South Korean K League Matchday 4 Odds & Picks

• The South Korean K League Matchday 4 kicks off on Friday
• Can Ulsan rebound after dropping points and falling behind Jeonbuk in the title race last week?
• Read on for the odds and best bets for Matchday 4 below

If we take an early analysis of how empty stadiums may be affecting matches so far in South Korea, it’s still a small sample size but we have a few interesting takeaways. Home teams have yet to seem too bothered to be playing without their fans with a 9-5-4 record (WDL) through three rounds.

The Korean league isn’t one of the highest-scoring leagues, as last year saw an average of 2.61 goals per game during the 33-game regular season. However, scoring has looked to be down thus far by about half a goal to just 2.06. Both teams have scored in only seven of the first 18 matches and UNDERS have clearly been the way to bet in the totals markets. UNDER 2.5 totals are 13-5 and UNDER 3.5 totals are 15-3. Last week saw only 11 goals scored during the round and only one match go OVER 2.5.

Let’s take a look at the upcoming schedule and find a few best bets for this weekend’s card.

K League Matchday 4 Odds

Odds taken May 26

Pick 1: Daegu FC vs Sangju Sangmu

This round of fixtures opens Friday morning at 6:30 am EST when Daegu hosts Sangju as even-money favorites.

These teams finished just four points apart in last year’s regular season with Daegu in fourth with 50 points and Sangju seventh with 46. However, the cutoff of sixth for the championship round did mean Sangju was sent to the relegation round for the final weeks of the season.

In three meetings last year each won at home, Daegu 1-0 and Sangju 2-0 before the teams drew 1-1 in the final meeting in Daegu.

Daegu matches were low-scoring last year with 41 scored and 31 allowed in 33 regular season games. That trend has continued in 2020 as they’ve scored just once and conceded three times in their first three matches. 0-0 and 1-1 draws against Incheon and Pohang were followed by a 2-0 defeat last week to reigning champs Jeonbuk—hardly a poor result.

Seven goals have been scored in the three Sangju matches this season but four of those came during a one-sided road defeat to Ulsan in Round 1. Sangju have regrouped since with 2-0 and 1-0 wins over Gangwon and Gwangju.

Outside of one 5-2 result in September of 2018, five of the past six meetings between these two have ended with UNDER 2.5 total goals.

The UNDER has been the way to bet with Daegu recently as only once in their past eight games have more than two goals been scored. In three of their past eight they’ve ended deadlocked at 0-0. When you consider the draw has cashed in eight of 14 recent Daegu matches, a blind bet on the draw which typically pays between +200 and +250 would have been a profitable play.

Sangju are not a team that records too many draws as none of their past 11 league matches have ended in a stalemate. Though last week they scored early six minutes into the match and could not add to that lead against the newly-promoted Gwangju.

I like the draw and/or UNDER 2.5 goals in this match. Alternatively, Sangju have won six of nine and a bet on Sangju double chance (win or draw) at -125 could be a play.

Pick: Draw (+220), UNDER 2.5 (-165)

Pick 2: Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai

At 6:00 am EST on Saturday morning new boys Gwangju entertain title contenders Ulsan Hyundai.

Gwangju were tops in the K League 2 last year but have been unable to make a smooth transition into the top flight this season. While they haven’t been run off the pitch, they are still both winless and goalless in their first three matches. Gwangju were defeated 2-0 to Seongnam on opening day, and fell 1-0 to both Seoul and Sangju the past two weeks. Not only are they goalless in the season, but they’ve also only managed five shots on target.

🇰🇷 @kleague 1 Recap: @ulsanFC 1-1 @BusaniparkFC

🗞️ The Horangi were held by a buoyant Busan. @ToddWilde1 recaps the match.#KLeague | #K리그 | #ULSvBUShttps://t.co/nrTMTPSzOA

— K League United (@KLeagueUnited) May 26, 2020

They sit as the only winless side in the league entering Matchday 4 and will have their hands full against Ulsan who sit second in the table with two wins and a draw.

After opening with a 4-0 win over Sangju, they were narrow 3-2 winners over Suwon and suffered a setback to their season in a 1-1 draw last week against another promoted side in Busan IPark.

Busan, while only 11th-place themselves with one point, have looked the stronger of the two promoted sides with a narrow, late loss to champions Jeonbuk and now a draw against last year’s first-place team in the regular season in Ulsan.

Still, for the league’s highest-scoring side, a draw to a promoted team was not expected and they now see themselves one point behind Jeonbuk in the table.

Junior Negao scores goals. His record for Ulsan is ridiculous:

• 2018/19: 22 goals in 2,480 minutes.
• 2019/20: 19 goals in 2,604 minutes.

He leads the line again today for Ulsan. So far this season:

• Games: 2
• Goals: 4

Go on lad. pic.twitter.com/mkDg2jBEP1

— Discrete Tipster (@DiscreteTipster) May 24, 2020

That Ulsan couldn’t pick up the full three points last week was even more shocking considering they held the edge in possession (62-percent), attempts (13-9), shots on target (9-1) and corners (9-1).

On the season they now have 20 shots on target and come Saturday Junior Negao (five goals) and the Ulsan attack will likely be putting the Gwangju goal under immense pressure and should emerge victorious. Not only should the Horangi take the three points, but backing Negao to find the back of the net at -110 odds also looks a strong bet.

Pick: Ulsan win (-138), Junior Negao anytime scorer (-110)

Pick 3: Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers

The final game of the weekend kicks off at 6:00 am EST on Sunday morning between 10th-place Incheon United and sixth-place Pohang.

Pohang are in their expected top-half of the table position after three rounds but have seen their form stumble since an opening day 2-0 win over Busan. The past two weeks have seen them draw 1-1 to Daegu and lose 2-1 at home last week to Seoul.

Sunday sees them face an interesting opponent in Incheon who have two points and two draws through three rounds despite yet to scoring any goals on the year. The flipside? They’ve also only allowed one goal all season. But this is nothing new for Incheon, whose 1-0 loss last week broke a streak of three-straight 0-0 draws.

Game finished.

🔵 Suwon Samsung Bluewings 1 – 0 Incheon United ⚪

🔵⚪🔴#Kleague #Bluewingsfc #INC #SSBvINC #SSB #Bluewingsfc #IUFC #BLUEWINGSFCvIUFC pic.twitter.com/0YEGMAOyDR

— Bluewings News / Team BlueWhelk (@BluewingsNews) May 23, 2020

Incheon have drawn in seven of their past 12 matches. In their past nine they’ve scored multiple goals just once, but have allowed multiple goals only once as well. Each of those past nine have also seen goal totals of UNDER 2.5 cash.

Interestingly, in the last meeting between these teams last season, there was a goal-scoring explosion that saw Pohang win 5-3 at home back in August. That outburst did come during a streak of six matches which saw Incheon matches average 4.83 GPG, rather an outlying stretch in typical Incheon results.

The two other head-to-heads last year saw Incheon win 2-1 and Pohang win 1-0, both on the road. In 2018, their scorelines were 0-0, 2-1 and 1-0.

Until Incheon matches begin to differ from what we’ve seen for the last number of months, continuing to back draws or low-scoring affairs seem like the best bets.

Pick: Draw (+225), UNDER 2.5 (-160)