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Serie A Matchday 27 Odds & Picks: AC Milan vs Napoli, Parma vs Roma & More

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Mar 11, 2021 · 3:23 PM PST

AC Milan's Rafael Leao controls the ball during a Serie A soccer match
AC Milan's Rafael Leao controls the ball during a Serie A soccer match between AC Milan and Parma, at the San Siro stadium in Milan, Italy, Wednesday, July 15, 2020. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • Serie A Matchday 27 kicks off on Friday, March 12, with Lazio hosting Crotone and Atalanta hosting Spezia
  • Parma is 0-7-10 in their past 17 league matches
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Matchday 27 here

Italy’s Serie A Matchday 27 will kick off on Friday with two matches, followed by eight more on Saturday and Sunday, while concluding with the match of the weekend between AC Milan vs Napoli on Sunday afternoon.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Matchday 27 schedule below.

Serie A Matchday 27 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Lazio vs Crotone -350 +475 +900
Atalanta vs Spezia -400 +525 +1000
Sassuolo vs Verona +137 +225 +210
Benevento vs Fiorentina +250 +220 +120
Genoa vs Udinese +220 +200 +145
Bologna vs Sampdoria +125 +240 +220
Parma vs Roma +450 +275 -154
Torino vs Inter Milan +700 +400 -275
Cagliari vs Juventus +500 +300 -182
AC Milan Napoli +155 +230 +180

All odds taken Mar 11 at Bet365

Bologna vs Sampdoria Prediction

These teams are only separated by four points in the table ahead of Serie A Matchday 27. The 12th place Bologna (28 points), will host tenth place Sampdoria (32 points) at 7:30 am EST Sunday morning.

Sitting around mid-table, it’s no wonder Bologna’s form has been very hit and miss. In 2021, they are a mediocre 3-4-5 (WDL). In their past six they are 2-2-2, though both of those losses have come in their most recent matches, a 1-0 loss to a struggling Cagliari and a 3-1 loss to Napoli last week. Bologna has scored in six of seven matches, but have also conceded in five of seven.

Sampdoria also failed to pick up all three points against Cagliari, drawing the Cagliari 2-2 last week. They also drew their match prior, 1-1 with Genoa. Claudio Ranieri’s Sampdoria are now winless in four and have just a single win in their past seven.

Bologna were 2-1 winners earlier this season when these sides met, their fourth-straight win over Sampdoria. Those scorelines have read: 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, and 3-0. Historically, this matchup usually produces goals. That doesn’t mean the trend will continue, but it’s still interesting to note that of their past 13 meetings, three or more goals have been scored on ten occasions, while 13/19 have seen both teams scoring.

Only four teams have played to more OVERs than Sampdoria who are 17-9 to OVER 2.5 totals. While Bologna are an even 13-13.

Sampdoria is allowing well over a goal-per-game on their travels this term, having conceded 18 goals in 13 road matches. Only once in those 13 have they kept a clean sheet and that 2-0 win came against goal-starved Parma. Only once in their past six road dates has a scoreline exceeded two goals though. Bologna meanwhile, have scored in each of their past eight home dates in Serie A, as well as in 11/12.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-150)

Parma vs Roma Prediction

At 10:00 am EST on Sunday morning, 19th place Parma will host fourth-placed AS Roma on Serie A Matchday 27.

It’s been a long time since Parma has collected three points in a match. November 30, a 2-1 win away to Genoa to be exact. Since that time, they are 0-7-10 (WDL). Parma has at least shown some signs of life in their recent matches with three draws in their past four. They’ve scored multiple goals in each of those draws and have now scored in five-straight matches, for a total of nine goals in those five. That’s a far cry from the two goals they scored in their ten previous matches.

Last week they were involved in a wild 3-3 draw with Fiorentina. The match saw three first-half goals, what looked like a winning goal for Parma in the 90′ minute, and then an own goal in the 94′ minute to give Fiorentina a share of the points. Parma coach Roberto D’Aversa was also shown a red card in the 93′ minute, meaning he’ll miss this match.

The goals have been coming from all over lately for Parma with Juraj Kucka scoring three (all penalties), Hernani scoring twice, plus Andreas Cornelius, Jasmin Kurtic, Yann Karamoh and Valentin Mihaila all scoring once in that span.

Currently, in the Champions League places, Roma have had a strong season. At least on paper. The only team currently ranked inside the top eight which they’ve beaten so far is Hellas Verona, who is, eighth. They’re winless against everyone ranked higher. Predictably they lost 2-1 to AC Milan in round 24, before defeating lesser competition in Fiorentina (2-1) and Genoa (1-0) in the next two rounds.

On Thursday Roma played in the Europa League where they defeated Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 at home in the round of 16 leg one action.

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Luckily, Parma are not a top team, and thus, Roma should have the first chance to win this one. This is the sort of opponent Roma has feasted on this season. Earlier in the campaign, Roma were 3-0 winners at home over Parma. However, Roma have kept just a single clean sheet in their past ten road matches and that came against Benevento. A Roma win (-154), or Roma to score two-plus goals (-163) offers similar odds. If you combine those two results you can get improved odds of -105.

I do think Parma will find the scoresheet in this one though. Both teams scoring is listed at -150, while both scoring and OVER 2.5 goals pays out at +105.

The best value in this one though may be to back a Roma win, with both teams scoring at +220.

Pick: Roma to Win & Both Teams to Score (+220)

AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction

The game of the round on Serie A Matchday 27 is the final one of the weekend which sees second-place AC Milan hosting sixth place Napoli at 2:45 pm EST Sunday afternoon. Earlier this season Milan won 3-1 in Naples. While last season the teams split the points on both occasions, 1-1 in Milan and 2-2 in Naples.

After back-to-back losses in the league have seen Milan’s title hopes slowly look to be slipping away, they have responded with three-straight without defeat. Last weekend they won 2-0 on the road to Verona. This match is sandwiched between two huge tilts with Manchester United in the Europa League. On Thursday in the round of 16 leg one, they scored a late equalizer to leave Old Trafford with a 1-1 draw.

Lately, it’s been open season on the Milan defense, as they’ve kept a clean sheet in just two of their past eight Serie A matches. If you include all competitions (Coppa Italia and the Europa League), they’ve now allowed a goal in 10/12 recent matches.

Napoli are similarly undefeated in three after their 3-1 win over Bologna last week.

Meanwhile, for Napoli, their home-road dichotomy is very clear. At home, they have the fourth-best record at 9-1-3 (WDL) and have scored 33 goals compared to only allowing 11. In their past five at home, they are 5-0-0 and have outscored opponents  14-1. But on the road, Napoli is just 6-1-5 and have scored 22, while allowing 18.

They’re winless in their past four road dates while being outscored 12-7. They’ve also conceded in eight-straight away from home, but will usually contribute to the scoresheet themselves. Each of their past six on the road have seen both teams scoring and at least three goals being scored. In fact, the average number of goals scored in their past six road matches is 4.5.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (+110)

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