Tom Kundert (@PortuGoal1) March 3, 2019

Interestingly, neither team is in tip-top form and both lost at the weekend to their fiercest rivals, with Porto losing 2-1 to Benfica in the Primeira Liga, while Roma were being hammered 3-0 on the turf of their fellow Romans, Lazio.

Roma may miss out on qualification for next season’s Champions League, which makes progression in this year’s competition doubly important.

Events in the Italian capital left Roma in an unhealthy position in Serie A and they now have a struggle on their hands to make top four in Serie A. As a result, they may miss out on qualification for next season’s Champions League, which makes progression in this year’s competition doubly important.

Porto are in rather less danger of missing out on next season’s Champions League, but the defeat by Benfica did see them lose top spot in the Primeira Liga.

Full-time. Defeat in the derby.
#ASRoma #LazioRoma pic.twitter.com/QkkgkEyGdF

— AS Roma English (@ASRomaEN) March 2, 2019

Champions League Pressure Cooker

Both teams will, however, point to this massive tie as mitigation for their defeats at the weekend, such is the pressure brought on by the knockout stages of the Champions League. What may end up being significant is Porto’s away goal at the Stadio Olimpico. Despite losing, this really has put them in a strong position as, put simply, a 1-0 win would be sufficient to send them into the next round.

ROMA 2-1 PORTO #UCL HIGHLIGHTS https://t.co/5ZNbFTgClF pic.twitter.com/gh22TajueD

— Sport (@MatrizSport) February 28, 2019

Also in their favour is some brilliant home form and up until the Benfica defeat at the weekend, they had won 15 games on the bounce. Manager Sérgio Conceição will be hoping defeat at the weekend is merely a blip in this scintillating home form rather than the start of an indifferent run.

Roma’s Struggles on the Road

Another thing that tips the balance towards Porto is the fact that Roma, despite the reputation of Italian sides on the road, have lost their last seven Champions League knockout stage matches played away from home. In fact, the last time they won an away game in the tournament’s round of 16 was way back in March 2008, when they beat the mighty Real Madrid.

No Shortage of Goals in  Porto

Earlier in the season, Porto suffered a lack of goals due to the absence of Cameroonian striker Vincent Aboubakar through injury, but recently those goals have been provided by Mali international Moussa Marega, who scored five times in their six group-stage matches.

Marega missed the first leg of this tie through injury but is ahead of schedule in his recovery and is expected to start against Roma. This could prove significant.

It goes without saying that this one will be tight and probably go to the wire but that away goal for Porto stands out. An early goal for the Portuguese will put them in control of the tie and we see them edging the game and going through to the last eight.

Pick: Porto