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Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Zverev Odds & Prediction – Erste Bank Open Final

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Oct 30, 2021 · 2:31 PM PDT

Frances Tiafoe celebrates, ATP
Frances Tiafoe of the United States celebrates after he wins his semi final match against Jannik Sinner of Italy during the Erste Bank Open ATP tennis tournament in Vienna, Austria, Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021. (AP Photo/Lisa Leutner)
  • Qualifier Frances Tiafoe reaches the Erste Bank Open final with upsets over three seeded players
  • His opponent, No. 2 seed Alexander Zverev, has beaten just one seed but has gone three sets twice
  • Zverev leads the head-to-head 5-1 and is the strong favorite. Read on for analysis and predictions

This might well be the turning-point week in Frances Tiafoe’s career.

The talented 23-year-old has mown a path through the Erste Bank Open singles draw by upsetting three consecutive seeds.

In Sunday’s final (8 am ET), he’ll play the best hard-court foe of all the quality opponents he’s faced so far in No. 2 seed Alexander Zverev.

Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Zverev Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Frances Tiafoe (USA) +4.5 (-135) +400 O 22.5 (+105)
[2] Alexander Zverev (GER) -4.5 (+110) -575 U 22.5 (-125)

Odds as of Oct. 30 at DraftKings

A Trifecta of Upsets for Tiafoe

If you can upset a top player once, you can do it again, right? Except so far in his career, Tiafoe hasn’t been able to consolidate.

But after being down and out and then taking out No. 1 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the second round, he backed it up with a win over No. 8 seed Diego Schwartzman in the quarterfinals.

YouTube video

And then, in Saturday’s semifinal, he was down a set and 3-0. No. 7 seed Jannik Sinner served for the match at 5-3. And suddenly, the charismatic player nicknamed “Big ‘Foe” let loose.

He couldn’t miss. Tiafoe took five straight games, and the second set. And in the third set. the crowd fully behind him and Sinner looking absolutely shell-shocked, he finished the job 3-6, 7-5, 6-2.

Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Zverev Head-to-Head

Frances Tiafoe
VS
Alexander Zverev
23 (Jan. 20, 1998) Age 24 (April 20, 1997)
Boynton Beach, Fla. Birthplace Hamburg, Germany
6-1 Height 6-6
1 Career ATP Singles Titles 17
No. 3 (Nov. 20, 2017) Career High Ranking No. 3 (Nov. 6, 2017)
No. 49 Current Ranking No. 4
$4,892,270 Career Prize Money $26,988,000
29-21 2021 Won/Loss record 51-13
1 Career Head to Head 5

Going for Title No. 5 in 2021

If Zverev hasn’t reached the top step yet in winning Grand Slam titles, it doesn’t take away from his excellence in the best-of-three format.

Especially on hard courts.

There wasn’t much drama in Zverev’s 6-3, 6-3 semifinal win over 18-year-old Carlos Alcaraz Saturday, wrapped up in an hour and eight minutes.

The tennis was qualify. But Zverev used a tactic that could serve him well Sunday against Tiafoe.

Once again, he served at a high first-serve percentage level (nearly 80 per cent). He actually only hit 10 second serves the whole match. And he won seven of them.

Alcaraz didn’t earn a break point until the final game.

Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Zverev

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2019 Beijing (R32) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-2 Zverev
2019 US Open (R64) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 Zverev
2018 Paris Masters (R32) Indoor Hard 6-4, 6-4 Zverev
2017 Cincinnati (R32) Outdoor Hard 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 Tiafoe
2017 Wimbledon Grass 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 Zverev
2017 Australian Open Outdoor Hard 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 Zverev

A Dominant Head-to-Head

Zverev has basically had his way with Tiafoe, with most of their meetings coming on hard courts.

When they met three times in 2017 (two of them at Grand Slams), the more precocious Zverev (just eight months older) was top 25 at the start of the season, and top 10 by the French Open.

YouTube video

The American’s lone win against Zverev came right after the German had just run the table in the summer heat, winning the Washington D.C. 500 and the Canadian Masters 1000 back to back – with the US Open looming.

Their battle at the US Open two years ago, though, was a bruiser.

Tiafoe Will Work the Crowd

Even if Tiafoe does gets the crowd fully on his side as he did against Sinner, Zverev has a lot more experience.

Sinner even admitted that Tiafoe’s…theatrical personality got to him after a time. Zverev has too good a record against the American for that to faze him.

But the German will have seen the way Tiafoe munched on Sinner’s second serve. And since his own serve can get fragile very quickly, Tiafoe will have to set the tone on second serves early on.

If he gets some to work with.

Can Tiafoe believe – a fourth consecutive time? Is it written in the stars? Zverev will have a lot to say about it.

And on an indoor hard court, in a final, the German usually has the final say.

He’s the heavy favorite. Which doesn’t mean Tiafoe doesn’t have a great set in him. If he does, it’s more than likely the middle set (+300).

Best Bet: Zverev and -4.5 games (+110)

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