Upcoming Match-ups

Serie A to Return this Weekend with Juventus Heavy -250 Favorites to Win Title

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Mar 16, 2021 · 8:24 AM PDT

Swansea vs Middlesborough
The ball is seen during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Manchester City at Old Trafford Stadium, Manchester, England, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2015. (AP Photo/Jon Super)
  • Soccer in Italy resumed last week with the Coppa Italia semifinals, with Serie A set to return this Saturday
  • The league resumes with Juventus leading the title race with 63 points ahead of second-place Lazio with 62
  • Read on for an update on Serie A’s title, top four and relegation odds ahead of the restart

The European country hit the earliest and hardest by the coronavirus and who shut down the league after their last match on March 9, is now set to return this weekend. In fact, things looked so dire in Italy, odds were once released on Serie A, in particular, being able to conclude their campaign.

When we last left Italy’s top-flight league, Juventus led the league with 63 points. As we get ready to resume the race to win the Scudetto, Juventus have Serie A odds of -250, followed closely behind though are Lazio with 62 points and enticing title odds of +250.

Read on for the current state of the league when it comes to the title, top four and relegation races.

Serie A Odds

Team Top 4 Odds Odds to Win
Juventus N/A -250
Lazio N/A +250
Inter Milan N/A +1400
Atalanta -600 +10000
AS Roma +350 +50000
Napoli +2500 +250000
AC Milan +10000 +300000
Verona +25000 +450000
Parma +75000 +450000
Bologna +100000 +450000
Cagliari +150000 +450000
Fiorentina N/A +450000

Odds taken June 17

Scudetto to Come Down to the Wire

As we prepare to return to play in Italy, it looks like the Serie A title will only be a two-horse race between Juventus and Lazio, separated by just one point. Though we do still have quite a bit of time left in the season with most teams still having 12 matches remaining, while some have 13. One of those teams with 13 remaining is Inter Milan who is a distant eight points back of second-place Lazio, though not technically out of it by any means.

Inter didn’t enter the break in the best of forms with a 2-0 defeat to Juventus in the league and losses in two of three overall competitions. The other two losses came to Lazio in the league and Napoli in the Coppa Italia, showing they’ve shown struggles against other top sides.

 

Last week Inter got back on the pitch early against Napoli in the leg two of their semifinal Coppa Italia tie and could only muster a 0-0 draw. After losing the first leg 1-0, they were eliminated from the semifinals.

We’ve seen home-field mean very little in the Bundesliga, but for what it’s worth, Inter will play each of their first two league matches at home, plus four of five and five of six.

When it comes to the top two, Juventus has not looked great since returning to play in the Coppa Italia. They drew 0-0 with Milan in their Coppa Italia semifinal leg two match despite playing most of the match up a man. This was enough to send them to the finals after drawing 1-1 on the road in leg one. However, on Wednesday, they faced Napoli in the finals and were again kept off the scoresheet, drawing 0-0 after 90 minutes and eventually losing on penalties.

 

Juve has a chance to begin the Serie A restart strong, playing no teams ranked higher than tenth-place Bologna in their first four matches. While Lazio will start off with a tough test against fourth-place Atalanta.

The key match on the fixture list will come on July 20 when Juve hosts Lazio in a match which could go a long way in deciding the title. Lazio have held the advantage against the Italian giants of late, having already defeated them 3-1 twice this season—once in the league and also in the Super Cup.

If you haven’t already bet Juventus to win the title earlier this season, then right now I think the value clearly lies with Simone Inzaghi’s Lazio.

Serie A Top 4 Race

The next most important race is the top four to decide Champions League places. We’ll assume Juve and Lazio are in. Inter, nine points ahead of fifth-placed Roma, along with a game in hand on most sides are likely also assured of their spot.

That leaves the current fourth-place team Atalanta with 48 points who hold a three-point lead and a game in hand over Roma in fifth with 45 points. Napoli and AC Milan with 39 and 36 points respectively are also in the running. Of those top seven teams, all have played 26 matches except for Inter and Atalanta who have a game in hand having only played 25.

Atalanta are the league’s top scorers with 70 goals, have the current lead in fourth and have a game in hand so are deservedly favored to maintain their position. However, of their final 13 matches, eight are against teams currently in the top half of the table. Only Napoli shares that many top 10 opponents to close out the season among the top six sides.

Atalanta also finishes the year against five-straight top five teams, with six of their last seven coming against top-ranked sides as well.

But it really could be anyone’s game as Napoli as previously stated will face plenty of top-tier opponents, while finishing the season against both Inter and Lazio. They will be full of confidence though after their Coppa Italia title win, so a small play at 25-1 odds could be an interesting longshot play. The door may be open for Roma who only faces six top ten sides. They’ll finish their year against SPAL (19th), Fiorentina (13th) and Torino (15th), which gives them plenty of chances to pick up points late. But, they will conclude the season against Juventus.

In short, none of these top sides can easily circle three points on their calendar over the final weeks.

 

Relegation Candidates

Two of the three relegation spots in the league are likely settled. Both Brescia (16 points/20th) and Spal (18 points/19th) are likely too far out of 17th-placed Genoa (25 points) for the final spot in safety. Brescia has also faced some turmoil during the stoppage reportedly releasing mercurial striker Mario Balotelli.

While Lecce who also has 25 points and rank 18th are still very much alive to avoid the drop. Lecce were pounded 7-2 and 4-0 in their final two matches but had won three-straight prior to that including a huge 3-2 upset over Napoli.

With 12 matches remaining though there is still plenty of time for any of the three to get on a roll and make up ground.

Relegation Odds

Team Relegation Odds
Brescia -2000
SPAL -1400
Lecce -190
Genoa +350
Sampdoria +500
Udinese +600
Torino +800
Sassuolo +3300
Fiorentina +6600
Cagliari +10000
Parma +12500
Bologna +15000
Verona +50000
AC Milan +100000

Even 13th-placed Fiorentina are sitting on 30 points and five above the dropzone. Udinese (28), Torino (27) and Sampdoria (26) all need to string together some wins to avoid falling into the relegation zone themselves.

In fact, the best value may be on either Torino (8-1) or Udinese (6-1) considering Torino has lost six straight in the league and Udinese were winless in seven prior to the stoppage. Udinese’s 21 goals are only one better than SPAL’s 20, while Torino’s 28 is better than only three teams in the division. The Toros’ defense has also been dreadful allowing the fourth-most goals with 45.  The form guide shows Torino with the third-worst record over the past ten rounds.

Udinese and Torino will resume league play against each other in the first full round of fixtures next week, so someone or both will drop points. For Udinese, they’ll then play Atalanta and Roma which should both be losses. Torino kicks off against Parma this weekend and also have matches against Lazio and Juve in their next five, so the outlook is grim going forward.

A good value bet could be to bet both sides for relegation before the odds potentially shorten and hope the poor form continues for at least one of them.

Author Image