Serie A Round 13 Odds & Predictions

• Serie A Round 13 brings three matches on Saturday followed by seven on Sunday after a busy midweek schedule
• AS Roma have just a single defeat in their past 11 Serie A matches
• Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Round 13 here

After this week’s midweek action saw seven of ten matches end in a draw, there’s a quick turnaround to Serie A Round 13 which kicks off on Saturday, December 19, 2020.

It was a low-scoring midweek round which saw only 22 goals scored, seven draws and just two home wins. Home teams haven’t won more than three matches in a round since way back in Round 3.

With Inter defeating Napoli and AC Milan only being able to grab a draw away to Genoa, the gap between the two at the summit is now just a single point. With the draw, AC Milan is still undefeated, one of just two sides able to say that. The other being Juventus who drew Atalanta midweek 1-1.

The weekend offers plenty of mouthwatering clashes, especially on Sunday. Starting at 9:00 am EST, Sassuolo will host AC Milan, followed by Atalanta home to Roma (12:00 pm EST) and then Lazio home to Napoli (2:45 pm EST).

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Round 13 schedule below.

Serie A Round 13 Odds

All odds taken Dec 18 at Bet365

Torino vs Bologna

Before all of the aforementioned matches, is Torino, 19th, hosting Bologna, 13th, at 6:30 am EST Saturday morning.

Torino was in Rome on Thursday as the last match of Round 12, and playing early on Saturday could leave them fatigued for Serie A Round 13. Even more so when you consider they played much of Thursday’s match with only ten men. This, after Wilfried Singo, received his second yellow just 14 minutes into the match. Unsurprisingly, Torino struggled thereafter and was down 2-0 at the half. Roma would add a third in the 68′ minute before Andrea Belotti knocked in a consolation goal in the 73′ minute to provide a little more intrigue.

Full time at the Olimpico: @ASRomaEN with three goals wins the match against @TorinoFC1906_En! #RomaTorino #SerieATIM #WeAreCalcio pic.twitter.com/QadXLkdRxF

— Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) December 17, 2020

The losses keep piling up for the Toros as they’ve now lost three on the spin, have just one win on the season and are winless since November 4. They’ve now also seen each of their past five matches total at least four goals, to go along with both teams scoring in each, good for an average of 4.4  They’re one of three teams to be 10-2 to OVER 2.5 totals on the season and that trend could continue against Saturday’s opponents Bologna.

The official #SerieATIM League Table, 12 Matchdays in.
Share your reaction in the comments! ✍️#WeAreCalcio pic.twitter.com/yDLs7iP6my

— Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) December 17, 2020

Bologna played midweek away to newcomers Spezia and were coming off back-to-back defeats before the match. For much of the game, it looked like that losing streak would continue after they fell behind 1-0 in the 19′ minute and 2-0 in the 63′ minute.

However, the comeback was on when Nicolas Dominguez put Bologna on the board in the 72′. Musa Barrow, with the game winding down, would strike from way out in the 92′ minute to draw Bologna level. Then, with a chance to give Bologna an improbable win minutes later from the spot, would have his penalty saved and the teams would split the points with a 2-2 draw.

Musa Barrow was both hero and villain for Bologna, as his lob from midfield completed the comeback for 2-2 against Spezia, only to see his penalty saved in the 97th minute. #SpeziaBologna pic.twitter.com/gnfMCe9zWO

— Football 24/7 (@Foet247Europe) December 17, 2020

Bologna, with 18 goals scored and 24 conceded on the season, have seen their matches average 3.5 goals per game. Only two teams average higher GPG than Bologna, who are 8-4 to OVER 2.5 totals.

Last season betting the UNDER was the way to go with this matchup. Torino were 1-0 winners at home and the two drew 1-1 in Bologna. The previous season it was a 2-2 draw in Bologna and a 3-2 road win for Bologna. That was the only road win for either team in their past eight meetings.

Bologna conceding in a match is typically a given. But Torino’s defense has been just as poor so to me, betting goals is the only way to look in this one.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-110)

Atalanta vs AS Roma

The second-to-last match of Serie A Round 13 sees Atalanta hosting AS Roma at 12:00 pm EST Sunday afternoon.

Atalanta have found it hard to replicate last season’s title-challenging season as they currently sit ninth in the Serie A table at 5-3-3. The previously high-scoring La Dea have scored multiple goals just once in their past five, which was also their only win in that period. The UNDER is 4-1 in those matches and they are 1-3-1. But they are coming off a strong 1-1 away draw with champions Juventus on Wednesday.

Their struggles have been amplified with the internal team issues between manager Gian Piero Gasperini and star player Papu Gomez. Gome has seen limited time in the lineup of late.

