Roma vs AC Milan Odds & Prediction – Serie A Week 32
- It’s Roma vs AC Milan in round 32 of the 2022-23 Serie A
- This game is a bonafide six-pointer in the race for next season’s Champions League places
- Find our prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks
In round 32 of Italy’s Serie A, it’s Roma vs AC Milan on Saturday, April 29. It all kicks off in the Stadio Olimpico at 2:00 pm ET.
With seven rounds of games left, fourth-placed AC Milan are tied on points with fifth-placed Roma, as the battle for the fourth UEFA Champions League spot nears crunch time.
The pair are even tied on goal difference and are only separated by virtue of Milan having scored more goals.
We preview our Roma vs AC Milan picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.
Roma vs AC Milan Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Roma | +170 |
| AC Milan | +175 |
| Draw | +195 |
The bookmakers have Roma listed as narrow plus-money favorites at +170 with an implied home win probability of 37%, while Milan are on offer at +175 to win the game with a probability of 36.4%. The draw is priced at +195 in the Roma vs AC Milan odds and is implied at 34%.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on April 28.
Roma vs AC Milan Over/Under and Spread
With the benchmark set at 2.5 goals in the game, the bookies have listed the under at -190 and the over at a more tempting +155, reflective of how close and low-scoring the first leg was.
Roma vs AC Milan Preview
Recent wins over Torino and Udinese had given Jose Mourinho’s Roma the upper hand in the battle for the third and fourth Champions League spots, but their 3-1 defeat at Atalanta last weekend left the door open for AC Milan to go above them on the number of goals scored.
With Juve having had their 15-point deduction overturned, they have now gone above both Roma and Milan in the battle for third and fourth but, crucially, lost to Inter at the weekend. The Old Lady now sits just three points ahead of them both in third place, so little wonder that this one is being labeled a six-pointer in the Italian press.
Getting ready for Milan. 🔜 #ASRoma pic.twitter.com/VTDWwJUgsl
— AS Roma English (@ASRomaEN) April 26, 2023
Massive Month for Mourinho’s Men
This is a huge month for the Giallorossi who, in addition to their domestic charge for a Champions League place, also have a two-legged Europa League semifinal against Bayer Leverkusen to look forward to, after coming from behind to beat Feyenoord in the quarters.
Roma’s recent record against Milan isn’t great though – they haven’t won any of their last six Serie A meetings – but on the plus side, they have a fine recent defensive record, especially at home where they have recorded seven clean sheets in their last eight games. This is the best current record in Europe’s top five leagues.
No Scudetto for Milan
This has not been the title charge that coach Stefano Pioli wanted for his young Milan team, especially after leading them to last season’s Scudetto, but they have been in the top four all season, despite Napoli running away with the title.
Only four defeats in the first half of the campaign had them believing but three straight defeats at the end of January effectively ended their title hopes. Their biggest problem has been their away form which, most recently, has seen them lose on four of their last seven road trips.
Getting ready for a top-4 six-pointer! 👊#RomaMilan #SempreMilan
Brought to you by @play_eFootball pic.twitter.com/KmIkTBefbY— AC Milan (@acmilan) April 26, 2023
Good Recent Milan Record Against Roma
On a more positive note, Milan’s away record against Roma is good, and a win here would make it three wins on the spin against Mourinho’s men in the Stadio Olimpico.
More recently, when these two met in the San Siro in January in the reverse fixture, it looked set for a Milan win with them leading 2-0 with just three minutes of normal times left, but an 87th-minute strike from Ibanez and another from Tammy Abraham in the 93rd saw the game end 2-2.
Roma vs AC Milan Team Lineups and Injuries
Roma Projected Lineup: Patricio, Mancini, Kumbulla, Ibanez, Zalewski, Cristante, Matic, Spinazzola, Pellegrini, El Shaarawy, Abraham.
Injuries & absences: Karsdorp, Wijnaldum (doubtful), Smalling, Llorente.
AC Milan Projected Lineup: Maignan, Calabria, Kjaer, Tomori, Hernandez, Tonali, Krunic, Diaz, Bennacer, Leao,Giroud.
Injuries & absences: Ibrahimovic.
Roma vs AC Milan Head-to-Head Stats
| 17-5-9 | Serie A record 2022-23 | 16-8-7 |
| 43 / 29 | Goals for / against | 51 / 37 |
| 13.0 | Shots-per-game* | 14.7 |
| 48.7 | Possession (%)* | 53.9 |
| 81.4 | Pass success rate (%)* | 81.6 |
| WWLWWL | Form guide (all comps) | WDWDDW |
*Stats from WhoScored.com.
Roma vs AC Milan Prediction
As the odds suggest, this one is on a knife edge and the stakes could hardly be higher. The Mourinho factor also comes into play with Roma’s wily old coach an acknowledged expert in managing these types of occasions.
It’s almost certain to be low-scoring and tight and so, for me, on this occasion there is value in betting on the low-scoring draw.
Roma vs AC Milan Picks: Roma & AC Milan to draw (+195) / Under 2.5 goals (-190)
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Once just a sports fanatic, fan-turned-writer Gary Gowers has been featured on European television and radio networks to discuss several professional football clubs. His work can be found in an assortment of publications like The Metro, MyFootballWriter.com, and BBC Radio Norfolk.
