Karolína Plíšková vs Garbiñe Muguruza Odds & Prediction – WTA Finals Group Stage
- Former No. 1s Karolína Plíšková vs Garbiñe Muguruza meet on the first day of the WTA Tour Finals
- Plíšková is the slight favorite for the match, set to go Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET
- Plíšková holds a dominant 8-2 career head-to-head and is the slight favorite. We break it down
The last two times both Karolína Plíšková vs Garbiñe Muguruza qualified for the WTA Finals, in 2016 and 2017, they ended up meeting in the round-robin portion.
Plíšková won both. Most recently, in 2017, she won handily.
They meet again Wednesday on the first day of round-robin action at the WTA Tour’s final event in Guadalajara, Mexico.
Karolína Plíšková vs Garbiñe Muguruza Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| {3] Karolína Plíšková (CZE) | -1.5 (-115) | -135 | O 21.5 (-125) |
| {6} Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP) | +1.5 (-120) | +105 | U 21.5 (-115) |
Odds as of Nov. 9 at DraftKings
Plíšková Dominates Career Rivalry
Is it a rivalry if one player holds an 8-2 edge? Not a competitive one, anyway.
Some 18 months apart in age, the two have much in common. Career prize money is nearly identical. They reached No. 1 for the first time within weeks of each other.
Both are very tall. And both are considered hard hitters whose biggest weakness is their movement.
Even their won-loss records in 2021 are almost the same.
The difference is in the majors: Muguruza has two; Plíšková is still Slamless.
The 29-year-old Czech has won 8-of-9 against Muguruza after losing their only meeting on clay, back at the 2013 French Open.
The only other win by Muguruza came in the semifinals of the Cincinnati tournament in 2017; Muguruza ended up winning the tournament and became No. 1 a few weeks later.
Karolína Plíšková vs Garbiñe Muguruza Head-to-Head
| 29 (March 30, 1992) | Age | 28 (Oct. 7, 1993) |
| Louny, Czech Republic | Birthplace | Caracas, Venezuela |
| 6-1 | Height | 6-0 |
| 16 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 9 |
| 0 | Career Grand Slam Titles | 2 |
| No. 1 (July 16, 2017) | Career High Ranking | No. 1 (Sept. 10, 2017) |
| No. 4 | Current Ranking | No. 5 |
| $22,940,299 | Career Prize Money | $22,436,672 |
| 35-18 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 38-16 |
| 8 | Career Head to Head | 2 |
Plíšková Dominates the Power Game
Plíšková is the more powerful server. She gets more free points, and her flatter strokes enable her to hit more winners
And at the WTA level, she has proven herself to be the more successful competitor, with more titles.
This is Plíšková’s fifth straight appearance at the Tour Finals. She has reached the semis in her last three appearances and knew she was in more than a month ago.
Muguruza qualified for the first time in four years. And while she wasn’t the last to make it, she only knew her season would be extended a couple of weeks ago.
Karolína Plíšková vs Garbiñe Muguruza Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Australian Open (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-1 | Plíšková |
| 2017 | WTA Finals (RR) | Indoor Hard | 6-2, 6-2 | Plíšková |
| 2017 | Cincinnati (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-2 | Muguruza |
| 2017 | Indian Wells (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 7-6 (2), 7-6 (5) | Plíšková |
| 2017 | Fed Cup (1R) | Indoor Hard | 6-2, 6-2 | Plíšková |
| 2016 | WTA Finals (RR) | Indoor Hard | 6-2, 6-7 (4), 7-5 | Plíšková |
| 2016 | Cincinnati | Outdoor Hard | 6-1, 6-3 | Plíšková |
| 2015 | Indian Wells (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 7-5, 6-4 | Plíšková |
| 2015 | Dubai (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 5-7, 7-5 | Pliskova |
| 2013 | French Open (R128) | Outdoor Clay | 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 | Muguruza |
Guadalajara Conditions a Difference-Maker
This year’s event was desperate for a home after the Asian tournaments were canceled again.
It ended up in Guadalajara, Mexico, where conditions will make it a tough slog.
The elevation – 5,000 feet – makes the ball fly. That’s tough on the flatter hitters like Pliskova.
Before arriving in Guadalajara, Plíšková said she might adjust her string tension.
Muguruza said players who can control their power “will have more opportunities”.
The Spaniard has played a small WTA tournament in Monterrey, Mexico four times – and won it twice. Monterrey has less altitude than Guadalajara, but similar conditions otherwise.
Plíšková played Monterrey once, but that was seven years ago.
Thin Air Means Sucking Wind
The players best able to recover from long points in the thin air also will have an advantage.
With these two, there aren’t likely to be many extended rallies that would have them sucking wind. But Plíšková’s game is less effortful overall.
The Czech has arguably played better tennis the last few months, of the two. But it has been nearly three years since they last met, at the 2019 Australian Open.
Muguruza’s experience with the conditions will make the match more competitive than most of their other meetings.
But it shouldn’t change the outcome; nothing in their history can give her much belief.
Best Bet: Plíšková in two sets (+155); under 22.5 games (-150)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
