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Seattle Sounders vs Toronto FC 2019 MLS Cup Final Odds & Betting Preview

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 12:18 PM PDT

Seattle Sounders
The Seattle Sounders are hosting their first-ever MLS Cup Final when they host Toronto FC on Sunday. Photo By @MLS (Twitter)
  • Seattle Sounders and Toronto FC square off in the 2019 MLS Cup Final on November 10
  • It’s the third meeting between these sides in the final over the past four seasons
  • Odds favor the home side Sounders to come away with their second title in four years

In a matchup likely few predicted, it’s the Seattle Sounders vs Toronto FC in the 2019 MLS Cup Final on Sunday, November 10, at 3:00 pm EST. Entering the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs, Seattle owned average MLS Cup odds of 13-1, while Toronto were wide outsiders at 24-1.

These two teams will square off for the third time in four years for the chance to win the Cup with Seattle winning in 2016 and Toronto in 2017.

While some may have been hoping for something different in this year’s final, or likely expected to see record-breaking LAFC representing the West, this edition of Seattle vs Toronto will have one big difference. While 2016 and 2017 took place in Toronto, the 2019 final will be hosted at Seattle’s CenturyLink Field.

Seattle vs Toronto MLS Cup Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total Odds to Win MLS Cup
Seattle -0.5 (-115) -105 O 2.5 (-120) -225
Toronto +0.5 (-105) +290 U 2.5 (EVEN) +185
Draw N/A +255 N/A N/A

Odds taken Nov. 7

As mentioned above, it’s round three between these sides. Seattle famously failed to register a shot on target in 2016’s final, yet went on to win 1-0 on penalties.

In 2017, Toronto won 1-0 on the road in the regular season and was then able to exact revenge with a 2-0 home victory in the 2017 final.

Since their last finals matchup, Seattle has taken each of the past two regular season meetings. They were 2-1 winners in Toronto last year and 3-2 winners at home this season.

This year’s match was a goal-fest, however, four of the five goals were scored by players unlikely to be participating on Sunday. For Seattle, Will Bruin, who scored twice in that match, will 100-percent not feature as he’s suffered a torn ACL. However, he was only filling in for Raul Ruidíaz back in April. Ruidíaz had 11 regular season goals to go along with three goals and three assists in this year’s playoffs, so no dropoff should be expected there.

With six points, Ruidíaz has played a part in six of the Sounders’ nine playoff goals this term. In fact, since coming to Seattle, he’s now produced a point in all five playoff matches, while scoring in four of them. Overall, he has nine points in five career playoff games.

For Toronto, they look to once again be without star striker Jozy Altidore, who scored two goals of his own back in that April matchup. He’s been on the sidelines with a quad injury all playoffs and was quoted as saying it would take, “A bit of a miracle” for him to play in the final. However, head coach Greg Vanney more recently said, “It will take a lot to keep Jozy out.” Whether he’s playing mind games with the Sounders is still unknown.

Sounders Dethrone Supporters’ Shield Champs

The Sounders found themselves in a familiar position entering the MLS Cup Playoffs. That being a second-place finish in the Western Conference—a spot they have finished in for three consecutive years. In their MLS Cup-winning year in 2016, they were fourth.

Seattle’s path the final included a wild 4-3 win at home to FC Dallas and a 2-0 blanking of Real Salt Lake in front of their fans. In the conference final they traveled to LAFC’s Banc of California Stadium and were the better team from start to finish against the Supporters’ Shield champs.

Outside of an early Eduard Atuesta free-kick strike in the 17th-minute, the Rave Green looked in charge the rest of the way, quickly leveling and taking the 2-1 lead before the half. Ruidíaz and Nicolas Lodeiro were first half scorers for Seattle, while Ruidíaz added his second in the 64′.

The Sounders collected the joint-fourth-most home points (37) in MLS this season with an 11-4-2 (WDL) record. They scored 34 goals while conceding 21 at CenturyLink Field.

Toronto Riding 15-Game Unbeaten Streak

TFC used a Decision Day victory to rip home-field away from DC United. That proved vitally important as they ran out as 5-1 winners over DC in round one of the playoffs. Though, the score was somewhat misleading with four coming in the first half of extra-time.

Many would have expected Toronto’s playoff run to come to an end soon after. Especially when considering they’ve yet to feature Altidore. TFC record more PPG and goals-per-game with the American in the lineup, yet have proved to have enough in their lineup to take down two of the league’s top sides during their playoff run.

TFC gave a strong account of themselves in New York in the conference semis, with plenty of chances and scoring first early in the second half. While NYC would draw level, Alejandro Pozuelo’s second goal of the game, a stoppage-time penalty, would send the Reds to the conference finals.

In Atlanta, Julian Gressel gave the Five Stripes the early lead, though Toronto were quick to level through Nicolas Benezet in the 14′. The teams would remain level until Nick DeLeon’s screamer in the 78′ gave TFC the 2-1 win.

Away from BMO Field, TFC earned points in 11 of 17 matches this season with a 4-7-6 record and 19 points. Only five teams collected more road points than the Reds in 2019. They were outscored 26-23 on their travels, however, only LAFC, NYCFC and DC finished the year with a positive goal-differential on the road.

With their win over Atlanta, Toronto has now extended its unbeaten run in MLS play to an incredible 15 games. No one will be more motivated to keep that streak running than Michael Bradley. The captain is due a $6.5 million bonus should he lead his side to MLS Cup glory.

Seattle vs Toronto Playoff Stats

Seattle
VS
Toronto
3-0-0 Record (W-D-L) 3-0-0
9 Goals For 9
4 Goals Against 3
55 Shots 41
25 Shots on Target 28
18 Corners 15
38.3% Avg. Possession 47%

Best Bet

We’ve already seen two close contests between these two in past MLS Cup Finals and we should be in for another come Sunday. While Seattle had the stronger season and looks on paper to have more game-breakers, Greg Vanney’s side has proven all playoffs they can go toe-to-toe with anyone. Though Seattle knocking off LAFC can’t be forgotten either.

With Altidore and Omar Gonzalez still questionable, it’s anyone’s guess how Vanney lines up his side as he’s known to trot out several different formations.

Statistically, both sides have been comparable during this playoff run. While both have scored nine goals, most of those, four with Seattle, and five for Toronto came in round one. For TFC, four came during a 13-minute period of extra-time.

You could look to a few defining moments of TFC’s playoff run that have allowed them to make it this far. There was a  poor rebound by DC’s Bill Hamid in round one, the inexplicable slide tackle from Ronald Matarrita awarding Toronto a game-winning penalty over NYCFC, or the Quenten Westberg penalty save of Josef Martínez that kept Toronto in the Atlanta game.

Will the bounces keep going their way in Seattle?

Their history in Seattle hasn’t been great. The Sounders have won 9/14 all-time regular season matches and Toronto have won just 2/8 times in Seattle during the regular season or playoffs.

The friendly confines of CenturyLink have also been well, extremely friendly to the Sounders. In their franchise history, they are 110-37-36, with a sparkling 14-2-3 playoff record at home.

Overall, home teams in the MLS Cup Final are also 5-2 since 2012.

I’ve been burned picking against TFC already this playoff, but I’ll still have to give the edge to Seattle.

Best Bets: Seattle to win and both teams to score (+260), Seattle over 1.5 goals (-120)

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