Tottenham vs Arsenal Odds & Prediction – Premier League Week 20
- Tottenham hosts Arsenal in the 193rd North London Derby on January 15th at 11:30 am ET
- While Spurs sit 11 points back from the Gunners, they are unbeaten in eight Premier League matches at home against their crosstown rivals
- Get more Tottenham vs Arsenal odds and predictions below
On Sunday, Tottenham vs Arsenal caps off what should be a mesmerizing weekend of Premier League action. Even without Gabriel Jesus, Arsenal have managed to keep their title hopes alive, retaining a five-point gap ahead of Manchester City. Still, after a draw against Newcastle in their last league outing, nerves might be starting to set in with the Gunner faithful.
On the other hand, Tottenham sit two points shy of fourth-place Manchester United, who also have a game in hand. Spurs have been a mixed bag since the return of club football with just two victories over Crystal Palace and Portsmouth. Nonetheless, as we say in local derbies, anything can happen.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Tottenham | +225 |
| Arsenal | +114 |
| Draw | +250 |
Odds as of January 14th from Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on this match and claim a unique sign-up bonus.
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Overall, Arsenal are the favorites in this North London Derby with moneyline odds of +114, equating to an implied win probability of 46.7%. Conversely, Tottenham sits at +225 odds. This is tremendous value considering they have not lost at home against Arsenal, in Premier League play, since 2014.
Also, be sure to check out our Premier League odds page to get the latest outright winner odds. Currently, Arsenal has +175 odds to win the Premier League with 21 games left on the slate.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Over/Under
Next, the over on 2.5 goals for this contest has odds of -130, which assumes a 56.5% win probability. In their last ten Premier League affairs, this play has hit 70% of the time. While juicier than we usually recommend, I would favor this ahead of the under on 2.5 goals, with odds of +100.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Statistics
| 2.05 | Goals per game | 2.35 |
| 1.51 | Expected goals per game | 1.90 |
| 1.39 | Goals allowed per game | 0.82 |
| 1.13 | Expected goals allowed per game | 0.88 |
| 52% | Possession % | 58% |
| 28% | Clean Sheet % | 47% |
| 15.2 | Shots per game | 16.7 |
| W-W-L-D-W | Recent Form Guide (All Comps) | W-D-W-W-W |
Stats in the table from the last ten matches across all competitions.
Favor a Red Card on Sunday
Another play I am absolutely in love with is over 0.5 total red cards with odds of +275. These teams hate each other, which has caused three red cards to be shown in their last four Premier League matches.
Rob Holding's red card vs. Tottenham is Arsenal's 13th under Mikel Arteta in the Premier League 😬 pic.twitter.com/J1W1YZ7jmW
— B/R Football (@brfootball) May 12, 2022
Moreover, four of their last eight Premier League matches have also featured a red card, which makes this a high-value prop bet. With Tottenham on the fringe of top four and Arsenal feeling the title pressure, the stakes and emotions will be higher than ever.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Projected Lineups and Injuries
Tottenham Projected Lineup: Lloris, Perisic, Lenglet, Dier, Romero, Doherty, Hojbjerg, Skipp, Son, Kane, Gil
Major Injuries & Absences: Moura, Richarlison, Bentancur (questionable), Kulusevski (questionable)
Arsenal Projected Lineup: Ramsdale, Zinchenko, Gabriel, Saliba, White, Xhaka, Partey, Odegaard, Martinelli, Nketiah, Saka
Major Injuries & Absences: Jesus, Nelson
The Pressure is Rising for Arsenal
On paper, this is a game Arsenal should steal three points in. Essentially, these matches midway through the season against your grittiest rivals are what separates title winners from title contenders.
Nonetheless, for me, Arsenal is a title contender that has held onto first spot for too long. With the Manchester Derby also this weekend, we could ultimately see City pull within two points with both fixtures against Arsenal remaining. That pressure is something this young Arsenal team has yet to experience.
Eddie Nketiah has been a fine Jesus replacement, scoring four in his last four. However, in four appearances, he has never scored against Spurs; a record that should continue on Sunday. Bakayo Saka is another player that could struggle on Sunday as he is recovering from a knock suffered in their FA Cup tie against Oxford.
Meanwhile, across the halfway line, Harry Kane has 17 goal contributions in just 18 games against the Gunners. Even without Dejan Kulusevski, there is an offensive mismatch in this contest, in favor of Spurs.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction
With that being said, I am not ready to shell out all my confidence in Tottenham. I like their draw no bet odds at +135, which takes the risk out of them falling to a stalemate. In their last six matches across Premier League and Champions League play, they have only won the xG battle twice. They are not playing great football at the minute, which is why they do not have my full moneyline bet.
Regardless, I expect Antonio Conte to perplex Mikel Arteta with a ridiculous game plan and surely tempers will flare enough for a red to be drawn.
Pick: Tottenham draw no bet (+135) & Over 0.5 red cards (+275)
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Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
