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Tigres vs Guadalajara Odds & Prediction – Liga MX Clausura Final Leg 1

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated May 25, 2023 · 4:39 PM PDT

Tigres' Andre Gignac Tigres vs Guadalajara
Tigres' Andre Gignac, center, fights for the ball with Bayern's Joshua Kimmich, left, and Bayern's Benjamin Pavard during the Club World Cup final soccer match between FC Bayern Munich and Tigres at the Education City stadium in Al Rayyan, Qatar, Thursday, Feb. 11, 2021. (AP Photo)
  • It’s Tigres vs Guadalajara in the Liga MX Clausura Final Leg 1 on Thursday, May 24
  • Tigres beat Monterrey 2-1 on aggregate to qualify, while Guadalajara beat Club America 3-2
  • Find our Tigres vs Guadalajara prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

It’s Tigres vs Guadalajara in the Liga MX Clausura Final Leg 1 on Thursday, May 25, with kick-off at the Estadio Universitario at 10:00 pm ET.

We preview our Tigres vs Guadalajara picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.

Tigres vs Guadalajara Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Tigres +105
Guadalajara +295
Draw +220

The bookmakers have Tigres listed as +105  favorites for the home win which offers an implied win probability of 49%, while Guadalajara are +295 for the first leg win with a probability of 25%. The draw is also nicely priced at +220 in the Tigres vs Guadalajara odds and is implied at 31%.

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Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on May 25.

Tigres vs Guadalajara Over/Under and Spread

With the tipping point set at 2.5 goals in the game, the bookies have listed the over in plus money at +130 and the under at a less-appealing -170. They, by implication, are anticipating a tight, close game with few goals.

Tigres vs Guadalajara Preview

A mediocre regular season for Robert Siboldi’s Tigres saw them finish seventh in the table and miss out on a direct route to the quarterfinals. Instead, they went into the ‘reclassification’ phase where they met Puebla, who had finished eleventh.

Thanks to their higher seeding, Tigres had home advantage in this one-off tie and made it count by beating Puebla 1-0, thanks to a 56th-minute goal from Sebastián Córdova. The win set up a two-legged quarterfinal with Toluca, who had finished fourth in the regular season.

Fine Display in Monterrey

Despite Tigres having to play the second leg of their quarterfinal away from home, they went through 5-4 in dramatic fashion. After recording an outstanding 4-1 win in Toluca, they went down 3-1 in their home tie and in the end scraped through to the next phase by the odd goal.

In their semifinal, they were pitched against top seeds Monterrey – who had finished top of the table in the regular season – and after drawing 1-1 in Monterrey in the first leg, produced a fine performance in the home leg to win 1-0; both of their goals in the tie coming, again, from Córdova.

Top Three Finish for Guadalajara

Guadalajara’s head coach Veljko Paunovic has put together a team capable of going all the way in this tournament after finishing the regular season in third place – losing just three games along the way.

In their quarterfinal, they edged past Atlas by the smallest margin possible; drawing 1-1 over the two legs but advancing due to them being the higher-seeded team. They came up against the mighty Club America in the semifinal, with the first leg in Guadalajara and the second in Mexico City.

 

Huge Win for Chivas in Azteca

Things didn’t initially go to plan for Paunovic’s men who were unable to make the most of home advantage in the first leg and ended up losing 1-0 to a goal from Zendejas.

But they more than made up for that defeat in the second leg, which was played out in front of over 67,000 in the world-famous Azteca Stadium. Ronaldo Cisneros’ opener for Guadalajara was canceled out by a Valdes strike on 57 minutes, but late goals from substitute Mozo and Orozco clinched a dramatic victory

Tigres vs Guadalajara Team Lineups and Injuries

Tigres Projected Lineup: Guzman, Aquino, Angulo, Reyes, Pizarro, Garza, Vigon, Carioca, Gorriaran, Gignac, Cordova.

Injuries & absences: Ayala, Ortega, Santos.

Guadalajara Projected Lineup: Jiminez, Orozco, Briseno, Sepulveda, Gonzalez, Guzman, Beltran, Alvarado, Cisneros (C), Vega, Cisneros (R).

Injuries & absences: Macias.

Tigres vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head Stats

TIGRES
VS
GUADALAJARA
7-4-6 (7th)  2022-23 regular season 10-4-3 (3rd)
20 / 17 Goals for / against 28 / 18
3 -1 -1 2022-23 playoff phase 2 – 0 – 2
8 / 5 Goals for / against 4 / 3
7 Liga MX championships 12
LWWLDW Form Guide (all comps) WWLWLW

* Stats from WhoScored.com.

Tigres vs Guadalajara Prediction

What’s interesting here is that both teams won the tricky away legs of their semifinals but were unable to find home wins. Worth noting too is that both were away in the second leg.

On that basis, it’s advantage Tigres in terms of qualification, although they may need to get the job done in Guadalajara. For me, in what promises to be a cagey first leg, the value here is with the tie.

Tigres vs Guadalajara Picks: The draw (+220) / Under 2.5 goals (-170)

 

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