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Tottenham & Arsenal Favored For Top Four 2019 English Premier League Finish

Tottenham's Son Heung-min
Son Heung-min has stepped up all season and will be key to keeping Tottenham within the EPL's Top 4. Photo By Дмитрий Голубович (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Spurs third but face Man City ‘revenge’ date
  • Gunners have lost just one game in eight
  • Man Utd outsiders after Solskjaer slump

England’s biggest clubs value a top-four finish more highly than their domestic cup competitions because it brings qualification for the Champions League.

Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United are involved in a fierce four-way EPL battle to claim the two precious places beneath the pair fighting for the title, Liverpool and Manchester City.

2019 EPL Top 4 Odds

Team Odds at Bovada
Tottenham -400
Arsenal -200
Chelsea +160
Manchester United +275

*Odds taken on April 18, 2019

This is what makes the EPL so competitive, with third-placed Tottenham at odds of –400 and fourth-placed Arsenal at -200 both favored to claim the final two coveted spots.

Chelsea Stutter Under Maurizio Sarri

Chelsea, currently fifth, have been unconvincing under the eccentric managership of Maurizio Sarri recently. They have played one game more than their three rivals.

So they are rated at +160.

For the new Manchester United manager, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, the honeymoon is over after five defeats in the last seven games in all competitions.

They are in sixth place and are the widest outsiders for a top four finish at +275.

After only one defeat in the previous eight league matches, Arsenal offer the better value than Spurs to finish either third or fourth.

Answer to Away Form Troubles

The Gunners have been under-fire for their erratic form away from home but they delivered an answer to that with hard-fought 1-0 win at Watford on Monday.

At their Emirates home, they have lost only one league fixture all season.

A home game against Brighton, who could be fighting against relegation, before a tough trip to Burnley on the final day.

Their run-in has complications as they are likely to advance to the Europa League semifinal against either Villareal or Valencia. And, after a home league game against Crystal Palace, they face two tough away trips to Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leicester City

They then face a home game against Brighton, who could be fighting against relegation, before a tough trip to Burnley on the final day.

The price offers better value than Tottenham, however.

For Spurs, there is the instant prospect of again facing a Manchester City team chasing the title and eager for revenge after the north London side defeated them in a dramatic Champions League, quarterfinal second leg on Wednesday.

UCL Mission a Distraction For Spurs

Tottenham return to the Etihad immediately on Saturday, April, 20. As well as the distraction of a two-legged Champions League semifinal against Ajax, Mauricio Pochettino’s team face a tricky run-in.

Their move into their new stadium has halted a decline in league form. Wins against Crystal Palace and Huddersfield Town ended a run of three defeats and a draw in their previous four league games.

Two successive home games in the new arena against struggling Brighton and inconsistent West Ham United could boost Spurs’ hopes.

After then visiting Bournemouth, they are again at home on the final day against Everton. Their hopes look good but at -400, they are not as tempting as Arsenal.

Blues will be looking at victory in the Europa League as a more promising route into next season’s Champions League.

Chelsea have won three of their last four league games but have somehow managed to look largely below their best.

The Blues will be looking at victory in the Europa League as a more promising route into next season’s Champions League than the top four. They look likely to advance to the semifinals against either Benfica or Eintracht Frankfurt.

Tough Final Two Games For Chelsea

The Blues face a league game at home against gritty but struggling Burnley and a trip to Manchester United.

The final two games are then against a purposeful Watford side and against much-improved Leicester City. The top four is a tough ask for Chelsea.

Manchester United have won two but lost two of the previous four league games.

A run of three demanding fixtures at Everton and at home to Manchester City and then Chelsea could see them out of the top four running even before the final two matches against already-relegated Huddersfield Town and struggling Cardiff City.

It makes them worth a brave outside bet, though.

Picks: Arsenal -200, Man Utd + 275

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