Nadal vs Federer: Wimbledon Semifinal Odds & Pick
- The semifinals at Wimbledon will be played Friday, July 12
- The feature match is the 40th all-time meeting between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal
- The moneyline odds favor the Spaniard, despite grass being Federer’s best surface
For the very first time at Wimbledon, the Big 3 (Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic) have reached the semifinals during the same year.
While Djokovic, the top seed, is likely to advance to Sunday’s final and remains the heavy favorite in the odds to win Wimbledon, the match between Federer and Nadal (Friday, July 12th) is a virtual toss-up according to sportsbooks.
Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal Wimbledon Semifinal Odds
| Player | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Federer | +106 | +1.5 (-118) | O 42.5 (-102) |
| Rafael Nadal | -126 | -1.5 (-102) | U 42.5 (-118) |
*All odds taken 07/10/19
The Road to the Semis
One of the great rivalries in tennis history marks chapter number 40. Nadal leads the series 24-15 including a 10-3 mark in majors. Federer has won two of three meetings at Wimbledon.
Nadal is an 18-time major champion with 12 of the victories coming at the French Open. He has two Wimbledon titles, the last in 2010. Ranked number two in the world, Nadal has dropped just one set this year in London.
Federer is the most decorated major champ of all time with 20 grand slam titles. His eight victories at Wimbledon are a record. Number eight came in 2017 following a four-year stretch where he made the finals twice, and lost to Djokovic both times.
This year at Wimbledon, Nadal has lost one set and steamrolled Sam Querrey in the quarters (7-5, 6-2, 6-2). Federer has lost two sets including the opener against Kei Nishikori in the semifinals (4-6, 6-1, 6-4, 6-4).
Head to Head: Federer vs Nadal
These two legends have a long and storied history.
Nadal is one of the few players who is over .500 against Federer in his career, currently sitting at 24-15. That said, Federer has won seven of the last eight, and seven in a row that were not played on clay.
Surprisingly, they have only played three times on grass, all three at Wimbledon. Federer is up 2-1 on Nadal at the All England Club, but the last match was over a decade ago (2008).
While their existing Wimbledon history is ancient at this point, it’s worth noting that two of their three grass-court matchups went to five sets, while the other went four. Six of their 14 sets at Wimbledon have gone to a tiebreak, and the fifth set in their 2008 matchup ended 9-7 in favor of Roger.
Best Bet for 2019 Wimbledon Semifinals
As mentioned, this is the first meeting on grass for Federer and Nadal since 2008. Federer has reached just three major finals since the start of 2016 and none in the last five grand slams.
Nadal has never loved Wimbledon, but he is playing great, he’s younger and, when he’s healthy, is probably the stronger player at this stage. Take Nadal on the moneyline at -126.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
