Serie A Matchday 22 Odds & Picks: Napoli vs Juventus, Inter Milan vs Lazio & More

• Serie A Matchday 22 kicks off on Friday, February 12, 2021
• Both teams have scored in each of Sassuolo’s past ten matches
• Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Matchday 22 here

Serie A Matchday 22 kicks off on Friday with Bologna hosting Benevento. The weekend offers eight more matches, including two inside the top six and concludes with Verona hosting Parma on Monday afternoon.

With wins last round the form guide places Lazio (15 points), Genoa (13) and Milan and Juventus (12) as the hottest teams in the past five rounds. While both Parma and Cagliari (one point), Benevento and Sassuolo (two) and Crotone (three) are currently slumping in that stretch.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Matchday 22 schedule below.

Serie A Matchday 22 Odds

All odds taken Feb 11 at Bet365

Napoli vs Juventus Prediction

Despite being in the second half of the season, these teams haven’t actually played yet in Serie A this campaign. Earlier this year, health officials blocked Napoli from traveling to face Juventus after a breakout of positive COVID-19 tests in the club. Napoli was given a defaulted 0-3 result and docked one point in the standings. Even though they knew Napoli would not be arriving, Juventus still openly prepared and promoted the fact that they would be showing up.

Since that time, those decisions have been overturned and the game will be made up later this season.

Napoli have won their appeal against the decision of their game vs Juventus back in October being decided into 3 points for Juventus, and -1 for Napoli. Both of these decisions have been overturned.

The game will now still be played. pic.twitter.com/Izdsb4RpDG

— 𝐀𝐅𝐂 𝐀𝐉𝐀𝐗 💎 (@TheEuropeanLad) December 22, 2020

Napoli are currently sixth in the table with 37 points, while Juventus are third with 42, so when the two meet at 12:00 pm EST Saturday afternoon there will be plenty on the line.

Though they haven’t played yet in the league, the teams did meet as recently as January 21 in the Super Cup where Juve were 2-0 winners. Last year’s Coppa Italia Final between these teams ended with Napoli winning in penalties after a 0-0 draw in regulation. Past league matches though have offered up plenty of excitement with no fewer than three goals being scored, and both teams scoring in the past four.

But goals have been hard to come by for opponents against Juve of late. Across all competitions, their past seven matches have seen them keep clean sheets in six, only allowing one goal in that time—a 2-1 win over Inter. That streak has seen them go 6-1-0 (WDL). On the season as a whole, Juve have also been the stingiest defensively, conceding just 18 goals in 20 matches, and owning an xGA of 19.0 according to FBRef, both league-bests.

Both of these teams played in midweek with Juventus drawing 0-0 with Inter Milan in the second leg of the Coppa Italia semifinals on Tuesday. After a 2-1 win in leg one, Juve have advanced to the final.

Napoli, meanwhile, fell 3-1 to Atalanta on Wednesday in leg two, and after a 0-0 leg one draw have been eliminated. Across all comps, Gennaro Gattuso’s Napoli have just two wins in seven—one in the league and one in the cup. Those have come against Spezia and Parma—hardly some of Italy’s heavy-hitters.

21 Matchdays in, here's the official #SerieATIM League Table! ↗️ ↘️#WeAreCalcio pic.twitter.com/WtiDkervb4

— Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) February 7, 2021

This is a big revenge spot for Napoli and Gattuso’s job may very well be on the line if results don’t go their way. But their form right now just leaves much to be desired. Take out four goals against Spezia in the cup and Napoli have scored just five goals in their six other matches during their past seven.

No one is scoring on Juve lately. I give them the advantage in the outright winners market, but also predict a lower scoring affair.

Pick: Juventus Win (+100), Under 2.5 Goals (-110)

Crotone Sassuolo Prediction

At 12:00 pm EST on Sunday afternoon, bottom side Crotone hosts eight-place Sassuolo on Serie A Matchday 22.

Crotone come into this one off the back of three-straight losses, most recently being last week’s 4-0 road defeat in Milan. That followed losses of 3-0 to Genoa and 2-1 to Fiorentina.

Heavy defeats are nothing new for Crotone as they’ve scored just 22 goals while conceding 50 in 21 games. In 14 of those 21 matches the Pitagorici have conceded multiple goals. That includes an earlier season 4-1 defeat to Sassuolo back in October. In fact, multiple goals have seen the back of Crotone’s net in six of their past seven matches, only holding fellow promoted side Benevento to a single goal in that stretch. Considering Crotone’s xGA is only 37, they have actually performed even poorer in the goals against category than their advanced numbers would suggest. Their -18.2 xG Differential is the worst in the league.

All this to say, they’ll likely have a tough time keeping things tight on Sunday against a Sassuolo side ranked eighth in both goals scored (34) and xG (28.3).

While the Neroverdi haven’t performed great of late, only collecting nine points in their past ten matches, and two points in their past five, this could be the time for their offense to break out. They’ll also be aided by the possibility that Domenico Berardi could return to the starting line up after making a brief return after injury last week.

Despite being winless in five after last week’s 2-1 loss to Spezia, Sassuolo have scored in each of their past 11 matches. They are though, starting to look a lot like last year’s version of the squad which would constantly score and also concede in most games. In their past ten matches both teams have scored every time.

Pick: Sassuolo to Score Over 1.5 Goals (-125)

Inter Milan vs Lazio Prediction

Serie A Matchday 22 serves up another matchup at the top of the table when second-place Inter Milan hosts fifth-place Lazio at 2:45 pm EST Saturday afternoon.

As mentioned earlier, Lazio are the form side in Serie A right now with the most points collected (15) in the past five rounds. They’re tied with Inter for the most points collected (23) in the past ten as well.

With their 1-0 win over Cagliari last weekend, Lazio are now undefeated in seven, winning each of their past six. They’ve conceded just three goals in their current winning streak

.@ciroimmobile & goals: a long love-story. 🔛#SerieATIM #WeAreCalcio pic.twitter.com/2SkzuL71ul

— Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) February 11, 2021

For Inter, they enter this match off a dissapointing exit in the Coppa Italia semifinals in midweek. On Tuesday, they drew 0-0 with Juventus, and after losing in leg one, were eliminated.

In the league though, they have been a consistant title challenger all season. Antonio Conte’s side are undefeated in five Serie A Matches and have lost just once in their past 17. Their defense has been airtight as well, keeping four-straight clean sheets.

Both teams have conceded only twice in their past five matches and I expect this to be a tight match. With the offensive talent on display, both teams scoring (-150) seems possible, though scoring has come at a premium when these teams have met recently.

Earlier this season the teams drew 1-1, while last season Lazio won 2-1 and Inter won 1-0, both home wins.

The value here has to be on Lazio. I wouldn’t turn anyone off a Lazio outright win as the more rested team (+350) but there are some other safer ways to bet Lazio as well. The Lazio ‘Draw No Bet’ option at +225 or ‘Double Chance” option for a win or draw at +100 will also offer a little extra insurance.

Pick: Lazio Double Chance (+100)