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Serie A Matchday 37 Odds & Picks: Inter Milan vs Napoli, Lazio vs Brescia & More

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Mar 10, 2021 · 10:11 AM PST

Serie A Matchday 18 features Lazio's Ciro Immobile
Lazio's Ciro Immobile, second left, celebrates with teammate Luis Alberto after scoring his side's second goal during the Serie A soccer match between Lazio and Fiorentina at the Olympic Stadium in Rome, Italy, Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2021. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini)
  • Serie A’s Matchday 37 kicks off on Tuesday with matches over Tuesday and Wednesday
  • Lazio Ciro Immobile is fresh off a hat-trick and looks poised to win the goalscoring race
  • Read on for the full Matchday 37 odds as well as our best bets for the week

Two matchdays now remain in Serie A and this time next week the season will be wrapped up after the midweek slate of matches and next weekend’s final round.

Round 36 saw Juventus officially capture the title after their 2-0 win over Sampdoria and Lazio’s Ciro Immobile jump out to a three-goal lead over Ronaldo in the race to be Serie A’s top scorer.

Roma has stretched their lead over AC Milan to four points for automatic Europa League qualification, while Lecce’s hopes of avoiding relegation are hanging by a thread.

For the second week in a row, goal-scoring was down to just 29 combined goals in the round for back-to-back weeks, but that’s still an average of 2.9 per game. OVER/UNDERs broke even on 2.5 totals at 5-5, the lowest amount of OVERs since the first full week of matches back in Round 27.

With final positions in the table, goalscoring records and relegation on the line as the season winds down, we look at our top picks from Round 37 here.

Serie A Matchday 37 Odds

Team Moneyline Odds at Bet365
Parma +650
Atalanta -300
Draw +475
Team Moneyline
Inter Milan +100
Napoli +240
Draw +280
Team Moneyline
Lazio -600
Brescia +1400
Draw +650
Team Moneyline
Sampdoria +400
AC Milan -163
Draw +300
Team Moneyline
Sassuolo +135
Genoa +200
Draw +240
Team Moneyline
Udinese +125
Lecce +190
Draw +270
Team Moneyline
Verona -188
SPAL +475
Draw +320
Team Moneyline
Cagliari +500
Juventus -188
Draw +320
Team Moneyline
Fiorentina +100
Bologna +260
Draw +260
Team Moneyline
Torino +400
Roma +300
Draw -163

All odds taken July 27. For more betting options visit Bet365

Pick 1: Inter Milan vs Napoli

With Juventus clinching the title on Sunday, some of the lustre is taken off this one when Inter hosts Napoli at 3:45 pm EST Tuesday afternoon.

Inter are second and had an outside chance at chasing down Juve prior to the weekend results. For Napoli’s part, while they are currently technically outside of the top six and European placings, they already have the Europa League guaranteed due to winning the Coppa Italia. So it’s a matter of how much does Inter want to finish as runners up, as well as how badly due Napoli wish to finish strong ahead of their Champions League match against Barcelona. I think both will be motivated, though the need for airtight defending may not be required.

Inter have been in superb form of late, now undefeated in six at 3-3-0 after Saturday’s 3-0 win over Genoa. Their defense has tightened as well with three clean sheets in their past four, though keeping teams like Genoa, Fiorentina and SPAL off the scoresheet is not the highest of accomplishments. The lone match in that stretch where they didn’t, came against AC Milan, a 2-2 draw.

And that’s been an issue for Inter this season—keeping clean sheets against the league’s top sides. Against teams currently ranked in the top seven, Inter have a record of 5-2-3, which is strong, but they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in any match against those sides in 2020, a stretch of six games.

If you look at Napoli’s recent result, a 2-0 win, keeping the dynamic attack of Sassuolo off the scoresheet this weekend, it looks impressive. But if you watched it, Napoli did start strong and scored early in the 8th minute. They also scored late in the 93rd. But in between were waves of Sassuolo attacks and four goals. Well, nearly. All four Sassuolo goals were called back for offside, some as late and as close as once both teams had already lined up and were about ready to kick things back off. Meaning they weren’t blatant offsides and the Neroverdi, deserved to have left the game with at least a point and maybe even a win.

