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Serie A Matchday 21 Odds & Picks: Juventus vs Roma, AC Milan vs Crotone & More

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Feb 4, 2021 · 2:11 PM PST

Serie A Matchday 21
Juventus' Cristiano Ronaldo celebrates after scoring his side's second goal during the Italian Cup semi-final first leg soccer match between Inter Milan and Juventus at the San Siro stadium, in Milan, Italy, Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • Serie A Matchday 21 kicks off with Fiorentina hosting Inter Milan on Friday, February 5, followed by four matches on Saturday and five more on Sunday
  • Crotone has the worst first-half record in the league and has also conceded the most first-half goals
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Matchday 21 here

Serie A Matchday 21 kicks off this Friday with Inter Milan having a chance to take over top top in the table if they can collect all three points against Fiorentina. AC Milan will have every chance to keep pace at the top this weekend as they host 20th-place Crotone. Meanwhile, all eyes will be on Juventus hosting Roma at 12:00 pm EST Saturday afternoon as the top match of the weekend.

Elsewhere, Lazio will look to continue their six-match undefeated streak (five-straight wins), when they host Cagliari, while several others will look to put a halt to long winless streaks. One of those are Lazio’s opponents Cagliari, winless in 13, while Parma, winless in 11 and Torino, winless in five and one win in 14, are also looking to stop the rot.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Matchday 21 schedule below.

Serie A Matchday 21 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Fiorentina vs Inter Milan +500 +310 -182
Atalanta vs Torino -275 +425 +650
Sassuolo vs Spezia -134 +280 +350
Juventus vs Roma -138 +320 +333
Genoa vs Napoli +450 +280 -154
Benevento vs Sampdoria +190 +220 +150
AC Milan vs Crotone -450 +550 +1200
Udinese vs Verona +130 +210 +230
Parma vs Bologna +220 +230 +130
Lazio vs Cagliari -275 +400 +700

All odds taken Feb 4 at Bet365

Juventus vs Roma Prediction

The clear top match of the weekend sees fourth-place Juventus hosting third-place Roma at 12:00 pm EST Saturday afternoon in Serie A Matchday 21.

Juventus fell to Inter three rounds ago, but since, have claimed back-to-back 2-0 victories over Bologna and Sampdoria in the league. On Tuesday, they were also in action in the leg one of the Coppa Italia Semifinals against Inter Milan again. All the goals in the match came in the first half, and Cristiano Ronaldo’s first-half brace was enough to pace the Old Lady to a 2-1 win.

Roma will be the most rested side, having already been eliminated from the cup competition. Last weekend they were 3-1 winners at home over Verona, and also defeated Spezia 4-3 in their previous match.

Earlier this season the teams drew 2-2 in Rome. They met three times last season, two in the league, with both teams winning on the road— Juve 2-1 and Roma 3-1, plus a 3-1 win for Juve in the Coppa Italia.

When looking at Roma matches you have to immediately consider a play on the OVER and or goals markets. Paulo Fonseca’s side is currently 16-4 to OVER 2.5 totals. Only two other teams have cashed 15 OVERs. Overall their matches have the highest goals per game at 3.9. Neither of those stats change when they take to the road. Roma is 8-1 to the OVER on the road and the goals per game in their matches sit at 4.0. That’s an average of 0.5 more than any of the next closest teams. Three teams (Crotone, Atalanta and Sassuolo) average 3.5 goals-per-game in their road matches.

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Juve’s matches are much lower scoring. Overall, they are 10-9 to the OVER (3.0 goals per match) and at home they are just 5-4 to OVERs and 2.9 goals per match.

It seems inevitable that Roma will concede in this match. After 20 rounds, they’ve kept just five clean sheets (not counting a Week 1 draw which turned into a defaulted loss), and four of those came at home. They kept one road clean sheet away to Udinese way back on October 3. In fact, across all competitions, in their past six, they’ve allowed 13 goals. But, they’ve also scored 12 goals during that time as well. There is a chance Eden Dzeko could return for this match, however, Lorenzo Pellegrini is serving a suspension.

