Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United Odds & Preview: MLS Cup Playoffs Western Conference Semifinals

•  Sporting Kansas City will host Minnesota United in the MLS Cup Playoffs Western Conference Semifinals on December 3
• Minnesota has never won a game in Kansas City
• See the odds for this semifinals match along with our preview and best bet below

Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United was the first conference semifinal match to be set after this weekend’s Round One matches. The winner of this game will play the winner of the Seattle Sounders vs FC Dallas being played on Tuesday.

Read on for our preview and best bet for this MLS Cup Playoffs match on Thursday, December 3, 2020, at 8:30 pm EST. This game was originally scheduled to be played on Wednesday but was moved to Monday, for non-COVID reasons.

Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United Odds

All odds taken Nov 30 at Bet365

Three PK Saves By Melia Sends SKC to Semis

Sporting Kansas City was first in the Western Conference and did so by starting and finishing the season in blistering form. SKC was 7-1-3 (WDL) in their final 11 and culminated the regular season with 4-0, 1-0 and 2-0 wins after a down spell during the summer months. Their final eight saw them lose just once with a 6-1-1 record.

Sporting were heavy favorites at home to San Jose in Round One and got off the mark quickly with an early fourth-minute goal from Roger Espinoza. San Jose would fight back with two goals of their own in the first half to take a 2-1 lead into the break before SKC drew level early in the second.

The match looked like it was headed to extra-time until Sporting’s Gianluca Busio scored what he thought was the winning goal in stoppage time in the 91′ minute. With the game moments from being over though, the league’s all-time scorer Chris Wondolowski scored the equalizer with a 97′ minute header to level the score at 3-3.

Extra-time didn’t decide anything. This lead to the Tim Melia show in penalties as SKC’s keeper was a brick wall stopping all three San Jose shooters to ensure Sporting’s season continued.

⚠️ Schedule Update ⚠️

Wednesday’s game at @SportingKC has been moved to Thursday at 7:30 p.m. CT.

Also, it will air on FOX. pic.twitter.com/xLNBInpv8F

— Minnesota United FC (@MNUFC) November 30, 2020

Loons Run Wild Over Rapids

Adrian Heath’s Minnesota United finished fourth in the Western Conference and also had home-field in Round One when they met the Colorado Rapids.

The Loons were exceptional down the stretch run of the season. Minnesota was undefeated in their final eight at 4-4-0 with wins in three of their final four matches.

Against the Rapids, it was Colorado who started the match with more flare. However, against the run of play, Kevin Molino scored first in the 22′ minute to give Minnesota the lead. With a 1-0 lead heading into the second half, the Loons would add to their lead with goals in the 54′ and 79′ minutes, one by Robin Lod and a second from Molino. Emanuel Reynoso played a big part in the match with two assists of his own.

Despite the lopsided score, Colorado did have their chances, with seven shots on target, an edge in final third passes and a heavy edge in crosses (26-9).

Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United Stats

These teams know each other well as this will be the fourth meeting this season between them. They first met at the MLS is Back Tournament this summer. SKC looked in control for much of the game and led 1-0. However, a Tim Melia red card in the second half in the 74′ minute flipped the game on its head. Minnesota would score twice in stoppage time to claim the 2-1 win.

The teams would meet again in each team’s first game back after the tournament in Minnesota. The game saw all three goals come in the first half and result in a 2-1 win for Sporting.

Then on September 13 in Kansas City, SKC created plenty of chances but were unable to score until a late 80′ minute Johnny Russell goal proved to be the winner. Both teams were playing without key attacking players in the match as well. Both Alan Pulido and Luis Amarilla were out for their respective sides.

Key Stats and Trends

Sporting was already listed as the favorites in this match and that was before the news that star striker Alan Pulido could be in line to return from a knee injury. SKC’s DP striker has just 11 starts in 2020 but has six goals and five assists. Pulido may not start but it sounds like he will factor into the equation in some way.

Both of these teams are hot at just the right time, yet by an expected goal ratio, both have somewhat overperformed.

SKC’s 38 goals are above their xG of 33.1, yet their xGA is right about even at 25 goals allowed, with an xGA of 25.9.

But for Minnesota, they’ve scored 36 on the year, with an xG of 29.8, while allowing 26 with an xGA of 36.3.

Peter Vermes says that Alan Pulido is available for SKC's playoff match against Minnesota United.

He also said that Minnesota United are the favorites (?) because "that's what the pundits are saying."

BetMGM has SKC as a -162 favorite, MNUFC a +425 underdog

— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) November 30, 2020

It will also be interesting to see which team decides to take charge of the game offensively. Neither are strong possession teams with SKC at 49.7-percent average possession and Minnesota at 47.3-percent. SKC has only seen greater than 50-percent of the ball once in their past nine games, while Minnesota has had over 50-percent just twice in their past 12.

Sporting will have home-field throughout the Western Playoffs, though their home form is not the strongest in the league at 6-1-4 (WDL). Not bad, just not as good as some of the league’s other top sides. That said, they’ve won each of their past four at home.

Behind The Shield: Earthquakes and Giants.#HappyThanksgiving // @audi

— Sporting KC (@SportingKC) November 25, 2020

While Minnesota is in strong form, they finished the year with several matches at home. Five of their past six have been on home soil. Minnesota’s road form will be tested in this one where they have often struggled in 2020. Minnesota won their last road match, but it’s their only road win in their past nine away and it was a close 1-0 win over the lowly FC Cincinnati.

Furthermore, games at Children’s Mercy Park have been a horror show for the Loons. Minnesota is 0-0-7 while being outscored 17-1 in seven all-time meetings either in MLS play or the US Open Cup in Kansas City.

“If we play like we can, we can win this game.” pic.twitter.com/mIiaTpcm75

— Minnesota United FC (@MNUFC) December 1, 2020

SKC vs Minnesota Best Bet

SKC certainly had the edge this season with two wins to Minnesota’s one. Even in their loss at MLS is Back, SKC was in a position to win until Melia’s sending off and the Loons’ late goals.

This one’s a toss-up. SKC, first in the West, at home and given Minnesota’s road form should be favored. But at -163 odds, that gives SKC nearly a 62-percent implied probability of winning. SKC shouldn’t be favored to that degree. I don’t believe Minnesota has just a 20-percent probability of winning at +400.

There’s definitely value in a Minnesota upset. We’ve seen plenty of games go to extra-time already during the MLS Cup Playoffs though. Pulido’s inclusion could further tip the scales in SKC’s favor. But from a value perspective, a Minnesota double chance bet (win or draw in regulation) looks a good bet at +120 odds.

I can also see both teams being involved in the scoring. Rather than trying to pick an outright winner in a close match, backing both to score and at least three goals is my best bet.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-110)