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Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie Odds & Prediction – Rio Open Final

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Feb 26, 2023 · 12:51 AM PST

Carlos Alcaraz and Cameron Norrie
Aug 19, 2022; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) at the net with Cameron Norrie (GBR) after their match at the Western & Southern Open at the Lindner Family Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
  • It will be Alcaraz vs Norrie – Part II– in the Rio Open final Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET)
  • Carlos Alcaraz defeated Cameron Norrie 6-3, 7-5 in the Buenos Aires Open final a week ago
  • Read on as we recap their week in Rio, and make an Alcaraz vs Norrie rematch prediction

As the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, Carlos Alcaraz and Cameron Norrie have made their dates with finals destiny the last two weeks – to the Buenos Aires final last week, and now to the Rio Open final Sunday. Read on for a detailed analysis of Alcaraz vs Norrie.

Alcaraz vs Norrie Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[1] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) -4.5 (-114) -580 O 21.5 (-110)
[2] Cameron Norrie (GBR) +4.5 (-114) +380 U 21.5 (-120)

The Alcaraz vs Norrie rematch has closer odds than a week ago – -580 odds for the favorite Alcaraz, and +380 for the underdog Norrie. But will it be closer, or even go Norrie’s way?

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Odds as of Feb. 25 at FanDuel

Sweaty, Humid, Exhausting Week in Rio

If Alcaraz wanted to get a lot of match play as he began his season nearly two months late, he picked the right spot in the heat and humidity of Buenos Aires last week and, especially, Rio de Janeiro this week.

The 19-year-old looked about at the end of his rope in his quarter-final win over Dusan Lajovic Friday. But despite losing the first set to Chilean qualifier Nicolas Jarry in Saturday’s semifinal, he still had plenty to run away with it in the third, 6-7 (2), 7-5, 6-0.

In the 6-foot-6 Jarry’s defence, it was his sixth singles match in the tough conditions, after a couple of years trying to climb back up the rankings at the lower levels. He just hit the wall.

Alcaraz vs Norrie Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz
VS
Cameron Norrie
19 (May 5, 2003) Age 27 (Aug. 23, 1995)
El Palmar, Spain Birthplace Johannesburg, South Africa
6-0 Height 6-2
7 Career ATP Singles Titles 4
No. 1 (Sept. 12, 2022) Career-Best Ranking No. 8 (Sept. 12, 2022)
No. 2 Current Ranking No. 13
$11,924,947 Career Prize Money $8,478,219
8-0 2022 Won/Loss Record 17-3
4 Head-to-Head Wins 1

Alcaraz will now look forward to the second installment of Alcaraz vs Norrie.

Norrie Prevails Over Zapata Miralles

If Norrie knew anything about his semifinal match against Spain’s Bernabe Zapata Miralles, he knew his opponent would bring a lunchbucket effort and dogged determination.

And infinite patience, combined with enthusiastic defense.

But in the end, Norrie prevailed 6-2, 3-6, 7-6 (2) and was on court about 15 minutes less than Alcaraz, finishing nearly three hours earlier on Saturday evening.

Will either Alcaraz or Norrie have anything left for Sunday’s final?

Alcaraz vs Norrie Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2023 Buenos Aires (F) Outdoor Clay 6-3, 7-5 Alcaraz
2022 Cincinnati Masters (QF) Outdoor Hard 7-6 (4), 6-7 (4), 6-4 Norrie
2022 Madrid Masters (R16) Outdoor Clay 6-4, 6-7 (4), 6-3-3 Alcaraz
2022 Indian Wells (QF) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 6-3 Alcaraz
2021 US Open (R128) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 Alcaraz

Alcaraz vs Norrie – Buenos Aires Edition

It was just a week ago that the two hooked up in the Buenos Aires final.

It’s not as though they weren’t very familiar with each other; between the 2021 and 2022 US Opens, they met four times – all at the Grand Slam or Masters 1000 levels.

Norrie’s only victory came at the Cincinnati Masters, in hot and humid conditions but on a faster hard court. And even that took more than three hours.

YouTube video

In Buenos Aires, it was fairly close. Alcaraz just created a few more opportunities on Norrie’s serve, and thus was able to get away with a straight-sets win.

Alcaraz vs Norrie Prediction

This second installment of Alcaraz vs Norrie will feature an Alcaraz who has won eight straight matches. But he’s far less fresh than he was in Buenos Aires, which was his first tournament since last October.

Norrie is 17-3 on the season – no one else has as many wins. And he seems to be coming slightly the fresher of the two physically.

The Brit’s biggest problem, of course, isn’t physical form, but tennis form.

Assuming Alcaraz has enough energy to last, he’s a better clay-court tennis player.

Norrie, for whom it’s the third final in three ATP Tournaments in 2023, has been disappointed twice  already in 2023. The first loss came in Auckland, New Zealand, which is where he grew up. It was a title he really wanted. The second disappointment was just last week, so very fresh.

He won’t give it away; he never does. The outcome is likely up to Alcaraz.

Best Bet: Over 22.5 Games (+118)

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