Every game against top competition this season has also resulted in high-scoring results for Roma. This has included scorelines such as: 2-2 Juventus, 3-3 Milan, 4-0 loss Napoli, 4-1 loss Atalanta, and 2-2 Inter.

Meanwhile, while Juve’s defense has been tighter of late, they had conceded in 9/10 previous league matches prior to their past two clean sheets.

Juve could suffer some fatigue from a mid-week cup tie, and Roma should have enough to breach their defense, leading us to see goals from both sides and an exciting match.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-120)

AC Milan vs Crotone Prediction

It’s first versus last on Serie A Matchday 21 at 9:00 am EST Sunday morning when Milan hosts Crotone.

Depending on Inter Milan’s result on Friday against Fiorentina, AC could actually find themselves in second by the time this one kicks off. Either way, they’ll want to maintain their lead over the chasing pack or re-take their position when they face newly-promoted Crotone.

While Milan has flourished this season, the Pythagoreans have struggled mightily with a 3-3-14 (WDL) record, scoring just 22 goals and conceding 46. Away from home they are winless at 0-2-8, scoring nine times and allowing 26.

Crotone is coming off a 2-1 loss to Fiorentina last weekend, their fourth-straight. They’ve lost 2-1, 2-1, 6-2 and 3-1 in that stretch.

Giovanni Stroppa’s side often find themselves in a hole early, which will be tough to dig out of against the leaders. Crotone  has the worst first-half record in the league according to Soccer Stats at 2-5-13. They’ve also conceded the most first-half goals by a ridiculous amount. Crotone has allowed 28 goals in the opening 45 minutes, while no other team has allowed more than 19. In the 13 matches where Crotone has been trailing at half-time, they’ve gone on to lose them all.

In contrast, AC Milan have just two losses this season. They were 2-1 winners over Bologna on the road last week, their third win in four matches. They excel in the first half with the league’s best record at 13-4-3. They’ve scored the second-most first-half goals (21) and of the 13 times they’ve been leading at the half, they have a perfect 13-0 record.

In short, Milan is likely to score early in this one, and if they do, they’ll likely coast to the finish line. They could easily score three goals (-110), but I’m betting them on the half-time/full-time market to be leading at half and at the end of regulation.

Pick: AC Milan Half-time/Full-time (-138)

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Parma vs Bologna Prediction

At 12:00 pm EST Sunday afternoon, 19th-place Parma hosts 15th-place Bologna on Serie A Matchday 21.

Bologna snapped a long streak of consecutive matches of conceding a goal earlier this year. However, they’ve still conceded in all but three matches this season. And also in nine of their past 11. In four of the past five they’ve conceded twice. Their most recent results were respectable 2-0 and 2-1 defeats to Juventus and AC Milan respectively.

Bologna are average goalscorers in their own right, having tallied 25 goals in their 20 matches. Against a Parma defense which has shipped 38 goals in 20 matches, they should have every chance of finding the back of the net.

That brings us to Parma. They are the league’s lowest scorers with just 14 strikes thus far. Depite bringing back ex-manager Roberto D’Aversa, Parma have still yet to win in the four matches since his return. The results haven’t been all bad though; 2-0 defeats to Lazio, Sampdoria and Napoli are at least respectable. They’ve also drawn 1-1 with Sassuolo over the past month,

Still, they have just two wins on the season and none in their past 11. They’ve also scored just once in their past six which is an especially glaring stat.

As far as recent history, Bologna won this season’s earlier matchup at home 4-1. Last season, each match ended 2-2. And the year prior, the teams drew 0-0 in Parma and Bologna won 4-1 at home.

I see this one as a match Parma will have circled as as chance to pick up points and possibly all three. While their recent form makes it hard to back them to take the full points, I do think they’ll be able to find the back of the net. However, this one could be tight and the UNDER or a draw could be in play.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-125), Draw (+230)

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