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USA vs Canada Odds & Prediction – Olympic Women’s Soccer Semifinals

Paul Attfield

by Paul Attfield in Soccer News

Updated Aug 3, 2021 · 6:23 AM PDT

Megan Rapinoe and Jayde Riviere battle for ball
United States forward Megan Rapinoe (15) and Canada defender Jayde Riviere (20) compete for a ball during the first half of a SheBelieves Cup women's soccer match, Thursday, Feb. 18, 2021, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
  • USA and Canada meet in the first Olympic women’s semifinal in a rematch of their epic match at London 2012
  • Both teams needed penalty shootouts to emerge victorious in their quarterfinal matches
  • Read on for a preview, full odds and a best bet for Monday’s clash

Canadian captain Christine Sinclair isn’t likely to soon forget the last time Canada played the United States in an Olympic women’s soccer semifinal. She scored a hat trick against the USA in 2012, but it wasn’t enough as Canada fell 4-3 in extra time in an epic and controversial game that will live long in the memory.

Nine years later, Sinclair and Canada get a chance at redemption at the Tokyo Olympics on Monday, looking to upend the reigning world champions and reach the gold-medal game for the first time. The United States has yet to hit the heights many are used to from the four-time Olympic gold medalist, but with so many big-game players on its roster, few would count against it here.

USA vs Canada Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
United States vs Canada USA -1.5 (+185) | CAN +1.5 (-340) USA -140 | CAN +450
DRAW +265
Ov 2.5 (+100) | Un 2.5 (-120)

Odds as of August 1st at DraftKings

You Again?

Though the two teams are meeting in the Olympics for the first time since 2012, the two teams have played each other more than any other side. Monday’s game will be the 62nd international match between the pair, in a rivalry that has been heavily slanted towards the US over the years.

The Americans own a 51-3-7 edge over their neighbors to the north, and overcame Canada in their most recent encounter at the SheBelieves Cup back in February. A goal from US captain Rose Lavelle was enough to secure the victory.

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This will also be the third meeting at an Olympics, with the US registering a 2-1 quarterfinal win on its way to gold in 2008, before the semifinal meeting four years later.

Familiarity Breeds Contempt?

While Monday’s game will very much be a case of unfinished business for Canada, which is attempting to medal for the third consecutive Games, there are only four players remaining from that 2012 meeting. In addition to Sinclair, there is Desiree Scott, Sophie Schmidt and Erin McLeod.

In addition, Sinclair is the only player on the current Canadian squad to have featured on the winning side against the Americans, which Canada last did at the Algarve Cup in 2001.

Canada’s Offensive Struggles

Despite possessing the all-time international goals leader for either men or women with Sinclair’s 187 goals, Canada has struggled to generate much at these Olympic Games. The team has just four goals in four games, following on from last week’s quarterfinal win over Brazil on penalties after 120 scoreless minutes of play.

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Arguably worse still, Canada has managed just seven shots on goal through those four matches – second-fewest in the tournament – and against the U.S., converting chances will be crucial.

USA’s Will To Win

While the U.S. team has so far failed to fire on all cylinders at these Games, its quarterfinal win over the Netherlands on penalty was the kind of gutsy performance that epitomizes many of the veteran players on its team.

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The likes of Megan Rapinoe and Alex Morgan may no longer be automatic choices to start on the team sheet, but both came on to help steer the Americans to victory against a vibrant Dutch team.

Given that the US suffered a rare defeat to open these Games, as well as a goalless draw against Australia, this may not be the dominant USA team of old. But after missing the podium in 2016, the Americans can likely smell glory already and it will take a bold performance to beat them.

USA vs Canada Key Stats

USA
VS
Canada
2-1-1 Record At Tokyo 2020 2-0-2
8 Goals For 4
1.38 Goals Per 90 Minutes 0.92
6 Goals Against 3
Quarterfinalist 2016 Olympics Performance Bronze

Championship Pedigree

Since the meeting in the 2012 Olympics, Canada and the U.S. have played nine times, with the Americans grabbing seven victories to go along with the two draws. They have also been the No. 1 team in the world rankings since 2015, when they won the first of back-to-back World Cups.

In addition to Rapinoe and Morgan, the U.S. also has Carli Lloyd, Tobin Heath, Becky Sauerbrunn and Kelley O’Hara, who were all part of that London Olympic-winning roster. Many of those players did their part to ensure the US got past a youthful Netherlands squad that was maybe lacking in belief that it could beat the US.

Now it’s Canada’s turn to see if it can go one better.

Best bet: Draw (+265)

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