Swansea vs Cardiff Odds & Prediction – EFL Championship Round 38
- Third-placed Swansea hosts South Wales derby clash at 12:30 pm ET on Saturday
- Cardiff seeks to restore new manager ‘bounce’ inspired by veteran coach McCarthy
- See all the odds and best bets for Swansea vs Cardiff on EFL Championship Round 38 below
Swansea City collides with fierce rivals Cardiff City on Saturday in what would ordinarily be one of the most ferociously intense match-ups in the EFL Championship.
Sadly, the absence of fans means another south Wales derby will pass without the fixture’s traditional hot-house atmosphere.
But there is still plenty riding on the game with Swansea chasing an automatic promotion place and Cardiff hoping to bust into the playoff zone.
Swansea vs Cardiff Odds
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Total at DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea City vs Cardiff City | SWA -0.25 (+118) | CAR +0.25 (-150) | SWA +160| CAR +195 | DRAW +195 | Ov 2.5 (+125) | Un 2.5 (-165) |
Odds taken Mar 18
Indeed, it is one of the most important derby clashes between these sides in recent times with kick-off at 12:30 pm ET.
Both teams have stuttered slightly lately. Third-placed Swansea went down 3-0 at seventh-placed Bournemouth last Tuesday.
Meanwhile, ninth-placed Cardiff’s resurgence under recently-appointed coach Mick McCarthy has been tempered by two draws and a defeat in their past three outings – including a 0-0 stalemate at home against Stoke City in midweek.
With the third-best home record in the division, Swansea is priced at +160 for a win at DraftKings. But the oddsmakers think it will be reasonably tight with Cardiff at +195 and the draw also at +195.
Cardiff More Prolific Goal-scorers
There is value there in the draw in what will potentially be a low-scoring affair.
Cardiff is more prolific in front of goal than their higher-placed neighbors with 54 scored to Swansea’s 45.
By contrast, Swansea is stronger defensively with 45 goals scored against them to Cardiff’s 54 conceded.
🗣 "It's a fabulous club and I've said before that I'm surprised people who have been here have not said that to me."
Mick McCarthy discusses his "honour" of reaching 1,000 games in management, @CardiffCityFC, his spell in Cyprus and some of his career highlights 👇
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) March 13, 2021
Therefore, their relative qualities may cancel each other out and the points may be shared.
In what is an exhausting Championship campaign, Swansea has become a pragmatic team with few frills – although that is commonplace with two fixtures-per-week the norm in this truncated season.
Since Mick McCarthy’s appointment on January 22, Cardiff has lost just once – while winning seven times and drawing five games.
Meanwhile, veteran former Ireland and APOEL Nicosia coach McCarthy has made the most of Cardiff’s physical battling qualities to turn around their season following the dismissal of former boss Neil Harris.
Since McCarthy’s appointment on January 22, Cardiff has lost just once – while winning seven times and drawing five games.
Next up… the South Wales derby 🦢
We take a closer look at the Bluebirds 🔎
Meet the opposition 👉 https://t.co/LJQKSJJWC0 pic.twitter.com/0AhDo74yKu
— Swansea City AFC (@SwansOfficial) March 19, 2021
He has lifted them from 15th place to ninth spot, although they have been as high as seventh under his command – and now have an outside chance of a top-six playoff zone finish.
Steve Cooper’s Swansea side was in second place as recently as January 30 although they have subsequently been outside of the automatic promotion places.
This week marked 50 years since the unthinkable happened, Cardiff City toppled Real Madrid in the European Cup Winners' Cup
More 👉 https://t.co/hTII8MGHVB pic.twitter.com/2qZZZbDZck
— BBC Sport Wales (@BBCSportWales) March 12, 2021
Before the defeat by Bournemouth, they had won three and drawn one of their previous four games.
Further, at their Liberty Stadium HQ, they have won 11 times this season while drawing on five occasions ad losing only twice.
EFL Swansea vs Cardiff Stats
| 20 | Wins | 15 |
| 9 | Draws | 10 |
| 7 | Losses | 12 |
| 45 | Goals | 54 |
| 28 | Goals Against | 37 |
| 59 | Yellow Cards | 61 |
| 1 | Red Cards | 3 |
| 18 | Clean Sheets | 13 |
The defensive record at home is particularly impressive with only 10 goals conceded against 23 scored.
Indeed, they have kept no fewer than 11 clean sheets in their 18 home matches.
However, Cardiff has the fourth-best statistics on the road in the competition with eight wins, six draws and four defeats.
Again, this suggests honors could be even this weekend – with McCarthy’s team scoring 22 times away from home while conceding 16 times.
Seven Away Games Unbeaten
Impressively, they are undefeated in their last seven away fixtures.
There was a 2-0 win for Swansea when they visited the Cardiff City Stadium earlier in the season last December with striker Jamal Lowe scoring twice.
The Swansea City vs Cardiff City exact score predicted – our writers deliver their South Wales derby verdicts #Swans #ccfc https://t.co/PSpQCBoGxu
— Cardiff City Online (@CardiffCityLive) March 19, 2021
However, the physical rigors of this busy season are debilitating the leading marksmen of both clubs.
Lowe has not scored in 14 games after claiming nine goals earlier in the campaign.
Similarly, Cardiff’s 16-goal leading scorer Kieffer Moore is without a strike in his last three appearances.
At Swansea, Lowe’s partner Andre Ayew has 14 goals.
This is likely to be a tight and low-scoring affair between two fierce rivals.
But after a recent purple patch in which Ayew scored five times in four games, he has not hit the target in his last two outings.
This is likely to be a tight and low-scoring affair between two fierce rivals.
🗣️ “Any time you have a chance to make a bit of history, it means heck of a lot.”@WayneRoutledge says the #Swans are determined to become history makers and end a 109-year wait for a derby double over Cardiff City.
👉 https://t.co/c1ITYjLhC5 pic.twitter.com/3SrNOMkGxR
— Swansea City AFC (@SwansOfficial) March 18, 2021
Even so, there is some value in the spread offer for Swansea to win by one goal or more at +118 (Asian Handicap -0.25), giving some added insurance in case of a draw.
However, there is a lot at stake here as well as local pride which should make this an edgy game.
With that in mind, recent results, the weariness of their leading strikers and the mainly stubborn mood of both teams suggest the draw is most likely.
Pick: Draw +195
John Dillon is a leading member of the UK's sporting media, having spent three decades as a national newspaper soccer and sports writer, broadcaster and author. He has covered five World Cups, six European Championships and was Chief Sports Writer at the Daily Express for 14 years.
