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With Seven-Point Ligue 1 Lead, PSG’s Title Odds Now -4200

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer News

Updated Apr 13, 2020 · 2:28 PM PDT

Kylian Mbappe hopes to lead Paris St Germain to UCL glory with his goals.
Kylian Mbappe and PSG have opeend up a seven-point lead over Lyon in France's Ligue 1 division. Photo from @PSG Official(Twitter).
  • PSG have suffered three defeats already in Ligue 1
  • Odds have still shortened over the last few weeks
  • Some bookmakers not offering a price on PSG outrights anymore

Paris Saint-Germain’s average Ligue 1 odds were -1400 back in September. The price is a whopping -4200 on average now despite Thomas Tuchel’s side suffering a rocky start to the campaign, losing three of their first 12 matches. The chasing pack still haven’t been able to keep pace with the Parisians, however, as the reigning champions have already built a seven-point lead atop the league.

Several bookmakers are no longer offering full outright odds with PSG included. Lyon are the favorites to win without PSG with Marseille and Monaco following at +600 and +850 respectively.

2019-20 Ligue 1 Odds

Team Odds to Win Without PSG
PSG N/A
Lyon +110
Marseille +600
Monaco +850
Lille +1400
Nantes +2200
Saint Etienne +2400
Bordeaux +2650
Rennes +1750
Montpellier +3500

Odds taken Nov. 7. 

Injuries Woes in the Capital

Much of PSG’s poor start can be attributed to an injury crisis. Tuchel has had to delve deep into his squad already this season with no player having started more than nine of the 12 Ligue 1 matches to date. The fearsome attacking triumvirate of Neymar, Kylian Mbappe and Edinson Cavani have all missed considerable periods of time. Cavani was unavailable for two months of the season and is yet to return to full fitness. Neymar hasn’t played since an international friendly on October 13th.

PSG’s depth of squad – particularly summer signings Mauro Icardi and Pablo Sarabia – has seen them continue to control Ligue 1. Their 28.28 expected points is well clear of Lille, who rank second-best in the league. With Idrissa Gueye and Marco Verratti marshaling the midfield, PSG have been able to limit opponents to very few goal-scoring opportunities. Thiago Silva remains a rock in central defense.

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In their most recent defeat, a 2-1 loss to Dijon, PSG had poor finishing to blame. Although they conceded twice, the defense didn’t give up many clearcut chances.

PSG have been unfortunate so far. Building a seven-point lead with so many key players unavailable shows how far they are ahead of the rest. Rumors of Tuchel leaving for Bayern could unsettle them, but even that is unlikely to be enough to ignite a genuine title race.

Lyon Favored

Lyon had two wins from their first 12 Ligue 1 matches, but Les Gones have won their last two to pull within four points of second-place Angers. Moussa Dembele and Memphis Depay have been lethal so far this season, contributing 15 Ligue 1 goals between them. Lyon’s defense has been one of the best in the league.

Rudi Garcia has the most talented squad in the league outside of Paris. Their slow start hasn’t seen them fall out of contention – their two recent victories put them in a good position to force their way up the table. The +110 to win without PSG could soon shorten further.

Marseille Missing Thauvin

Florian Thauvin is expected to miss the rest of 2019 through injury. Thauvin and Dimitri Payet have been one of the most effective attacking duos in Europe over the last two seasons. Marseille’s forward play isn’t the same without Thauvin, and they have struggled creatively this season.

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Despite losing two of their last four league matches, Marseille sit fourth in the league, just one point behind Angers. The combination of an average defense and Thauvin’s absence makes +600 too short a price.

Lille Longshot

Lyon are likely best positioned to win without PSG, but Lille are a team to keep an eye on. A poor recent run might mean +1400 is the best price available all season – Christophe Galtier’s side will cause any defense problems with their pace. They have been solid enough defensively.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lille and Lyon tussling for second this season.

Pick: Lyon at +110

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