Australian Open Men’s Singles Round of 64 Odds & Picks

• The second round of the Australian Open begins on Tuesday
• Top seed Novak Djokovic and third seed Dominic Thiem will take to the court
• Where can we find betting value in the round of 64?

The first major of the tennis season is underway, and the field has nearly been sliced in half already at the Australian Open. The second round brings a nice assortment of big favorites, toss-up match-ups, and more than anything, opportunity.

We love this stage of the bracket. There is enough volume that you can pick and choose to find matches that provide a strong betting angle. You can additionally, look beyond the moneyline, with totals, handicaps, and alternative lines worth examining to see where the most value exists in these early stages of the tournament.

Let’s dive into the second round numbers, compare and contrast the players, and find some potential plays. Below are the odds for some of the biggest matches of the round, followed by our best bets.

2021 Australian Open Second Round Odds

All odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 8th

Grigor Dimitrov vs Alex Bolt

Observation is a big part of finding opportunities. Dimitrov, who ranked as high as number three in the world a few years ago, has been a hard player to get a gauge on recently. His first-round win over Marin Cilic was convincing and perhaps telling.

We have seen Dimitrov at a level that is competitive with the best in the world. He ranks 21st currently and dispatched Marin Cilic, who is number 43, 6-4, 6-2, 7-6.

Dimitrov started this year reaching the quarterfinals of the Murray River Open. He beat number 113 Alexei Popyrin in three sets in the third round and fell to number 71 Corentin Moutet in straights.

The Australian Open has traditionally been Dimitrov’s best major. He reached the semifinals in 2017, and two other times has been in the quarters.

This is the first time Dimitrov is facing Bolt.

A 27-year old Aussie, Bolt took a hiatus from the sport right around the time Dimitrov was playing his best. Since returning he has won four matches in Melbourne, two in 2019, one last year, and he needed four sets to knock out 89th ranked Norbert Gombos on Monday.

Bolt is ranked 166th in the world and made it as high as number 125 early in 2019. While he is playing fairly well right now, he isn’t a youngster with huge upside, a veteran that has experienced tremendous success or even someone unorthodox who might be a particularly tough match-up.

Dimitrov proved in his win over Cilic he is in good form, and we expect him to dispatch Bolt. All of the handicaps are reasonable plays, -4.5 games (-265), -6.5 games (-112), and -8.5 games (+250). Playing a little on each can set you up for a nice score if it is a blowout, and still make some coin if he wins by a more expected 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.

Pick: Dimitrov -6.5 (-112)

Denis Shapovalov vs Bernard Tomic

In much the same way that Dimitrov was impressive starting this year’s Australian Open, so too was Denis Shapovalov. Ranked 12th in the world, the 21-year-old got a horrible draw facing teenage sensation Jannik Sinner in the first round. After losing the first set, he gutted out a five-set victory that took nearly four hours and ended near 1:00 am Melbourne time.

Shapovalov reached the quarterfinals at the US Open in the fall. Seven times he has beaten top 10 players.

Tomic has never lived up to his expectations. A star in juniors, after turning pro he reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2011. Since then he has never gotten out of the fourth round at a major and has seemingly been distracted by a variety of strange on and off-court circumstances.

Tomic advanced past Yuichi Sugita in the first round after his opponent was forced to withdraw because of an injury. Tomic had lost the first set and rebounded to win the second 6-1. He was leading the third set 4-1 when Sugita threw in the towel.

It is nice that Tomic won his first major match since 2018 this week, but Shapovalov is a serious player and Tomic hasn’t beaten a player of his caliber in a long time.

Shapovalov to win in straight sets is -143. We like that and laying 7.5 games (-106). It would take a big effort, but -9.5 games (+290) is on the table too.

Pick: Shapovalov Win in Straight Sets (-143), Shapovalov -7.5 (-106)

Reilly Opelka vs Taylor Fritz

While these two Americans are both ranked between 30-40 in the world and are very close friends, they are wildly different players.

Opelka is nearly seven feet tall. He earned a straight-set win over Yen-Hsun Lu, a 37-year-old journeyman ranked outside the top 1,000 in the world, to begin the Aussie Open.

Prior to the first major of the year, Opelka split two matches with players outside the top 150 in a warm-up tournament. Last year there were more lowlights than highlights after the pandemic stopped play for everyone.

Fritz is the son of two pro tennis players, and he has reached the third round Down Under in back-to-back years. He needed four sets to beat 46th ranked Albert Ramos-Vinolas to begin this year’s event.

In his lone Aussie Open warm-up, he split two matches against Top 100 competition. Like Opelka, he wasn’t great at the end of 2020. That said, he won a head-to-head matchup in Antwerp. Fritz has beaten Opelka in three of four meetings on the ATP Tour, and was 2-0 against him secondary events. He is a pretty strong value at -124.

Pick: Frtiz (-124)