Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Zverev Odds & Prediction – Erste Bank Open Final
- Qualifier Frances Tiafoe reaches the Erste Bank Open final with upsets over three seeded players
- His opponent, No. 2 seed Alexander Zverev, has beaten just one seed but has gone three sets twice
- Zverev leads the head-to-head 5-1 and is the strong favorite. Read on for analysis and predictions
This might well be the turning-point week in Frances Tiafoe’s career.
The talented 23-year-old has mown a path through the Erste Bank Open singles draw by upsetting three consecutive seeds.
In Sunday’s final (8 am ET), he’ll play the best hard-court foe of all the quality opponents he’s faced so far in No. 2 seed Alexander Zverev.
Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Zverev Odds
Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Frances Tiafoe (USA) | +4.5 (-135) | +400 | O 22.5 (+105) |
[2] Alexander Zverev (GER) | -4.5 (+110) | -575 | U 22.5 (-125) |
Odds as of Oct. 30 at DraftKings
A Trifecta of Upsets for Tiafoe
If you can upset a top player once, you can do it again, right? Except so far in his career, Tiafoe hasn’t been able to consolidate.
But after being down and out and then taking out No. 1 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the second round, he backed it up with a win over No. 8 seed Diego Schwartzman in the quarterfinals.
And then, in Saturday’s semifinal, he was down a set and 3-0. No. 7 seed Jannik Sinner served for the match at 5-3. And suddenly, the charismatic player nicknamed “Big ‘Foe” let loose.
He couldn’t miss. Tiafoe took five straight games, and the second set. And in the third set. the crowd fully behind him and Sinner looking absolutely shell-shocked, he finished the job 3-6, 7-5, 6-2.
Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Zverev Head-to-Head
23 (Jan. 20, 1998) | Age | 24 (April 20, 1997) |
Boynton Beach, Fla. | Birthplace | Hamburg, Germany |
6-1 | Height | 6-6 |
1 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 17 |
No. 3 (Nov. 20, 2017) | Career High Ranking | No. 3 (Nov. 6, 2017) |
No. 49 | Current Ranking | No. 4 |
$4,892,270 | Career Prize Money | $26,988,000 |
29-21 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 51-13 |
1 | Career Head to Head | 5 |
Going for Title No. 5 in 2021
If Zverev hasn’t reached the top step yet in winning Grand Slam titles, it doesn’t take away from his excellence in the best-of-three format.
Especially on hard courts.
STAT OF THE DAY❗️@AlexZverev has now won 24 of his last 26 matches after a 6-3, 6-3 victory over Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals of Vienna today.
Zverev is through to his fifth ATP final of the year—and he's a flawless 4-0 in the first four.
MORE: https://t.co/AnmpYuSyBc pic.twitter.com/AI0TiLiGrm
— TENNIS (@Tennis) October 30, 2021
There wasn’t much drama in Zverev’s 6-3, 6-3 semifinal win over 18-year-old Carlos Alcaraz Saturday, wrapped up in an hour and eight minutes.
The tennis was qualify. But Zverev used a tactic that could serve him well Sunday against Tiafoe.
Once again, he served at a high first-serve percentage level (nearly 80 per cent). He actually only hit 10 second serves the whole match. And he won seven of them.
Alcaraz didn’t earn a break point until the final game.
Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Zverev
Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | Beijing (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-2 | Zverev |
2019 | US Open (R64) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 | Zverev |
2018 | Paris Masters (R32) | Indoor Hard | 6-4, 6-4 | Zverev |
2017 | Cincinnati (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 | Tiafoe |
2017 | Wimbledon | Grass | 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 | Zverev |
2017 | Australian Open | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 | Zverev |
A Dominant Head-to-Head
Zverev has basically had his way with Tiafoe, with most of their meetings coming on hard courts.
When they met three times in 2017 (two of them at Grand Slams), the more precocious Zverev (just eight months older) was top 25 at the start of the season, and top 10 by the French Open.
The American’s lone win against Zverev came right after the German had just run the table in the summer heat, winning the Washington D.C. 500 and the Canadian Masters 1000 back to back – with the US Open looming.
Their battle at the US Open two years ago, though, was a bruiser.
Tiafoe Will Work the Crowd
Even if Tiafoe does gets the crowd fully on his side as he did against Sinner, Zverev has a lot more experience.
Sinner even admitted that Tiafoe’s…theatrical personality got to him after a time. Zverev has too good a record against the American for that to faze him.
But the German will have seen the way Tiafoe munched on Sinner’s second serve. And since his own serve can get fragile very quickly, Tiafoe will have to set the tone on second serves early on.
If he gets some to work with.
Can Tiafoe believe – a fourth consecutive time? Is it written in the stars? Zverev will have a lot to say about it.
And on an indoor hard court, in a final, the German usually has the final say.
He’s the heavy favorite. Which doesn’t mean Tiafoe doesn’t have a great set in him. If he does, it’s more than likely the middle set (+300).
Best Bet: Zverev and -4.5 games (+110)