A Djokovic/Nadal French Open Men’s Singles Final is Favored at Odds of +165

• Rafael Nadal has won the French Open in eight of the last nine years.
• Nadal won’t face a player ranked in the Top 100 until the third round at the earliest.
• Novak Djokovic has won each of the last three Grand Slams but hasn’t even played in the French Open final in either of the last two years.

The draws are out for the French Open on both the men’s and women’s sides, and with action just about to get underway, sportsbooks have posted a fun finals matchup prop. Of course, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are favored to be the last two standing but is there a better bet for two players to meet in the Final?

Who Will Play In The 2019 Men’s French Open Final?

*Odds taken 05/24/2019

Nadal Expected To Be In The Final

If there’s one thing we can quickly gather from the matchup odds it’s that Rafael Nadal is expected to be in the final. Four of the top six matchups have him as one of the options in it. That’s not surprising as he’s the King of Clay, is favored at this tournament and has won eight of the last nine French Opens.

While Djokovic-Nadal is the matchup that is expected, there isn’t much value betting it. The odds pay out at just +165. It seems a bit risky when you consider that Djokovic hasn’t even been to the final in each of the last two seasons. And remember, clay is not his strong suit.

Nadal Favored To Win French Open

Although I had some concerns about Nadal earlier in the clay-court season, the fact that he won the Italian Open right before this event shows that he’s got what it takes. I also like his draw quite a bit as he won’t have to face a player ranked in the Top 100 until the third round. He also has the easier side of things than Djokovic.

Nadal-Thiem A Good Bet

Seeing Djokovic lose to Nadal in the Rome final – including a 6-0 loss in one of the sets – weighs on my mind here. I’m willing to take a shot with Dominic Thiem coming out of his draw and not Djokovic.

Remember, Thiem made it to the final last year and the semifinals in the two years before that. He’s now won nine clay-court tournaments in his career. Thiem will probably have to go through Djokovic but he did that in Paris two years ago.

With a little more value on the board than the Djokovic-Nadal matchup, I would bet on a Thiem-Nadal final at +450.

Tsitsipas-Djokovic Offers Value

Taking a look at things from another angle, if it’s not Nadal in the final, my bet would be that it’s Stefanos Tsitsipas. The 20-year-old player from Greece has been fantastic in the clay-court part of the season, which included a win over Nadal on his home turf in Barcelona.

If you take a look at the odds, though, there appears to be a bit of a mistake. Tsitsipas-Thiem is at +400 on the board while Djokovic-Tsitsipas is on the board at +2000. Djokovic is favored to win his side of the draw, so this actually doesn’t make sense. The Djokovic-Tsitsipas +2000 payout is looking very juicy and that along with the Nadal-Thiem final will be my bets.