Elena Rybakina vs Jelena Ostapenko Odds & Prediction – WTA Italian Open Semifinals

• Jelena Ostapenko’s hot form at the Italian Open has brought her to the semifinals
• The No. 20 seed will face No. 7 seed Elena Rybakina, the reigning Wimbledon champion
• Rybakina is a slight favorite in the Rybakina vs Ostapenko odds; we break down the matchup below

The Rybakina vs Ostapenko odds are nearly identical at all levels to those for the other semifinal between Veronika Kudermetova and Anhelina Kalinina, even though the latter feels like a closer matchup. But the Ostapenko factor is real. Read on for our Rybakina vs Ostapenko prediction for the Italian Open semifinals.

Rybakina vs Ostapenko Odds

At -172 odds, reigning Wimbledon champion Rybakina is a slight favorite in the Rybakina vs Ostapenko semifinal at the Italian Open Friday night. Former French Open champion Ostapenko is the underdog at +140 odds. Rybakina vs Ostapenko odds as of May 18 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Rybakina Catches Break vs Swiatek

Elena Rybakina was being thoroughly beaten by world No. 1 Iga Swiatek, early into the morning Thursday at the Italian Open.

Mostly, it was her own doing. She was spraying errors everywhere.

Then, in the second set, Swiatek suffered a thigh injury. And though she went off court to have it taped, it didn’t take long before she called it a night/morning at 2-2 in the third.

Swiatek had won 25 consecutive sets in Rome before losing that second set.

Elena Rybakina advances to the semifinals in Rome after Swiatek retires due to injury.

Final score: 2-6, 7-6(3), 2-2#IBI23 pic.twitter.com/MzaPSwvw96

— wta (@WTA) May 17, 2023

An imminent Grand Slam tournament, along with the late night and cold, raining conditions, are a recipe for this type of injury retirement. The Italian Open is a big title. But the French Open is a bigger title, and Swiatek was taking no chances.

So it now becomes a great opportunity for the reigning Wimbledon champion to pick off a Masters 1000 title.

Ostapenko On a Roll

Ostapenko’s bright and sometimes bizarre outfits have garnered more attention than her tennis in the last year or two.

But she’s a former French Open champion. And when she’s on a roll, she’s extremely dangerous.

It had been 4 1/2 years since Ostapenko had made a major quarterfinal, when she reached the final eight in Australia in January. So there have been moments this year when the tennis has been there.

In Rome this past week, she has dispatched the dangerous Sorana Cirstea, top-10 players Barbora Krejcikova and Daria Kasatkina and the unseeded Paula Badosa, who is a former world No. 2.

All but the Krejcikova match took three sets, and she played doubles as well.

And yet, she never looks tired.

Rybakina vs Ostapenko Head-to-Head

Ostapenko Leads the Rivalry

Rybakina vs Ostapenko has happened three times before. But this is the first meeting on clay.

The two wins for the Latvian came on a fast indoor hard court, and on grass.

But Rybakina defeated Ostapenko routinely in the quarterfinals at the Australian Open this year.

Ostapenko’s best stats come, surprisingly, on grass. But clay is second-best. The same is true for Rybakina although her Wimbledon run factors into a small grass sample size. Either way, Ostapenko has far more experience on the clay.

The radar gun in Rome is notoriously player-friendly. But even if players like Badosa and Coco Gauff have regularly clocked their serve in the 190s (km/hour), the power-serving Rybakina didn’t even come close to that against Swiatek.

If she doesn’t locate well, Ostapenko will get a play on it.

Rybakina vs Ostapenko Match History

Rybakina vs Ostapenko Prediction

Ostapenko will want to watch this highlight video from her win over Rybakina at Eastbourne. Conversely, Rybakina will probably want to avoid it.

Rybakina has benefited from two injury retirements in her four matches going in. Ostapenko is in better form.

If Ostapenko serves as well as she did in beating Badosa Wednesday, she has a legitimate shot at the upset in the Rybakina vs Ostapenko odds.

Rybakina vs Ostapenko Prediction: Ostapenko to Win First Set (+126)