These teams have met three times already in 2020 and once just last month. The past two meetings came in the Coppa Italia, where Napoli won 1-0 in February and the teams drew 1-1 when the tournament picked back up in June. In January, when they met in Serie A play, it was a 3-1 Inter win, however, Napoli were 4-1 winners in their last match last season.

This looks to be an exciting match which will likely feature goals coming from both sides.

Pick: BTTS & Over 2.5 goals (-105)

Pick 2: Lazio vs Brescia

For a few weeks Lazio was a strong team to fade. Despite being right in the thick of the title hunt, they folded the past few rounds and couldn’t keep up in the condensed schedule. But now, after two-straight wins over Cagliari (2-1) and Verona (5-1), they’ve kept themselves alive in the race for second. And more importantly, at least for star striker Ciro Immobile, alive in the race for the league’s top scorer.

Immobile scored a hat-trick in Lazio’s win over Verona on Sunday and will have every opportunity to add to his league-leading tally of 34 goals when Lazio hosts Brescia at 1:30 pm EST on Wednesday.

Brescia are 19th, are headed to Serie B and have won just twice in their ten games since restarting. They have one win in their past six and that came to SPAL. Otherwise, they’ve lost 3-1, 3-0, 6-2, 3-1 and 2-1 in that stretch.

It was just 2-1 when Lazio defeated Brescia earlier this year, but they’ll have every motivation to pile on some goals this week for Immobile.

At 34 goals, Immobile not only leads Ronaldo (31) for the leading scoring honor in Serie A, but he is just two away from tying and three away from eclipsing the all-time record for goals in a Serie A season. That record is held by Gonzalo Higuain who scored 36 in the 2015/16 season.

Lazio are huge favorites in this one so finding the value is tough but can be done. Using the bet builder option, you can bet a Lazio win, where they score at least three goals and Immobile to be one of those scorers at -120 odds.

Pick: Lazio to win, Lazio to score Over 2.5 goals and Immobile to be anytime goalscorer (-120)

Pick 3: Udinese vs Lecce

This looks like an ugly one at 1:30 pm EST Wednesday afternoon, but it could turn out to offer some intrigue.

Udinese have secured their place in Serie A for next season after back-to-back wins, 2-1 over Juventus and 1-0 over Cagliari. With 42 points they are well clear of the final relegation spot, currently held by their Wednesday opponents Lecce who have 32 points.

Lecce are four points back of 17th-placed Genoa and with just two matches left know they need all three points if they have any chance of survival. With Genoa on the road to Sassuolo at the same time, there’s every chance that with a win, Lecce could find themselves just one point from safety on the final matchday.

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Make no mistake about it, Lecce are not good. They’ve allowed an astonishing 80 goals on the season, four more than Brescia and nine more than SPAL, the two teams’s below them. However, they have scored 47 goals, which far surpasses both of those teams and is also more than six other teams who are above them in the table—that includes Udinese who have scored just 35 goals.

Overall Lecce’s matches are tied for the second-highest goals per game this season at 3.5, tied with Sassuolo and only behind Atalanta. OVER 2.5 goal totals have now gone 27-9 with Lecce and OVER 3.5 is 20-16, after their 3-2 weekend loss to Bologna.

Since the restart, OVER 2.5 totals have gone 9-1 in Lecce matches, the lone outlier being a 0-0 draw with Cagliari. That’s the only clean sheet they’ve kept during that time and also one of only two games in that stretch where they failed to score.

Over the entire season, Lecce have kept just three clean sheets in 36 games. Three. No matter how bad Udinese’s offense is, they should be confident of scoring against Lecce, especially riding the confidence of two recent wins and the strong play of forward Kevin Lasagne who’s scored six goals in the nine games he’s played since the restart. Udinese as a whole, have played ten games since restarting and have contributed to the scoresheet in eight of those matches.

Lecce need the win and are capable of scoring, but in pursuit of that result, their leaky backline will become exposed, resulting in a few goals in this one. Back OVER 2.5 goals at -150 or for better value, the OVER and goals from both sides.

Pick: BTTS & OVER 2.5 goals (-110)

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