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Serie A Matchday 19 Odds & Picks: AC Milan vs Atalanta, Juventus vs Bologna & More

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Jan 22, 2021 · 6:09 AM PST

Serie A Matchday 19
AC Milan's Zlatan Ibrahimovic, left, is challenged by Torino's Gleison Bremer during the Italian Cup round of 16 soccer match between AC Milan and Torino at the San Siro stadium, in Milan, Italy, Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2021. (AP Photo/Antonio Calanni)
  • Serie A Matchday 19 kicks off with one match on Friday, January 22, followed by four matches on Saturday and five on Sunday
  • Atalanta is undefeated in nine Serie A matches, can they continue their run against the league leaders?
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Matchday 19 here

It’s the final round of the first half of the season as Serie A Matchday 19 kicks off this weekend. Benevento hosts Torino on Friday afternoon to get things started, with Torino welcoming a new manager in Davide Nicola. While the highlight match sees leaders AC Milan hosting Atalanta on Saturday.

Midweek, we saw four teams playing in the Coppa Italia. Spezia and Roma on Tuesday (4-2 Spezia win in extra-time) and Lazio and Parma on Thursday (2-1 win for Lazio). Spezia and Roma will meet up again this weekend, with another manager’s job possibly on the line in Paulo Fonseca for Roma, should the poor results continue.

A makeup game from Round 10 also saw Atalanta and Udinese play on Wednesday. which resulted in a 1-1 draw.

A few trends heading into the round see Crotone riding six-straight OVERs when betting 2.5 totals, while Cagliari has now lost five straight and is winless in 11.

Juventus and Napoli could also be facing some fatigue as they played out a hard-fought Italian Super Cup on Wednesday which ended 2-0 for Juve. Napoli had a glorious chance to draw level when the match was 1-0, however, Lorenzo Insigne sent a penalty wide of the net.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Matchday 19 schedule below.

Serie A Matchday 19 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Benevento vs Torino +180 +210 +160
Roma vs Spezia -300 +425 +700
AC Milan vs Atalanta +160 +290 +140
Udinese vs Inter Milan +450 +300 -175
Fiorentina vs Crotone -150 +300 +400
Juventus vs Bologna -275 +400 +600
Genoa vs Cagliari +125 +240 +210
Verona vs Napoli +375 +280 -143
Lazio vs Sassuolo -150 +300 +375
Parma vs Sampdoria +187 +230 +140

All odds taken Jan 21 at Bet365

AC Milan vs Atalanta

It’s a top-six matchup on Serie A Matchday 19 at 12:00 pm EST Saturday afternoon when first-place AC Milan hosts sixth-place Atalanta.

Leaders Milan, responded to their defeat with Juventus two rounds ago with back-to-back 2-0 wins over Torino and then Cagliari on Monday night. Monday’s win didn’t come without a cost though, as captain Alessio Romagnoli picked up a yellow card, and due to accumulation will miss out on this match on the weekend. Also, despite only coming on in the 68′ minute, Alexis Saelemaekers picked up two yellows in six minutes to receive his marching orders from the pitch and will also miss out.

This will cause headaches for manager Stefano Pioli who has already been dealing with several absences. After recovering from COVID-19 though, players like Rade Krunic, Theo Hernandez and Ante Rebic look to be in line for a return.

Milan did welcome back Zlatan Ibrahimovic on Monday and the Swede wasted little time in making his presence felt. Zlatan scored a penalty for Milan just seven minutes into the match, as well as Milan’s second goal in the 52′.

Atalanta had been flying of late with three-straight wins where they outscored their opponents by a combined 12-2 heading into last weekend’s match with Genoa. Try as they might, with an edge in possession (63-percent), attempts (15-6) and shots on target  (4-3), it was not to be on the night for La Dea and the match would end scoreless.

Still, Atalanta is undefeated in nine in the league now and should pose a threat to Milan. On Wednesday they played a makeup game against Udinese and though they fell behind early in the opening minute, they drew level late in the half to draw 1-1. They again dominated the stats: 57-percent possession, attempts 18-6 and shots on target 8-1.

Five of seven have seen both teams scoring in this matchup recently. Their last head-to-head saw the teams split the points in a 1-1 draw, while Atalanta were 5-0 winners at home in their other match last season.

If any match this weekend looks to have goals it surely is this one. Milan and Atalanta rank third and fourth respectively in expected goals (xG) at 37.2 and 35.5. They both also come out strong quickly in matches. Milan is +13 in goal-differential in the first half of matches, while Atalanta is +8. Milan has the best first-half record overall at 12-4-2 (WDL), while Atlanta is third at 9-5-4.

La Dea typically possesses much of the ball ranking fourth overall in average possession, while Milan ranks 11th. La Dea also lead Serie A in final third touches and touches in their opponent’s penalty area. Milan, while still strong in those categories, rank eight and fifth.

