Cameron Norrie vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Odds & Prediction – Indian Wells Men’s Singles Final
- This most unpredictable Indian Wells wraps with Cameron Norrie facing Nikoloz Basilashvili
- Norrie is the favorite, but Basilashvili’s record in singles finals is far superior
- Read on for analysis, odds and predictions
Nikoloz Basilashvili was the +140 underdog against Taylor Fritz in their Indian Wells Mens’ singles semifinal Saturday. He won in straight sets.
In Sunday’s final (7 p.m. ET), he once again is the underdog against Cameron Norrie, who has won more matches on the ATP Tour this season than anyone outside the top 10.
Cameron Norrie vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [21] Cameron Norrie (GBR) | -2.5 (-130) | -190 | O 22.5 (-115) |
| [29] Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO) | +2.5 (+100) | +155 | U 22.5 (-120) |
Odds as of Oct. 17 at DraftKings.
Top 20 Beckons For Norrie
Regardless of Sunday’s results, Norrie, who began the tournament at No. 26, will be in the top 20 for the first time in his career (No. 16 if he wins, No. 17 if he loses).
If it seems like a late-blooming at 26, Norrie didn’t turn pro until 2017, when he was already 22.
After a top-10 junior career built outside of junior Grand Slam success, Norrie spent three years starring at Texas Christian University,.
| Player | Current ranking | 2021 Won/Loss Record | No. of Tourneys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) | No. 3 | 55-16 | 18 |
| Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | No. 2 | 50-11 | 15 |
| Casper Ruud (NOR) | No. 10 | 49-13 | 18 |
| Andrey Rublev (RUS) | No. 5 | 48-17 | 18 |
| Alexander Zverev (GER) | No. 4 | 47-13 | 17 |
| Cameron Norrie (GBR) | No. 26 | 46-20 | 22 |
Coming into Sunday, his won-loss for 2021 sits at 46-20. He’s played a few more events than most; but everyone ahead of him is in the top 10.
Norrie Routines Dimitrov
In the 6-2, 6-4 victory over Dimitrov on Saturday, Norrie was just a little better in every area.
He was more effective on serve (and his first serve average was even slightly speedier if his ceiling wasn’t as high).
Cameron Norrie in 2021:
– 46 ATP wins
– 20 losses (70%)
– 9 top 20 wins, 2 top 5 wins
– 6 finals (3 hard, 2 clay, 1 grass)
– Career high: 17+Cameron Norrie 2017-2020
– 51 ATP wins
– 60 losses (46%)
– 4 top 20 wins, 0 top 5 wins
– 1 final (1 hard)
– Career high: 53— Tumaini Carayol (@tumcarayol) October 16, 2021
He didn’t allow Dimitrov a single ace. He broke the Bulgarian four times in seven chances.
And he gave up only two break-point chances on his own serve.
Cameron Norrie vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Head-to-Head
| 26 (Aug. 23, 1995) | Age | 29 (Feb. 23, 1992) |
| Johannesburg, South Africa | Birthplace | Tbilisi, Georgia |
| 6-2 | Height | 6-1 |
| 1 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 5 |
| No. 26 (Oct. 4, 2021) | Career High Ranking | No. 16 (May 27, 2019) |
| No. 26 | Current Ranking | No. 36 |
| $3,491.341 | Career Prize Money | $6,721,491 |
| 47-20 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 32-24 |
| 1 | Career Head-to-Head | 0 |
Basilashvili Too Much for Fritz
After his 7-6 (5), 6-3 loss to Basilashvili Saturday, Fritz said the match was basically taken out of his hands.
The American barely lost a point with his first serve. But the only break point Basilashvili earned in the match, he converted.
When came time to convert one of his seven break points, Fritz felt he never got a ball he could pull the trigger on, in part because the Georgian did a great job protecting his own second serve.
I wanted to come out and play aggressive and attack, but I just really felt like I couldn’t get many chances to. I think all the chances I got to be aggressive were off of my serve.
Cameron Norrie vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Rotterdam (R32) | Indoor Hard | 6-1, 6-3 | Norrie |
Lefty Challenge a Different Ball Game for Basilashvili
Fritz said Saturday that no one hits the backhand harder than Basilashvili, and he wasn’t able to keep up with his own backhand.
But Norrie is a lefty, and those balls will go to his highly-topspun forehand. That completely changes the dynamic.
As well, Fritz said Basilashvili would send his forehand to that backhand with a lot of spin. Again, Norrie can counter that with his own forehand.
The Brit is tricky for most hard hitters to handle because the contrast between that heavy topspin forehand and a backhand that is flat as a pancake is super-effective at taking away rhythm. Basilashvili experienced that first hand when Norrie crushed him on a medium-slow indoor hard court in Rotterdam in March.
And Norrie wasn’t playing nearly as well then, as he is right now.
In January, we asked 🇬🇧 @cam_norrie:
“Who will have a breakout season in 2021?”
He called it. 👏 #BNPPO21 pic.twitter.com/Qm5jDdexww
— ATP Tour (@atptour) October 17, 2021
That said, Norrie is 1-6 in Tour finals; Basilashvili has won five of his seven career finals.
But neither has come close to as big an occasion as this one.
Take under 5.5 breaks of serve (-135), Norrie to win the first set (-160).
Best Bet: Norrie in Two Sets (+115)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
