Kwon Soonwoo vs Frances Tiafoe Odds & Prediction – Japan Open Semifinals
- Unseeded Kwon Soonwoo is a surprise semifinalist at the Rakuten Japan Open
- He’ll face No. 4 seed Frances Tiafoe at 1:00 am EST Saturday, October 8
- Tiafoe is a solid favorite; we break down the matchup and make a prediction for your Kwon vs Tiafoe picks below
If the field at the Rakuten Japan Open wasn’t as strong as its rival in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, it still contained a lot of talented players.
And, above all, a lot of very consistent groundstrokers.
And unseeded Kwon Soonwoo has gone through three of them in impressive fashion to make the Japan Open semifinals.
Kwon vs Tiafoe Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kwon Soonwoo (KOR) | +3.5 (-115) | +220 | O 22.5 (-106) |
| [4] Frances Tiafoe (USA) | -3.5 (-110) | -278 | U 22.5 (-121) |
Odds as of Oct. 7 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Rakuten Japan Open Semifinals
Favored at -3.5 sets and -278 on the moneyline is American Frances Tiafoe in this match.
Early Upset vs De Minaur
Kwon reached his career high of No. 52 last November in the wake of winning his first and only ATP Tour title in Nur-Sultan (it was an ATP 250 a year ago; it’s been upgraded to a 500 this year).
But 2022 has been a struggle. And when those 2021 Nur-Sultan points dropped off the computer a couple of weeks ago, he found himself outside the top 100 again.
It’s not hard to see why; he hasn’t gotten past the second round of any tournament on his resumé in 2022.
He hadn’t won back-to-back matches all year.
Until this week in Tokyo.
Perhaps he was energized by a shock win over world No. 13 Félix Auger-Aliassime in Davis Cup, where Korea appeared in the finals for the first time ever.
Consistency to the Quarter-Finals
Kwon announced his arrival with a straight-sets dismissal of No. 6 seed Alex de Minaur – a player very much in his own style. It was his first win over a top-25 player in more than 2 1/2 years, and he didn’t face a break point the entire match.
He then went through Mackenzie McDonald in three sets. And in the quarterfinals, he surrendered just three games against Pedro Martinez.
🤯 We didn't quite see this coming! Kwon Soon-Woo sends @alexdeminaur crashing out of the Tokyo Open in straight sets https://t.co/UnpCfeCQLV
— beIN SPORTS (@beINSPORTS_AUS) October 4, 2022
Martinez got through the section that had contained No. 1 seed Casper Ruud. So Kwon didn’t have to face the world No. 2.
But all three of those players have a similar style to his own; more than anything, he outlasted them.
Tiafoe is a completely different opponent.
Kwon vs Tiafoe Head-to-Head
| 24 (Dec. 2, 1997) | Age | 24 (Jan. 29, 1998) |
| Sangju, South Korea | Birthplace | Hyattsville, MD |
| 5-11 | Height | 6-2 |
| 1 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 1 |
| No. 52 (Nov. 1, 2021) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 19 (Sept. 12, 2022) |
| No. 120 | Current Ranking | No. 19 |
| $2,191,490 | Career Prize Money | $6,878,350 |
| 20-23 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 30-20 |
| 0 | Head-to-Head Wins | 1 |
Tiafoe Hasn’t Dropped a Set
As for Tiafoe, a 24-year-old at his career high in the rankings this week, it’s been smooth sailing.
He was taken to a second-set tiebreak in the second round by Bernabe Zapata Miralles (and it could well have gone the distance). But it didn’t. And he ran through Miomir Kecmanovic, extended to a third-set tiebreak in his upset of No. 8 seed Daniel Evans in the previous round, on Friday.
Tiafoe’s on the come-up after his impressive run to the semifinals at the US Open last month.
Kwon vs Tiafoe Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Tokyo Olympics | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-2 | Tiafoe |
He had sort of been ambling along. Then he defeated Diego Schwartzman, Rafael Nadal, and Andrey Rublev before falling to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz in a five-set thriller.
🌎 Team World wins the Laver Cup!
Frances Tiafoe offers maiden victory to the red team thanks his victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas for the 13-8 vs Team Europe
(🎥 @LaverCup) pic.twitter.com/kLh750xEBY
— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) September 25, 2022
He also came back to defeat Stefanos Tsitsipas in a deciding match tiebreak to give Team World their first victory at Laver Cup.
So he’s nothing but confident.
Kwon vs Tiafoe Pick
As good a week as Kwon has had, he likely doesn’t have the extra gear required to get past Tiafoe.
Their match at the Olympics a year ago was pretty much a blueprint for what you would expect to happen on Saturday.
And Tiafoe is an exponentially better player now, then he was then.
There are a number of possible props that might work for this one in your Kwon vs Tiafoe picks, including under 2.5 sets (-186), and under 20.5 games (+150).
Best Bet: Tiafoe in Two Sets (-108)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
