RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich Odds & Prediction – Bundesliga Matchday 4
- RB Leipzig host Bayern Munich on Saturday, September, 11th
- Leipzig haven’t beaten Bayern since 2018 and have started this season poorly
- Read below for the latest odds, betting preview and a pick
Meeting at the Red Bull Arena on Saturday, September, 11th, Leipzig and Bayern Munich have provided fans with some captivating duels in recent seasons. Those matchups have tended to go in the favor of Bayern, however, the reigning champions haven’t lost to Leipzig since 2018. As a result, it’s hardly surprising to see Bayern as the bookies’ favorite for Saturday’s clash.
Returning after the international break, both teams have endured some disappointing results already this season. Leipzig have suffered 1-0 defeats to Wolfsburg and Mainz, while Bayern were held to a 1-1 draw by Borussia Monchengladbach in their first match of the campaign. Already with ground to make up, this fixture comes at the worst time for Leipzig. Bayern will see this as a great time to take on one of their main challengers for the Bundesliga crown.
Leipzig vs Bayern Munich Odds
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leipzig vs Bayern | RBL +1 (-145) | BAY -1 (+270) | RBL +210 | BAY +110 | DRAW +280 | Ov 3.5 (+114) | Un 2.5 (-138) |
Odds as of Sep 10 at FanDuel
Nagelsmann’s Return
Facing his former team for the first time, Julian Nagelsmann takes on his successor Jesse Marsch. Leipzig are in a period of post-Nagelsmann transition, further emphasized by the departures of Dayot Upamecano and Marcel Sabitzer, who should both be available for Bayern this weekend.
Julian Nagelsmann speaking to @mano_bonke & @kessler_philipp ahead of Saturday's game: "It's a special game when you play against your ex club. I'm expecting a heated atmosphere, most of the 34,000 spectators are probably not so happy that I'll be back. It's going to be exciting" pic.twitter.com/YzOAQtttOy
— Bayern & Germany (@iMiaSanMia) September 9, 2021
Leipzig already faced an uphill battle to close the gap to Bayern. Those two signings are yet another example of the Bavarian superclub weakening their opposition. The chasm in quality and depth is going to be evident on Saturday – Leipzig’s defense is desperately missing Upamecano.
The backline has been vulnerable thus far and Marcel Halstenberg remains on the sidelines. There’s hope that Benjamin Henrichs and Angelino could return this weekend.
Sabitzer: "When the rumours first emerged, Dayot (Upamecano) texted me and said: come here, it's cool here and you'll be happy" [YouTube/fcbayern] pic.twitter.com/uIj3dhYXd3
— Bayern & Germany (@iMiaSanMia) September 8, 2021
Bayern have their own fitness concerns with Thomas Muller and Alphonso Davies headlining a lengthy list of doubts, but the quantity of high-level players available to Nagelsmann means they will still field an incredibly strong team.
Midfield Struggles
With Nagelsmann spoilt for choice across his squad, it’s easy to get distracted by Robert Lewandowski and his accomplices in the attack. The midfield is where Bayern can control this game, though.
While Sabitzer is no more than a squad player at the reigning champions, his departure from Leipzig weakens them in the middle third. Marsch is asking a lot of Tyler Adams and Kevin Kampl against Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka, two of the best at their position in world football.
Jesse Marsch on losing Sabitzer and Upamecano to Bayern: "That might not be ideal, but the situation in football is always changing. Bayern is a great club. They always have a lot of money and flexibility. They often use this power to find the best players in the league." [Sky] pic.twitter.com/sP20szvp2W
— Bayern & Germany (@iMiaSanMia) September 9, 2021
These teams have controlled possession in their matches so far. While Nagelsmann generally favors fast-paced attacking, Bayern are inevitably going to have the majority of possession at Red Bull Arena this weekend. Marsch could bring another man into midfield to congest the center of the pitch, though much of the challenge with Bayern is their threat from wide areas. Die Roten is sixth in the Bundesliga in crosses per match. Leipzig being without their first-choice full-backs is a massive factor.
Leipzig vs Bayern Munich Bundesliga Statistics
| 10th | Position | 3rd |
| 4 | Goals scored | 9 |
| 59.1% | Average possession | 61.9% |
| 4 yellows, 0 reds | Cards | 1 yellow, 0 reds |
| 17.3 | Shots per match | 18.3 |
| 52% | Shots inside the area | 65% |
| +2.2 | Expected goal difference | +5 |
Adapting Teams
Both of these teams are adjusting to life under new managers. As such, only a limited amount can be read into their previous meetings. Nagelsmann has switched dugouts. Marsch is trying to imprint his tactical ideology on the team.
Bayern are deserving favorites, of course. They have eight goals across their last two Bundesliga matches, and even with some important players set to miss out, they are by far the stronger team on paper.
😍 @AlphonsoDavies is back at training, along with @esmuellert_!
Welcome back, guys 👋⚽#MiaSanMia #FCBayern pic.twitter.com/6rBJbm7pPn
— FC Bayern English (@FCBayernEN) September 9, 2021
Leipzig have lost just three of their last 32 home league matches, however. One of those was to Bayern in April.
While still a work in progress, and with some defensive concerns, Bayern should have enough to take all three points on Saturday. The +110 price is too good to turn down given Leipzig’s early season woes.
Pick: Bayern Munich Moneyline (+110)
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