(☀️) There is a serious possibility that Papu Gomez 🇦🇷 can leave already in January if things do not change. He wants to listen to the proposals, and evaluate with his family that has a decisive weight for the Argentine. ✈️ [@FabrizioRomano] #Atalanta #ALNASSR pic.twitter.com/s8oP1G6o1S

— RouteOneFootball (@Route1futbol) December 14, 2020

Given the struggles in Bergamo, Roma likely isn’t the first team Gasperini would like to see right now. Roma’s win over Torino on Thursday has lifted them to fourth in the table at 7-2-3 (WDL) ahead of this Serie A Round 13 fixture.

Roma are the league’s second-highest scorers, tied with AC Milan at 27 and only behind Inter’s 30. They come into this match undefeated in three and off the back of comfortable 5-1 and 3-1 wins.

There’s reason to believe Atalanta should be the team to carry the play in this match. Atalanta has the sixth-highest average possession in the league at 53.3-percent according to FBRef. While Roma is about mid-pack, ranking 11th at 49.2-percent.

The teams are similar in middle third touches (8th Roma/9th Atalanta), but Atalanta ranks second in final third passes, compared to Roma who sits 10th.

🥵 Che partita, ragazzi… Grandissimi, #molamia!!
👏 What a match, guys… Great performance, we never give up!!@Plus500 #JuveAtalanta #SerieATIM #GoAtalantaGo ⚫🔵 pic.twitter.com/N67R4yzeiB

— Atalanta B.C. (@Atalanta_BC) December 16, 2020

Additionally, Atalanta owns the edge in successful dribble rate in the division at 64-percent compared to Roma’s 57.2. Roma fails to apply much pressure, ranking 16th in pressure rate and dead-last in tackling percentage versus dribblers.

The form team is definitely Roma in this match. Though Atalanta are more than capable of going toe-to-toe with them on Sunday. While Atalanta have been turning in inconsistent performances, Roma have been the opposite with just one defeat in their past 11. On the road, they’ve also only kept a single clean sheet in six matches.

This is another match likely to see goals from both sides. Both teams to score (-225) and even a bet on both scoring and OVER 2.5 (-150) won’t get you a huge return but do look likely. But given Roma’s form, a ‘Draw No Bet’ on the Romans at +120 may be the best value.

Pick: Roma DNB (+120)

Lazio vs Napoli

Serie A Round 13 comes to a close Sunday afternoon at 2:45 pm EST when Lazio hosts Napoli.

Both sides are coming off disappointing midweek results. Lazio were away to Benevento, and could only manage a 1-1 draw with the promoted side. The Biancocelesti have now won just once in their past four matches and that came against another promoted side, Spezia. They’ve also lost to Verona and Udinese.

Lazio’s season hasn’t been strong so far and at home they’ve especially struggled at just 1-2-3 (WDL). They’ve also yet to collect three points against any of the top teams as their wins over Cagliari, Bologna, Torino, Crotone and Spezia, have come against teams ranked no higher than 12th and who have a combined record of 11-16-33 (WDL).

94' | #BeneventoLazio 1-1

⏹ TRIPLICE FISCHIO!
Si conclude così l'incontro al Ciro Vigorito di Benevento #CMonEagles 🦅 pic.twitter.com/WPRhMkRGW3

— S.S.Lazio (@OfficialSSLazio) December 15, 2020

Napoli gave up ground in the race for the top of the table on Wednesday when they went to Milan and lost 1-0 to Inter in a key top three clash. The match was scoreless until late in the second half when Inter was awarded a penalty that saw Romelu Lukaku put home the game’s only goal from the spot for a 1-0 Inter win.

Lorenzo Insigne was also given a red card and his absence will be felt on Sunday as the captain has four goals and two assists on the season. Napoli will also be without Dries Mertens injury who is set to miss three weeks with an ankle injury he picked up in the match.

Sport news 'In England and Scotland they tell refs to f*** off all the time!': Gennaro Gattuso, in an eye-patch, rages at Italian referees being oversensitive after Napoli captain Lorenzo Insigne was sent off for swearing at officials Metinews.c… https://t.co/IRFTwMN8zn

— MetiNews.Com Breaking News (@MetiNewsCom) December 17, 2020

The loss snapped a streak that had seen Napoli win 2-1, 4-0 and 4-0 in their previous three. It was also just their third true loss of the season (not counting the Juve default).

Though Napoli is looked at more as an offensive team, they’ve been strong defensively this season. Only twice have they allowed multiple goals this season (2-0 loss Sassuolo and 3-1 loss to AC Milan).

This is a match that Napoli has dominated in recent years. In their past 11 meetings in all competitions, Napoli is 9-1-1. Lazio’s one win did come last season though, 1-0, at home in January. Napoli then also won 1-0 at home in the Coppa Italia and were 3-1 winners at home in the league in August.

It’s a short week, Lazio hasn’t been in the best of form and Napoli will be missing some key players. I think this one will be close and could be worth a bet on the half-time draw (-110) or even full-time draw (+240). However, I’ll back the UNDER as the best overall bet.

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-110)