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Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds & Prediction – French Open Men’s Singles Finals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Jun 12, 2021 · 6:09 AM PDT

Novak Djokovic looking into crowd, holding hand to ear
Serbia's Novak Djokovic celebrates winning the third set as he plays Spain's Rafael Nadal during their semifinal match of the French Open tennis tournament at the Roland Garros stadium Friday, June 11, 2021 in Paris. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
  • Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas had gruelling semifinals on Friday, but Tsitsipas should be fresher
  • The only man to beat Rafael Nadal twice in Paris, Djokovic is looking for his second French Open title
  • The world No. 1 is the favorite; we find value, and break down whether Tsitsipas can pull off the upset

After the extraordinary marathon win over Rafael Nadal Friday night, Novak Djokovic will try to turn it around in less than 48 hours and take his second career French Open title.

Stefanos Tsitsipas, who played earlier Friday, will try to win his first career major title of any kind.

Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds

Player Spread at DraftKings Moneyline Total
[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) -4.5 (-132) -315 O 37.5 (-114)
[5] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) +4.5 (+105) +240 U 37.5 (-110)

Odds as of June 12 

Tsitsipas Trying to Make Greek history

It is Djokovic’s 29th Grand Slam final. It is Tsitsipas’s first at 22 – he’s more than 11 years younger than Djokovic.

He’s trying to become the first Greek player ever to win a Grand Slam title.

Tsitsipas is the youngest major finalist since Andy Murray made the Australian Open final in 2010. That tells you how hard it’s been for the young guys in the “Big 3” era. Because it hasn’t happened since … the current “old guys” were the young guys.

Tsitsipas has the most clay-court victories on tour this year (22-3). But he’s 1-8 in his career against players ranked No. 1. On the plus side, that one win came against Djokovic, in Shanghai in 2019.

Extraordinary Victory for Djokovic vs. Nadal

Djokovic said his four-hour, 11-minute, four-set victory over Nadal Friday was one he’ll remember forever.

YouTube video

“Definitely the best match that I was part of ever in Roland Garros for me, and top three matches that I ever played in my entire career,” Djokovic said.

The 34-year-old will have about 36 hours to turn it around and adjust to rather different conditions during  an afternoon match.

It will be a little quicker, and the ball will bounce a little higher.

YouTube video

Djokovic vs Tsitsipas Head-to-Head

Novak Djokovic
VS
Stefanos Tsitsipas
34 (May 22, 1987) Age 22 (Aug. 12, 1998)
Belgrade, Serbia Birthplace Athens, Greece
6-2 Height 6-4
83 Career ATP Singles Titles 7
18 Career Grand Slam Titles 0
No. 1 (July 4, 2011) Career High Ranking No. 5 (Aug. 5, 2019)
No. 1 Current Ranking  No. 5
$148,092,073 Career Prize Money $14,136,302
25-3 2021 Won/Loss record 39-8
5 2021 Career Head-to-Head 2

Tsitsipas Survives Five-Setter vs Zverev

After winning the first two sets against Alexander Zverev, Tsitsipas could have saved himself a lot of energy if he’d been able to close out his semifinal win in straight sets.

But his level dropped, and Zverev found inspiration in desperation. The German won the next two before form prevailed.

Their five-setter took 34 fewer minutes than Nadal and Djokovic’s four-setter.

Djokovic Perfect vs Tsitsipas on Clay

Both of Tsitsipas’s career victories over Djokovic came on faster hard courts.

While the conditions for Sunday’s final (sunny, 25-26C) will make the clay as quick as it can be, it’s still clay.

The five-set win by Djokovic last fall in Paris came under radically different court and weather conditions, and Djokovic wasn’t playing his best.

The Serb should play better Sunday. But Tsitsipas now is a more confident player with more belief than he had last fall.

He will rise to a career-best No. 4, even if he loses. If Tsitsipas wins, he will bump Nadal down and move to No. 3.

Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 Rome Masters (QF) Outdoor Clay 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 Djokovic
2020 Roland Garros (SF) Outdoor Clay 6-3, 6-2, 5-7, 4-6, 6-1 Djokovic
2020 Dubai (F) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-4 Djokovic
2019 Masters Paris (QF) Indoor Hard 6-1, 6-2 Djokovic
2019 Masters Shanghai (QF) Outdoor Hard 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 Tsitsipas
2019 Masters Madrid (F) Outdoor Clay 6-3, 6-4 Djokovic
2018 Masters Canada (R16) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-7 (5), 6-3 Tsitsipas

If Djokovic doesn’t answer the bell physically, Tsitsipas has every chance to win it.

But the Serb doesn’t plan to play again until Wimbledon, so he’ll leave it all out there in a rare recent opportunity to win the French (and his 19th major).

Few expect this to go straight sets either way. But if it does go the distance, you’d expect Tsitsipas’s youth and fresher physical state to prevail. That makes those odds (+850) rather tempting. But there’s no way to really know that before the match.

The outcome will likely be somewhere in between.

Take Tsitsipas to win the first set (+175) as his 34-year-old opponent hasn’t been the quickest starter, and might need some time to fully loosen up.

And it won’t be short. Take the over 41.5 total games at +155.

Best Bet: Novak Djokovic in four sets (+295)

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