Liga NOS Matchday 8 Odds & Picks: European Action Creates Upset Value

• Surprising league leader Famalicao (+900) faces its first major test at traditional powerhouse Porto (-400) on Sunday
• Belenenses (+105) hosts Aves (+245) in battle of the basement on Saturday
• Matchday 8 winds down on Monday with Sporting Braga (-222) fresh off a signature win in Turkey hosting Santa Clara (+520)

It’s been nearly a month since a full slate of games were played in Portugal’s top flight, but Liga NOS returns this Friday with a Matchday 8 chock-full of intrigue for bettors to consider.

Four of the league’s top six squads saw hard-fought European action during the week, which should shake up the usually predictable nature of Portugal’s domestic league this weekend.

The results were varied — the best was scored by Braga, which ran out 2-1 winners in Turkey over Besiktas, while Porto slumped to a disappointing 1-1 draw at home against Rangers — but the group as a whole acquitted itself well.

Even Vitoria Guimaraes, with just three wins from its opening seven matches (3-3-1), pushed Arsenal to the brink before succumbing to a 3-2 defeat in North London.

Let’s break down three key matchups in Matchday 8.

Belenenses vs. Aves Odds

*All odds taken October 24, 2019

Any time the 16th- and 18th-place teams in an 18-team league collide, you know two things: Both squads are going to make mistakes, and both squads are likely to play for three points because of the rare opportunity for self-belief.

Saturday’s hosts Belenenses (1-2-4) have earned a result in less than half their games this season, and remain mired in front office problems.

Aves (1-0-7) have found an eye-opening number of ways to lose matches, and fired coach Augusto Inacio following an embarrassing 5-2 defeat to second-division side Farense last weekend in domestic cup play.

Under-23s coach Leandro Pires will take the reins while the club continues its coaching search, though it will hardly instil faith in a fan base that has seen its club beaten soundly all season.

Take the hosts, who will likely be bolstered by the league debut of 34-year-old national team vet Silvestre Varela, along with the return of midfielder Andre Sousa.

Pick: Belenenses (+105)

Porto vs. Famalicao Odds

Famalicao (6-1-0) are in the process of changing Portuguese soccer’s power structure.

At least, they’ve started down the path; Joao Pedro Sousa’s squad has stacked win after win against mid- and lower-table teams, and sprinkled in a 2-1 away win at Sporting for good measure.

It’s a fascinating squad, with dynamic young loanees like Nehuen Perez (Atletico) and Uros Racic (Valencia) mixed in with Liga NOS vets such as goalkeeper Rafael Defendi, defender Lionn and leading frontman Fabio Martins.

Porto (6-0-1) have won six matches on the hop since a shocking opening-day defeat at Gil Vicente, and are their usual high-octane selves. Sergio Conceicao’s starting XI is arguably the best in the country, and they should see off the upstarts from Vila Nova de Famalicao.

6 – Excluding penalties, FC Porto striker Zé Luís has scored more goals than any other player in the Primeira Liga this season (6). Form. pic.twitter.com/NIqnJL7i3g

— OptaJoao (@OptaJoao) September 23, 2019

But Porto have slipped up a couple times already this season — against Gil Vicente in league play and Feyenoord in Europa League — so the possibility remains. Don’t forget the hefty toll a 1-1 draw midweek against Rangers could have taken.

Pick: Famalicao +1.5 (-110)

Sporting Braga vs. Santa Clara Odds

Make no mistake: Braga (2-2-3) did exceptionally well to win away at Besiktas on Thursday, and the extra day afforded them vs. Santa Clara (3-2-2) with the Monday kickoff may help.

But Sa Pinto’s squad has been maddeningly inconsistent, and their Matchday 8 visitors from the Madeira islands actually sit three points ahead of them in the table.

The Turkey trip could result in tired legs for Braga, and Santa Clara does not score (4 GF) or concede (4 GA) in league play. Consider the “Under”.

Pick: Under 2.5 (+100)