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Rafael Nadal vs Alexander Zverev Odds & Prediction – Madrid Open Quarterfinals

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

Updated May 6, 2021 · 7:42 PM PDT

Rafael Nadal hitting a backhand return during a tennis match.
Spain's Rafael Nadal hits a backhand return to Greece's Stefanos Tsitsipas during their match at the Australian Open Tennis championships in Melbourne, Australia, Wednesday, Feb. 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Hamish Blair)
  • Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev will face each other in the quarterfinals of the Madrid Open on Friday, May 7th
  • This will be Nadal’s 15th Madrid quarterfinal appearance
  • Continue below for the match odds and how each player has done with the tournament so far

No. 1 seed Rafael Nadal will take on fifth seed Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals of the Madrid Open on Friday. The two players are set to take the court at 9:00 AM ET.

Neither player has dropped a set this tournament in the two matches they’ve played. It’s safe to say that Nadal enters every clay court match as the favorite, and this match is no different as he enters as the heavy favorite.

Will Nadal be one step closer to winning his sixth trophy at the tournament, or will Zverev upset the King of Clay? Take a look at the odds below and our best bet predictions.

Rafael Nadal vs Alexander Zverev Madrid Open Quarterfinal Odds

Player Spread at Moneyline Total
[1] Rafael Nadal -4.5 (-132) -480 Ov 21.5 (+100)
[5] Alexander Zverev +4.5 (+104) +350 Un 21.5 (-127)

Odds as of May 6th

The King of Clay

Top seed Nadal defeated Australian Alexei Popyrin 6-3, 6-3 to reach his 15th Madrid Open quarterfinal match as he continues his bid for his sixth title here in Madrid.

In his Round of 16 match, Nadal was able to convert four of his six break points and managed a 72 win percentage when he landed his first serve.

Popyrin was handed a tough task for his first Round of 16 appearance at an ATP Masters 1000 tournament when he had to go up against Nadal. But he came out strong and Nadal found himself down 0-40 in his first service game at 0-1. But Nadal was able to turn it around and will record a fairly straightforward win in just under an hour and a half.

Nadal has eased his way through his first two matches here in Madrid, only losing nine games and has yet to drop a set.

Zverev Continues to Impress

2018 Madrid Open champion defeated Dan Evans 6-3, 7(7)-6(3) on Thursday to earn a spot in the final eight in Madrid. Zverev had a tough start to the clay court season this year, but has had back-to-back straight set wins here, and looks to be back on track.

In his Round of 16 match against Evans, Zverev record seven aces and a 80 percent win percentage when landing his first serve. But be only manage to land 60 percent of his first serves and recorded six double faults.

The German will have to tighten up that part of his game against Nadal, but overall he does look to be playing with more confidence this tournament.

Zverev now looks to take on Nadal in the quarters. The German has beat the Spaniard in their last two meetings, but has never been able to defeat him on clay. Could Zverev win his second title in Madrid this week?

Head-to-Head & Best Bet

No stranger to one another, this is the eighth meeting between these two players. Nadal currently hold the edge with a 5-2 head-to-head record, and has won their three previous meetings on clay.

But Zverev recorded the win in their last meeting that came in the semifinals of the 2020 Paris Masters, defeating Nadal 6-4, 7-5.

Nadal vs Zverev Head-to-Head Stats

Nadal
VS
Zverev
2 ATP Ranking 6
34 Age 24
87 Career Titles 14
1015/206 Career W/L 262/132
1 YTD Titles 1
11/2 YTD W/L 11/7
5 Head-to-Head Wins 2

It’s no surprise that Nadal is heading into this match as the heavy favorite. As he should be, he’s been dubbed the King of Clay.

But look for Zverev’s serve to give Nadal some trouble, as it does most of his opponents. But Nadal’s just too good on clay to really bet against in matches like this. It’s also worth noting Nadal’s record on the year, he’s only lost two matches in 2021, losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas at the Australian Open quarterfinals and Andrey Rublev at the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals.

This is bound to be a tight, competitive match, but Nadal has mastered the surface with 60 of his 87 career singles titles won on clay courts. There’s really no reason why Nadal shouldn’t book his spot in the semifinals at the Madrid Open this year.

The Pick: Nadal (-480) OR Nadal 2-0 (-152)


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