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Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig & Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel: DFB-Pokal Semifinals Odds & Picks

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer News

Apr 29, 2021 · 9:47 AM PDT

Dortmund's Emre Can, from left, Dortmund's Erling Haaland and Dortmund's Marco Reus celebrate after scoring their side's first goal during the German Bundesliga soccer match between Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin in Dortmund, Germany, Wednesday, April 21, 2021.(AP Photo/Martin Meissner, pool)
  • The semifinals of the DFB-Pokal take place this weekend, starting with Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig on Friday
  • Borussia Dortmund host Holstein Kiel on Saturday with the final taking place on May 13th
  • Read below for two quickfire betting previews, the latest odds and picks

Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig kick off the DFB-Pokal semifinals on Friday. Their match is followed on Saturday by Borussia Dortmund against Holstein Kiel, the fairytale team of the competition, who knocked out Bayern Munich in the second round.

The winners of the semifinals will meet in the DFB-Pokal final on May 13th. Werder Bremen are the second-most successful team in the history of the competition, but they are massive underdogs for their tie with Leipzig. Dortmund are looking to lift the trophy for the fifth time.

Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total at DraftKings
Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig WER +1.5 (-117) | RBL -1.5 (-107) WER +850 | RBL -315 | DRAW +400 Ov 2.5 (-159) | Un 2.5 (+128)

Odds as of Apr 29

Werder Bremen have lost seven league matches in a row. Only a DFB-Pokal win over Jahn Regensburg, who are languishing in the bottom half of 2. Bundesliga broke up that losing streak. To say Die Werderaner is out of form would be a grotesque understatement. They face an RB Leipzig team coming off a comfortable win over Stuttgart at the weekend, and who beat Wolfsburg in the previous round.

Leipzig have got the better of Werder Bremen in both meetings this term, including a 4-1 thrashing on April 10th. Leipzig controlled possession in that match and were clinical in front of goal.

Leipzig are a good bet to enjoy another fruitful afternoon in the attacking third. Only Schalke has conceded more Bundesliga goals than Bremen since February 1st. The four consecutive DFB-Pokal clean sheets against favorable opponents aren’t of much use when it comes to predicting this match. Bremen’s struggles defensively are unlikely to disappear.

At risk of dropping into the relegation playoff, Bremen will be hoping for a boost from this match as they look to break out of a slump. Julian Nagelsmann will be dreaming of winning Leipzig’s first major silverware before he departs for Bayern in the summer. Unlike Bremen, Nagelsmann and Leipzig can focus exclusively on this tie with little to play for in the league.

Outplayed by Union Berlin at the weekend, and dealing with plenty of injuries, it’s impossible to back Bremen here. Leipzig should comfortably book their place in the second DFB-Pokal final in club history.

Pick: RB Leipzig -1.5 (-107)

Borussia Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total at DraftKings
Borussia Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel DOR -2 (-106) | HOL +2 (-118) DOR -500 | HOL +1200 | DRAW +550 Ov 3.5 (+100) | Un 2.5 (-125)

Heroics earlier in the competition hasn’t exactly swayed the odds in the favor of Holstein Kiel. Their recent form isn’t particularly impressive, with just one win in five league matches. They face a Dortmund team that has got its act together of late, putting up a run of four consecutive league victories.

Dortmund is looking to appear in its first DFB-Pokal final since 2017. Kiel is appearing in the last four of the competition for the first time since 1941. They have faced Dortmund as recently as 2012, however, with the favorites winning 4-0 in the quarterfinal. Having knocked out Bayern, Kiel is fearless, and they embark on this semifinal battle knowing they have already made history.

COVID-19 has hit Kiel in recent weeks. It’s been a contributing factor in their poor run of form, and has potentially derailed their promotion push as they aim to reach the Bundesliga for the first time in the club’s history. Their goalkeeper Ioannis Gelios has tested positive for COVID-19 and will miss this match, and Stefan Thesker is out after rupturing his Achilles, but other than that, they look to have a fully healthy squad.

It will be interesting to see how strong a team Dortmund name. Winning silverware would be massive for the club, but they have a pivotal match with Leipzig coming up. Squad rotation is possible, and they are already without Jude Bellingham, Mahmoud Dahoud, Axel Witsel, Marcel Schmelzer, Dan-Axel Zagadou and Youssoufa Moukoko through a combination of injuries and suspension.

Kiel has only failed to score once since September. Pair that with the attacking talent of Dortmund, and over 3.5 looks a good bet.

Pick: Over 3.5 total goals (+100)

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