Atalanta failing to score against Genoa was probably more an anomaly versus a concern. A drew with Udinese doesn’t look great on paper, but they rotated their lineup looking ahead to this weekend.

Milan has scored in every single match this season while scoring multiple goals in 17/18. With Zlatan up top, he’ll cause problems for Atalanta’s defense all day, but a Milan lineup still missing some players will also be susceptible to conceding themselves. Therefore, I see both teams getting on the board in this one. If you want to take a shot on a high-scoring first-half of OVER 1.5 first-half goals you can find plus-money at +135.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-138)

Juventus vs Bologna

After three straight wins, including an impressive 3-1 win over leaders AC Milan, Juventus fell to the other Milan, Inter, last week in a 2-0 defeat. The loss leaves Juventus in fifth with 33 points, now seven behind second-place Inter and ten behind leaders AC Milan.

They’ll meet 12th-place side Bologna Sunday morning at 6:30 am EST, who are coming off a 1-0 home win to Verona last weekend. Bologna have only tasted defeat once in their past seven, however, have also only picked up all three points once as well. This, after a streak that saw them draw five matches in a row. With just one road win on the season, I Rossoblu will be in tough to continue their respectable form against the current title holders.

Juventus are historically strong off a loss. So Bologna should get their full attention as Andrea Pirlo looks to keep pace in the title race. And while they may be slightly fatigued from a mid-week Supercoppa Italiana, they’ll also be riding a high and know they can’t afford to let more points slip.

Bologna hasn’t beaten Juve since 2011. Since that time Juve is 15-3-0 against them in all competitions. That said, Juventus has only scored more than two goals in match four times in span, scoring three times in those four. Juventus has also won the past nine matches versus Bologna as well as the past eight on their home pitch.

Juventus looks like a clear choice for the win but are priced, as expected at very short odds. Given their tendency to be lower scorers these days and their history of lower scores against Bologna, you could back a Juventus win and UNDER five total goals in the match at -125 or a Juve win and UNDER four goals at +130 for better value.

Alternatively, you could also back a halftime-fulltime result for Juventus at +110. Juve has conceded just nine goals in the first half of matches this season, while Bologna has conceded 17, better than just four sides in that category.

Pick: Juventus Win & Under 5 Goals in Match (-125)

Parma vs Sampdoria

The weekend’s final match of Serie A Matchday 19 sees 19th-placed Parma hosting tenth-place Sampdoria at 2:45 pm EST.

Parma have struggled to score this season. They are the league’s lowest scorers with just 14 goals scored, four fewer than anyone else. They’ve brought back their coach from last season though in Roberto D’Aversa in hopes of turning things around this season. Parma wasn’t great last season either but still finished 11th in the table. They also scored 56 goals on the year, while allowing 57.

The defensive woes have continued this season, but the scoring has dropped off. They’ve scored only two goals in their past seven but one did come in their last match on the weekend, a 1-1 draw with Sassuolo. It was their first goal after being held scoreless in their previous three. Still though, their winless streak now sits at nine. Parma will be disappointed to have not picked up all three points, having lead 1-0 most of the way before conceding the game-tying penalty in the 95′ minute, which would be the final kick of the game.

Parma, obviously, don’t rank highly in most offensive categories. If Parma can improve their offense slightly under D’Aversa though, Gervinho could be in line to start finding the scoresheet. He ranks second in Serie A according to FBRef in carries into the penalty area with 31, only behind Napoli’s Hirving Lozano with 34. Gervinho has four goals on the season, despite owning an xG of 2.6.

Parma was in play midweek on Thursday in the Coppa Italia round of 16 against Lazio. Though Parma fell behind early, they were able to draw level before conceding late in the 90′ minute to fall to defeat.

Their most recent head-to-heads with Sampdoria last year saw Sampdoria win 3-2 in Parma back in July. Parma won 1-0 on the road in the first meeting last season.

Sampdoria is coming off last weekend’s 2-1 win at home over Udinese. It’s been a back and forth season for Samp at 7-2-9 (WDL). The consistent thing with Sampdoria matches all season though as been goals. They’re 15-3 to OVER 2.5 totals, the highest in Serie A.

The 2-1 result versus Udinese was their third-straight 2-1 result. On the whole of the season after 18 rounds, both teams have scored in 14/18 Sampdoria matches. While both teams have scored and the total has gone over 2.5 also in 13 matches. Sampdoria has also yet to keep a clean sheet on the road this season.

I see this trend continuing on Sunday with neither team playing well on defense, Sampdoria always able to score and Parma is looking for some improvement under D’Aversa. Given Parma’s lack of scoring this year, there is good value backing goals in this match. A Parma goal by Gervinho is also priced at +175 odds.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (+125)

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